Idea of Islamic State gaining even while territory is lost (UPI)

By M D Nalapat

Despite triumphal assertions from capitals such as Baghdad that the Islamic State has been "defeated" in Iraq and Syria, and that its self-professed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is on the run, the organization has in reality mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including the United States and India.

In fact, these countries have been given priority in recruitment efforts, in view of their large and technologically educated populations. Embracing a "recruitment lite" model that involves minimum contact and assistance from ISIS Center, the terror organization has made attacks directed against the globe's two largest democracies a priority. IS itself is a mutation of al-Qaida that formed in the aftermath of the 2011 "Arab Spring," when the perception took root within Wahhabi extremist clusters that long-dominant traditional rulership structures in Arab countries were disintegrating, and that this was their opportunity to move toward direct control of populations.

Around $13 billion in cash and weaponry flowed during 2011-13 to those who were described by intelligence agencies within NATO and its allies as "freedom fighters." The bulk of this went to groups that subsequently melded and outed themselves as IS. The assistance given to IS elements ensured the takeover of extensive territories in Iraq and Syria, especially during 2014. To date, these advances have not been fully rolled back, and as a consequence, IS has gained in traction and thereby won over several tens of thousands of committed fighters across the globe, with many more acting as auxiliaries and sympathizers.

Among the reasons for its continuing lethality is the fact that to NATO and its allies, in effect the Shiite alliance (and its Russian partner) is regarded as representing a bigger threat than IS. And to the regional partners of the United States, the Kurds are more worthy of military action than IS.

Toxic 'idea of ISIS'

More than exploding across some regions of Iraq, Syria and pockets in North and other parts of Africa, a worrisome factor is that the "idea of ISIS" is not only still strong, but is gaining in potency across the globe. A cousin of Nazi philosophy, the creed inverts cruelty as virtue and exalts the outing of sadistic tendencies within its followers. The theology of the organization is minimal in a scholastic sense, with the emphasis being on the celebration of grotesque killings and the sanctification of acts of terror.

During 2015-16, the self-willed absence of a knockout blow against IS in the Mideast by the Obama administration led to a spread of the belief among impressionable minds worldwide that the organization is the seat of power of a new "caliph," who will lead the war against the "crusaders." The primary method of indoctrination used by IS is the Internet, especially the "deep web." This still remains an attractive, and largely undisrupted, channel. Video and other radical content may have declined in quantity and frequency, as declared by some IS watchers, but more than numbers, what counts for the organization is the fanaticism and confidence of those still signing up, and this is building up with each terror attack

Al-Qaida used as cannon fodder those individuals with only a rudimentary familiarity with theology, such as the 19 who carried out the 9/11 mass terror attacks on the United States in 2001. However, many of those who have been involved in acts traceable to IS have in the past shown almost no interest in organized religion, and have thereby escaped the radar of security agencies until it was too late. Since mid-2016, when cyber interception of IS websites and chats intensified, the deep web has become the platform of choice for key associates and affiliates, as well as the use of extensively accessed websites, including those of a pornographic nature, where chat traffic easily gets disguised in a flood of "adult" commentary, especially when disguised in language that does not reveal the meaning and intent of the chats and messages sent and received. These are by users who operate from public Internet facilities and are therefore difficult to track down.

Winning recruits

An intelligence community estimate is that only about 300 Indians have shown "active interest" in IS and that even fewer have participated in its campaigns. In the United States, the figure quoted is less than a hundred. However, these are underestimates.

Ominously, IS-al-Qaida's social media campaigns have begun acquiring sophistication. The videos are of better quality and are released more frequently and over a broader geographical area than before. Such programs are winning recruits that are seldom from ultra-religious backgrounds. Indeed, many come from moderate family backgrounds, yet get drawn to IS because of the confidence and simplicity of its message. Also, clever use is made of standard religious concepts to change the import. These include frequent references to:

-- Tawhid, which rejects democracy as it is a "man-made"law.

-- Jihad, defined exclusively as an armed struggle.

-- Taqfir, the call to expel and expose unbelievers.

-- Hijrat, migration in the cause of jihad.

IS began its global campaign of terror four years ago by declaring itself the first truly Islamic country since the medieval age. This assertion added to the belief among impressionable individuals bred on a diet of hatred and contempt for non-Wahhabis that the time had come for volunteers to undertake "hijrat," but not necessarily to IS-controlled territories. This has instead come to mean not physical, but "thought migration" to the concepts and commands of the IS leadership. As a consequence, IS is shifting its focus from concentrations in specific territories to small (sometimes a single individual) groups that are dispersed across the globe and get into a mode of readiness to carry out "lone wolf" (or "wolf pack") attacks in target states.

The process of radicalization across the Internet includes:

(a) Online phishing: identifying those who are repeatedly making comments on violent posts or liking such posts, even though 99 percent of attempts to recruit don't work.

(b) Grooming a selected target via encrypted chat and message apps and through direct contact. Once trust is established, instructions are mostly on apps such as WickR, with messages self-destructing in 1 minute. After trust has begun to be established about bona fides, the recruiter asks the target to produce a video or audio so that he can legitimately claim that the potential terrorist is an IS soldier. Thereafter, orders are given to attack in ways that have now been noted as the signature of IS terror strikes. The actual execution of the attack is usually through knife and vehicle attacks where guns are unavailable. While there is sometimes live streaming of terror attacks on Facebook, Periscope, Twitter, etc, this is often dispensed with by fighters for fear of capture, even though the IS top command favors such methods as a means of demonstrating its continuing lethality. It has even claimed control for the recent Las Vegas shootings, but as yet no data has been released by U.S. authorities about the Internet-surfing habits of the perpetrator or whether he had recently been in locations known to host clusters of IS facilitators and motivators

A study of about 900 IS fighters' data from online social media platforms was carried out six months ago by analysts expert in the Middle East. The "likes" and "mentions" on tweets were tabulated in order to understand the influencers. The most influential of such hidden recruiters of IS were from the online world. The most important such recruiter was an Indian, based in Bangalore. The profile Shami Witness was a major cheerleader at the age of only 20. Seventy percdent of those who went to Syria from all over the world relied on what Shami told them, only because he was continuously tweeting about the latest events. The presence of such individuals is why India needs to keep its resources focused on IS and al-Qaeda.

Interestingly, less than 15 percent of jihadists in India, be they of the SIMI, Indian Mujahideen or other ultra-Wahhabi fronts, were educated in Islamic religious institutions. This trend is similar to that in the rest of the world, where numerous criminals and drug dealers, with zero association to religion, joined IS and overnight became practitioners of terror and its plots, more because they were discards in regular European society and had no hope of resurrection.

How to counter the idea

The idea of the self-declared caliphate, even if IS gets subjugated in the territorial war, can be fought only with a better idea, based on tenets revealed in the Holy Koran. Such a move is of immediate relevance in India, where action needs to be taken before the idea of IS gains in acceptance. Theology as preached by IS essentially posits that a Muslim is not a Muslim if he does not follow the organization's ultra-Wahhabi line. A grounding in the moderate practice of Islam can prevent Muslims from straying to Wahhabism and Salafism. The need is to popularize the true religion (rather than its extreme interpretation) in local languages and not just allow the main vehicle for such dissemination to be Arabic.

IS is conducting propaganda in 11 languages, hence the need to disseminate counter-content in multiple world languages. The fact is that the extremists are winning because of the Obama administration's willful failure to eliminate the territory controlled by IS when it had the chance to. Sufi and moderate tendency continues to remain that of the mainstream in India but these are losing ground in Indonesia and seems to have largely lost the battle to Wahhabi extremism in Pakistan, as also in several radicalized patches in the Middle East and elsewhere. Along with guns, what is needed to be deployed are ideas, and on this front, the Trump administration in the United States still seems to be searching for strategies.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/Voices/2017/10/16/Idea-of-Islamic-State-gaining-even-while-territory-is-lost/7001508157253/ 

India at centre of ISIS recruitment drive (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

ISIS has mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including India.

Despite triumphal assertions from capitals such as Baghdad that ISIS has been “defeated” in Iraq and Syria, and that its self-professed Caliph, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, is on the run, the organisation has, in reality, mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including India. In fact, this country has been given priority in recruitment efforts, in view of its (a) history, and (b) its large and technologically educated population. ISIS is a mutation of Al Qaeda and was formed in the aftermath of the 2011 “Arab Spring”, when the perception took root within the Wahhabi extremists that the traditional rulership structures in Arab countries were disintegrating, and that this was their opportunity to move to a higher stage of deadliness. Around $13 billion in cash and weaponry flowed during 2011-13 to those who were described by intelligence agencies within NATO and its allies as “freedom fighters”. The bulk of this went to groups that subsequently melded and outed themselves as ISIS. The assistance given to ISIS elements ensured the takeover of extensive territories in Iraq and Syria, especially during 2014. To date, these advances have not been fully rolled back, and as a consequence, ISIS has gained in traction and thereby won over several tens of thousands of committed fighters across the globe, with many more acting as auxiliaries and sympathisers. Among the reasons for its continuing lethality is the fact that to NATO and its allies, the Shia alliance (and its Russian partner) represents a bigger threat than ISIS, while to the regional partners of the United States, the Kurds are more deserving of attention by local militaries than ISIS. Turkey in particular has routinely assisted Wahhabi terror groups that are battling with US-backed Kurdish militias, thus far to no blowback from Washington.

IDEA OF ISIS

More than exploding across some regions of Iraq, Syria and pockets in North and other parts of Africa, a worrisome factor is that the “Idea of ISIS” is not only still strong, but is gaining in potency across the globe. The theology of the organisation is minimal in a scholastic sense, with the emphasis being on the celebration of cruelty and the sanctification of acts of sadism and terror. During 2015-16, the absence of a knockout blow against ISIS by the Obama administration led to a spread of the belief among impressionable minds worldwide that the organisation is the seat of power of the “Caliph”, who will lead the war against the “Crusaders”. As effective is the fact that the primary method of indoctrination and spread used by ISIS is the internet, especially the “Deep Web”. This still remains an attractive, and largely undisrupted, channel. Video and other radical content may have declined in quantity and frequency, as declared by some ISIS-watchers, but more than numbers, what counts for the organisation is the fanaticism of those still signing up, and this is building up. Al Qaeda used as cannon fodder individuals with some familiarity with theology, such as those who carried out the 9/11 mass terror attacks on the US. However, many of those involved in acts traceable to ISIS have in the past shown almost no interest in organised religion, and have thereby escaped the radar of security agencies until it was too late. Since mid-2016, when cyber interception of ISIS websites and chats intensified, the Deep Web has become the platform of choice for key associates and affiliates, as well as the use of extensively accessed websites, including those of a pornographic nature, where chat traffic could get lost in the flood of “adult” commentary, especially when disguised in language that does not reveal the meaning and intent of the chats and messages sent and received, usually by users who are operating from public internet facilities and are therefore difficult to track down.

MEANWHILE, IN INDIA

Some analysts have been quick to declare that the Idea of ISIS has not really found a platform in India due to the syncretic nature of Indian Islam and the centuries of Sufism that has fashioned the religion in India as an assimilated and subcontinent-centric faith. It has even picked up the concept of caste from Hinduism, with the “Brahmins” being the Syeds and the “Vaishya” being the Ansaris. However, terrorism is never about large numbers, except of victims. It is always the minority amongst the minority that drives recruitment. Since Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister in 2014, there has been a drive to portray not just him, but the entire country as being intolerant and disrespectful of its minorities. In view of the steady expansion of the minority population in India, as compared to its near-elimination in Pakistan, as well as the travails experienced by Hindus in Bangladesh, it is ironic that Dhaka and Islamabad are the two centres from where online rants about “Intolerant India” are most frequent. The expectation is that the spread of such beliefs will facilitate recruitment of gullible individuals into the ISIS network, especially those with a background in technology. ISIS is looking to improve the sophistication of its surveillance, control and destructive methods, and needs high-quality and highly committed brainpower to ensure this, which is again why India has been made a priority. In this country, the continued onslaught of ISI-sponsored (but Hindu-named) elements, inspired acts of violence such as “beef lynchings” etc., continue to feed into the global Hate India campaign of the ISI and its fellow travellers. This campaign is geared towards a widening of sectarian tensions and to instil fear in the minority community. The calculation of such elements is that even if 0.001% of 170 million Muslims in India radicalise to ISIS-Al Qaeda levels, India will have 1,700 recruits to extreme militancy. Given the small size of most of global ISIS cells, this number (once dispersed and organised) would be sufficient to cause more than a hundred thousand deaths through mass terror attacks.

WINNING RECRUITS

An intelligence community estimate is that only about 300 Indians have as yet shown “active interest” in ISIS, and that even fewer have participated in their campaigns. However, this is an underestimate. Ominously, ISIS-Al Qaeda’s social media campaigns have begun acquiring sophistication. The videos are of better quality and are released more frequently and over a broader geographical area than before. Such programs are winning recruits that are seldom from ultra-religious backgrounds. Indeed, many come from moderate family backgrounds, yet get drawn to ISIS because of the confidence and simplicity of its message. Also, clever use is made of standard religious concepts to change the import. These include:

Tawhid: which rejects democracy as it is a “man made” law.

Jihad: defined exclusively as an armed struggle.

Taqfir: the call to expel and expose unbelievers

Hijrat: Migration in the cause of jihad.

ISIS began its global campaign of terror four years ago by declaring itself as the first truly Islamic country since the medieval age. This assertion added to the belief among impressionable individuals bred on a diet of hatred and contempt for non-Wahhabis that the time had come for volunteers to undertake “Hijrat”, but not necessarily to ISIS-controlled territories. This has instead come to mean not physical, but “thought migration” to the concepts and commands of the ISIS leadership. As a consequence, ISIS is shifting its focus from concentrations in specific territories to small (sometimes a single individual) groups that are dispersed across the globe and get into a mode of readiness to carry out “Lone Wolf” (or “Wolf Pack”) attacks in target states.

The process of radicalisation across the internet includes:

(a) Online phishing: identifying those who are repeatedly making comments on violent posts or liking such posts, even though 99% attempts to recruit don’t work.

(b) Grooming a selected target via Telegram and through direct contact. Once trust is established, instructions are mostly on WickR, with messages self-destructing in one minute. Then the recruiter asks the target to produce a video or audio so that he can legitimately claim that the potential terrorist is an ISIS soldier. Thereafter, orders are given to attack in ways that have now been noted as the signature of ISIS terror strikes. The actual execution of the attack is usually through knife and vehicle attacks where guns are unavailable. While there is sometimes live streaming of terror attacks on Facebook, Periscope, Twitter etc., this is often dispensed with by fighters for fear of capture, even though the ISIS top command favours such methods as a means of demonstrating its continuing lethality. It has even claimed control for the recent Las Vegas shootings, but as yet no data has been released by US authorities about the internet surfing habits of the perpetrator or whether he had recently been in locations known to host clusters of ISIS facilitators and motivators.

A study of about 900 ISIS fighters’ data from online social media platforms was carried out six months ago by analysts based in the Middle East. The “likes” and “mentions” on tweets were tabulated in order to understand the influencers. The most influential of such hidden recruiters of ISIS were from the online world. The most important such recruiter was an Indian, based in Bangalore. The profile Shami Witness, was a major cheerleader at the age of only 20 years. 70% of those who went to Syria from all over the world relied on what Shami told them, only because he was continuously tweeting about the latest events. The presence of such individuals is why India needs to keep its resources focused on ISIS and Al Qaeda. Interestingly, less than 15% of jihadists in India, be they of the SIMI, Indian Mujahideen or other ultra-Wahhabi fronts, were educated in Islamic religious institutions. This trend is similar to that in the rest of the world, where numerous criminals and drug dealers, with zero association to religion joined ISIS and overnight became practitioners of terror and its plots, more because they were discards in regular European society and had no hope of resurrection.

HOW TO COUNTER THE IDEA

The idea of the self-declared Caliphate, even if ISIS gets subjugated in the territorial war, can be fought only with a better idea, based on tenets revealed in the Holy Quran. Such a move is of immediate relevance in India, where action needs to be taken before the Idea of ISIS gains in acceptance. Theology as preached by ISIS essentially posits that a Muslim is not a Muslim if he does not follow the organisation’s ultra-Wahhabi line. A grounding in the Indian practice of Islam can prevent Indian Muslims from straying to Wahhabism and Salafism. The need is to popularise the true religion in local languages, including Urdu, and not just allow the main vehicle for such dissemination to be Arabic. ISIS is conducting propaganda in 11 languages, hence the need to disseminate counter-content in Indian languages, so that the Sufi and moderate tendency continues to remain that of the mainstream in India, even while it is losing ground in Indonesia and seems to have largely lost the battle to Wahhabism in Pakistan.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/11275-india-centre-isis-recruitment-drive 

Economy roadblock hits Modi Juggernaut, midlife crisis for Modi government? (NewsX)

It has been little over three years since Modi government came to power and initially it did seem as if the government could do no wrong. But just when it seemed that they hit their high point, things suddenly started to go wrong for them. So, in this episode of The Roundtable, we are discussing has the government hit a roadblock? or to say has government started losing its sheen? Well to discuss this we are joined by an eminent panel including Manish Tewari, National Spokesperson of Congress; Pavan Varma, Leader of JDU; Narendra Taneja, National Spokesperson of BJP and Dr Madhav Nalapat, Editorial Director of The Sunday Guardian in conversation with our Senior Executive Editor, Priya Sahgal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zjd9eCJIcg 

India’s fake secularists and phoney liberals (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

The fact that a Dalit youth has been appointed as Head Priest of the Manappuram Shiva Temple in Kerala has been entirely ignored by the phoney liberals.

A dictionary would show that secularism mandates equal treatment for people of all faiths. Ancient India welcomed people of faiths entirely different from what was then practised within the subcontinent. Conversely, it would be difficult to argue that all faiths were treated the same during the six centuries when the Mughals ruled much of India, or during the three centuries when it was the turn of the British to be the masters. While there was probably discrimination against Dalits and some “backward castes” during what may be called the Vedic (i.e. pre-Mughal) period, it was the Hindus who were at the receiving end of discrimination during Mughal rule. The mistreatment continued into the British period. The new colonial masters ensured that much of the Hindu temples and their lands and properties that were left after the Mughal period were taken over by the state, while prime plots of land in the cities were gifted for the construction of churches. Hence, while there existed historical grounds for post-1947 affirmative action in support of the Dalits, as also some “backward castes”, the continuation by Jawaharlal Nehru and his successors of Mughal and British-era policies that discriminated against the Hindu community was uncalled for. Nehru seems to have been taken aback during 1935-46 by the growing support of Muslims in the subcontinent to the concept of Pakistan. He apparently came to the conclusion that the best way of preventing a re-igniting of separatist sentiments among the Muslims who remained in India after Partition was to give them additional privileges. The post-1947 provisions relating to minorities in the laws and practices of the country have instead had the predictable effect of increasing rather than reducing feelings of separation between “minority” and “majority”.

Unexpectedly for a BJP Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee retained in full the practices initiated by Nehru, rather than ensure a transition to genuine secularism through doing away with differential treatment by the Central, state and local governments to people of different faiths. Narendra Modi appears to have decided to put off to his second term such a rectification of colonial practice through phasing out the Nehruvian distortions of the secular ideal. The PM has instead been focusing his efforts on creating a cashless economy and a zero-tax evasion society during his first term. It speaks for the self-confidence of Modi that such feats are being attempted through the same colonial model of administration and law that the country has been choking under throughout its seven decades of “Independence”. Thus far, the Prime Minister has not accepted the counsel of those who have called for a complete break from the past in matters of both personnel as well as policy, and has decided instead on a policy of a more gradual incremental change.

Moving in lockstep with fake secularists are India’s phoney liberals. These look to cues from CNN and BBC while fashioning responses to events. Which is probably why they have almost entirely ignored such events as a Dalit youth being appointed as the Head Priest of the Manappuram Shiva Temple in Kerala. The concept of caste as a consequence of birth belongs in the same lunatic asylum as Adolf Hitler’s racial theories, and yet to the “liberals”, the temple appointment is not even a hundredth as important as demanding that the Rohingyas get resettled from Myanmar to India. The 22-year-old Yadukrishna represents the spirit of his faith before its calcification began through the adoption of “caste by birth”. The “liberal” media seems to be almost ignoring the new Manappuram Shiva Temple Head Priest and his guru, Aniruddhan Tantri, who is quoted as having correctly pointed out that the Vedic concept is that “one becomes a Brahmin by his or her deeds and not by birth”. If India had more genuine and less fake liberals, by now there would have been hundreds of Yadukrishnas conducting rituals in traditional style at Hindu temples across the land.

Another sign of the distance our country needs to traverse before it can earn the tag of being “liberal” is the shoddy example of the Indian Navy. Another of the numerous institutions in India still loyal to the hypocrisies and misperceptions of the Victorian era (at a time when the UK itself has moved far beyond such tommyrot), the Navy has dismissed simply for having undergone a sex change operation at her own cost, and that too while on leave. Both the Army as well as the Air Force have shown the absurd prejudice against the induction of women in combat wings to be wrong, and so should the Navy. Prime Minister Modi has often spoken about the need to ensure justice for women, and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should therefore step in to ensure justice for Sabi.

India is ranked even below North Korea in health and nutrition. The primary reason for this is a hypocritical and self-obsessed ruling class. “Liberals” in India such as Palaniappan Chidambaram oversaw the passing of laws that would have raised eyebrows even in North Korea or Saudi Arabia. 21st century India has become the easiest country in the world to get arrested in. Genuine secularism and liberalism is needed to cleanse the nation of the havoc caused by toxic policies. India has millions of truly liberal heroes and heroines such as Sabi. We have millions of genuinely secular citizens such as Yadukrishna. They need to be celebrated and empowered so that India evolves into the genuinely secular and liberal state that it needs to be, in order to thrive and even to survive.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11244-india-s-fake-secularists-and-phoney-liberals 

Russia pays price for Snowden (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
When Empress of the Beltway, Hillary Rodham Clinton, was Secretary of State and during the nearly two years of Obama’s second term when her writ among most of the senior denizens of Foggy Bottom was still absolute, more than two hundred employees of that globally consequential department were tasked with using (a) the internet (b) NGOs (c) the media, especially the more prestigious outlets within the Atlantic Alliance and (d) political parties and leaders. The purpose was to ensure the removal of a regime or a politician regarded as inconvenient (ie not responsive to “advice”) and his or her replacement with a substitute who was malleable. Hillary Clinton’s greatest success was the downfall of Hosni Mubarak.
Later, in pursuance of her longstanding view that Wahabbism was the natural order of things within most Muslim-majority countries, especially in the Arab world, Clinton backed Mohammad Morsi over his opponent. The victory of that individual was not the only success that the State Department’s regime change enthusiasts celebrated, there were more, and across the world. However, a geopolitical red line was crossed by the orchestrated overthrow of Viktor Yanukyovich, the Russian-speaking elected President of Ukraine. Eager to ensure the entry of Ukraine into both NATO as well as the EU, considerable effort was lavished on fomenting a Ukrainian version of the Oust Mubarak episode, including through NGOs and other organisations run by billionaires, such as the Omidyar and Soros networks.
Hillary Clinton also signed off on plans to ensure a blackening of the reputation of Vladimir Putin, who was unlike Gorbachev and Yeltsin, in that he believed that Russia was big enough to merit a foreign policy of its own, rather than follow the US line in the manner of Japan and (barring a few instances of contrary behaviour) the Philippines. The Clinton-led Putin-phobic network very soon came into the attention of the Federal Security Bureau (FSB) in Moscow, which inflltrated its own agents into the US State Department’s “Discredit Putin” campaign and thereby was able to fathom the range and depth of the operation. Given the ruthlessness and unforgiving nature of the 65-year old President of the Russian Republic, it is likely that he would not have wished Hillary Clinton to prevail over Donald Trump.
Indeed, Putin himself is being characterised in the largest media outlets in the country as so powerful that some of those elected to office in the US are in effect his puppets, a charge explicitly levelled by Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump during the Presidential campaign. Naturally, the proof for such assertions is shaky and scant. There must have been Russian intelligence intrusion into the 2016 campaign, but probably no more than that of countries that have for decades had substantial networks in Washington and other key cities, countries which include the UK and Israel. For the latter, the US is not just be best but the only external guarantor of its continued existence, an important factor, given the history of genocide of the Jewish people, especially in Europe during the third and fourth decades of the last century.
Given that some very large states still publicly call for the destruction of Israel, there is some basis for the sometimes disproportionate reflexes of the Jewish homeland to some global and regional events and personalities. Since January 20, the day Trump was sworn in, the avalanche of “anonymous but authoritative” abuse has been constant, so much so that the campaign (and not its target, Donald Trump) is hollowing out the ability of Washington to nudge and influence events worldwide, including in the manner favoured by the Beltway establishment, several of whose members and most of whose policies have been embraced by the US President, who has been battered by the constant threat of impeachment and removal, but who still gives evidence of fighting back at his detractors (and sometimes his friends).
What is the explanation for such an intelligence agency driven cannibalisation of the power of diplomatic intervention of Washington? Part of the cause vests in the fact that more than 900 names for consequential positions were selected by the Clinton machine even before the votes were counted, so sure were they of victory. These include several who are still in significant posts, and others with reach into the media and think-tanks, each out to revenge the disappearance of their chances because of the election of Donald Trump. Partly, it is because of the rage felt by hundreds of Republican faithfuls who have been excluded from consideration for top jobs because of their history of bad-mouthing Trump, including sometimes in fora directed by the Clinton machine. These want Vice-President Mike Pence to take over, as he would be unlikely to be as unforgiving of past insults to Trump as the current Head of State is.
However, the most important factor behind the demonization of Russia within the US establishment (including the vast swathes of media comfortably embedded in that entity) is the desire for revenge on the part of the CIA and other intelligence agencies, especially the National Security Agency (NSA). They seek to exact a considerable price on Russia (and especially Vladimir Putin) for having given asylum to Edward Snowden, the idealist who took seriously those who claimed that the US was always on the side of freedom and democracy. More than the gifting of Ukraine to the influence of the Atlantic Alliance, it is the return of Snowden to the US that would calm tempers in that city, and lead to the sputtering away of the infowar (or disinfowar) against the Russia led by Putin. The campaigner for freedoms has to be made an example of, something not possible as long as he has the protection of Moscow. Hence the campaign of calumny against Russia, in which President Trump is collateral damage.

https://pakobserver.net/russia-pays-price-snowden/ 

Is Rahul right in defending the dynasty debate? (NewsX)

This week in Cover Story we take a look at the dynastic debate that has been flagged off by a dynastic scion fed up of being apologetic about his succession plan. He didn't bother to defend dynasty but just claimed that this is the way India is run. Cleary, dynasty is a sore topic whether in Bollywood or politics. It has also permeated the corporate world - whether it's the Ambanis of Reliance, the Burmans of Dabur, the Goenkas of RPG, the Chauhans of Parle, or the Singhs of DLF Group. So is Rahul Gandhi right when he says so?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_2oE95Y9sc 

Avoid mistakes of Punjab and Kashmir with ISIS (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

Largely unreported in the media, Indian nationals who joined ISIS continue to be killed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and even the Philippines.

In the United States, those without medical insurance have to wait until an illness turns critical for them to be admitted to a hospital, despite healthcare in such cases being several times more expensive than when an ailment is battled at an early stage. Similarly in India, very often a security threat develops in a climate of official denial, often for decades, before erupting. Take Kashmir, where the Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Abdullah accord facilitated the entry of Wahhabi groups into the Valley beginning in the 1970s. Several hundred religious schools mentored by religious radicals were set up, even as hundreds were allowed to return from the Pakistan-controlled side to those parts still left in India. These were largely left alone by security agencies as being merely “pious youth”, yet it was these individuals who participated in the genocide of Pandits in Kashmir. For close to two decades ending in 1989, the steady indoctrination of Kashmiri youth by Wahhabi groups, intent on duplicating the Afghanistan strategy in India, was underplayed by security agencies. In Punjab as well, J.S. Bhindranwale was sponsored by no less than a Union Home Minister, because he opposed the political and personal rivals of Zail Singh within both the Congress as well as the Akali Dal. Those active in the ISI-sponsored Khalistan movement in Canada, the US and the UK were allowed free entry into the Punjab to spread their toxic message. Foreign financiers and publicists for Khalistan should have their visas cancelled. Those recruited by ISIS across India should not be indulged as “pious” or “misguided” youth, but as vectors of terror needing to be sanitised before causing mass casualties.

ISIS represents a more potent threat to the stability of India because of the boundary-less appeal of the core doctrine of the movement, which is that its leadership alone has the knowledge and the will to prevail over its foes and to provide a governance system that it claims would approximate that of the golden age of Islam. The takeover this year of Marawi in the Philippines by ISIS may inspire clusters elsewhere to attempt similar land grabs in locations where they confront inadequate or incompetent security forces. Takeovers of towns even for a few weeks would create a destabilising dynamic and spread of the movement within several countries where unemployment and misgovernance are rife. Add to that the potential for small groups of recruits anywhere in the world to commit localised acts of mass terror. These include the 80-plus attacks—with close to 700 casualties—carried out in Europe and North America since 2015. The region around India has already been systematically infiltrated by ISIS through groups such as the Jundul Khalifa Bilal al Hind and the Wilayat Khorasan. Security agencies need to keep pace with such an expansion. While two dozen modules in India have been discovered and destroyed, it could be that ISIS is still in the process of building up its network in India, before it begins launching attacks on the scale seen in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Security agencies need to work out counteroffensives that multiply the use of cyber and psywar before ISIS graduates from the stage of building up its capabilities to joining in the ISI’s existing non-conventional war against India.

Conservative (official) estimates are that around 400 Indian nationals have been confirmed as having been recruited into different cells of ISIS, but the number is almost certainly much more.

ISIS, the latest avatar of global Wahhabi terror, is distinguished by the sophistication of its social media usage and reach. Given the determined use of encrypted methods of communication by extremists, it is certain that a large proportion of new recruits to ISIS in India are as yet unknown to the security agencies. Conservative (official) estimates are that around 400 Indian nationals have been confirmed as having been recruited into different cells of ISIS, but the number is almost certainly much more. Worse, more than 4,700 radicals from Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been confirmed as having joined ISIS battle groups in Syria, Iraq and Libya. For them, India is a tempting alternative target, now that the organisation is being pushed back from the territory it has controlled since 2014. 

Among the reasons against taking in Rohingyas is the fact that the terror hubs in Bangladesh are as enthusiastic as their counterparts in Afghanistan and Pakistan in planning for “bringing back through jihad the glory of the past” to India. Largely unreported in the media, Indian nationals who joined ISIS continue to be killed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and even the Philippines. A recent casualty was a youth from Kasargod in Kerala, Mohammad Marwan. Over the past two years, estimates by global security agencies compute the number of Indian citizens killed during confrontations with ISIS as being in excess of thirty.

The earlier history of downplaying threats in Punjab and Kashmir until it was too late to save hundreds of lives should not be repeated in the case of ISIS. The virus needs to be eliminated while still in its initial stages of progression, as otherwise it could mutate into forms that may take decades to overcome.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11157-avoid-mistakes-punjab-and-kashmir-isis 

EU ignores Catalan & Kurdish Human Rights (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
THE European Union is lavish with its advice to countries, especially those that in the past were colonies of one or the other European power. Human rights is a subject brought up again and again, for example in the case of the Rohingyas, for whom Oxford University has sought to erase Aung San Suu Kyi’s decades of battle against military dictatorship for not taking in Rohingya refugees. The university removed even a portrait of the leader who set aside family and friends to serve years of house arrest and harassment rather than compromise by escaping to the UK, the country that was home to her husband and children. Churlish behaviour, especially in the context of so many from that university holding important positions in the same UK Govt that refuses to take in any Rohingyas, while demanding that countries much poorer open their doors.
Nor is there any rush to admit at least a few tens of thousands of the 600,000 Rohingyas who over the past year have been forced to relocate from their earlier homes as a result of strife. There seems no intent to even admit a few hundred of these unfortunate people, despite the reality that their lives would be spent in some squalid slum were they to be settled in South Asia, in contrast to the high-quality council houses that they would be entitled to in the UK. Indeed, it must be said that a rising proportion of such housing is now being allocated to those who have migrated to the country from trouble spots, even though the numbers are still far below those in, for example, Jordan or Turkey Given that the European Union has free movement between its internal borders, it ought to make little difference whether Catalonia were a separate EU member or remains part of Spain. It is clear that the government in Madrid does not have the sensitivity or the will needed to ensure justice for the disaffected Catalan minority in Spain.
After the disgraceful resort to force by the Spanish police over what remained an entirely peaceful vote for freedom, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of the Catalan people wish to be separated from Spain. The only reason why Madrid does not agree is that the rest of Spain wishes to continue using the wealth of Catalonia for itself, whereas an independent state would retain such revenues, except that share which would go to the EU. It is solely for the sake of the extra cash that it gets from Catalonia that the Mariano Rajoy government is willing to use force to subdue the Catalans. For national boundaries have very little significance vis-a-vis other member-states in a “boundaryless” EU.
Catalonia has the resources both human and financial to be a viable economy, and given the overwhelming support for self-rule expressed in the independence referendum, the EU needs to ensure that the wishes of this talented people needs to be granted. Spain itself may find that such a separation would do it little harm, and that it may become a more cohesive country as a result, with a political structure free of any ambivalence towards Spanish nationalism. Generalissimo Francisco Franco ensured that his DNA entered that of the Royal Family of Spain. While the King of Spain appears to be a perfect gentleman, the same cannot be said of his excitable Prime Minister, especially after his ego was puffed up because of the degree of warmth and praise shown by the individual holding the most consequential job in the world. Donald John Trump.
What took place in Catalonia reinforces the complaint of its people that they are being treated as second-class semi-citizens by the Spanish-speaking majority. Catalonia wishes to be free, and if the EU’s protestations of respect for human rights and democracy are worth anything, Brussels would ensure such a transfer of authority from Madrid to Barcelona. The Catalans should not be treated as shabbily as the Kurds have been. That nationality has been the strongest bulwark of NATO and its members for decades, and yet badly treated. Neither the US nor the EU wish to anger the GCC and other Arab states by supporting the call for an independent Kurdistan out of Iraq. The reality is that both Iraq as well as Syria are broken, and a partition is the only way out of the present civil war.
This conflict is overt in Syria and latent in Iraq, where the Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions have mentally separated from each other. In Syria, the Kurdish region, the locations where Wahabbis are in command and the rest of the country (which remains under the control of Bashar Assad) are separate enclaves in all but name, and a formal partition is called for there as well. As for Turkey and Iran, the Kurdish regions in both need to be given a high degree of autonomy, else separatist movements may gather steam. Unfortunately, at present it seems that neither Tehran nor Ankara appreciate the need to ensure that Kurdish people who are their citizens should be given rights and freedoms rather than repression.
Given the assistance offered by the Kurds, including in the fight against IS (where only they are an effective force against Daesh), it is an even bigger disgrace than the stony face shown to Catalonia by the EU that Brussels is doing nothing to prevent the Kurds from remaining victims of discrimination. Baghdad and Damascus will need to accept the inevitable and give the Kurds in the two countries the freedom that this ancient race has earned through its moderate ethos and its fighting prowess against Wahabbi extremists. The EU needs to look at itself and its moral imperfections before lecturing others about such matters.

https://pakobserver.net/eu-ignores-catalan-kurdish-human-rights/

Nation At 9: Does the government need to prioritise between railways and bullet train? (NewsX)

75 lakh commuters use Mumbai locals every day and their safety is under tremendous threat to the state of the bridge. Elphinstone foot overbridge was a tragedy waiting to happen. With MPs to Mumbaikars, all are raising a red flag. A day after the tragedy, Railway Minister Piyush Goyal did stock taking and made crucial changes to ensure that the safety of commuters is paramount. So much so that the Indian Railways is expected to work on a war footing to identify bridges that need fixing and foot overbridges will now be treated as essential and not an amenity. While these measures are being taken, the question we ask is when will the bridge be built? Previous Railway minister Suresh Prabhu announced the bridge in Feb 2016 and the tender is yet to be awarded. Does the government need to prioritise between railways and bullet train? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyt9spKIbyk 

Nation At 9: Bhagwat's speech a wake-up call for Modi sarkar? (NewsX)

A rising tide lifts all boats. A saying most apt for the Indian economy hoping to lift millions out of poverty, as higher growth benefits even the last man standing in the queue. But the economy is clearly now on a downward spiral. Something that's worrying not just BJP senior leaders like Yashwant Sinha and Subramaniam Swamy, who have warned of the economy going into a tailspin if corrective measures are not implemented. And it's now the ideological fountainhead of the party, the RSS, who has raised a red flag regarding the current health of the economy - not in a strident critique, but as a wake-up call. Mohan Bhagwat, in his Dussehra speech, from RSS headquarters has urged the government to junk existing policies to ensure job creation and safeguard small and medium sectors that bore the brunt of demonetisation and the GST roll out. That's our big focus tonight. While the government has been very dismissive of criticism from senior party leaders and opposition parties, will Bhagwat's message force Modi sarkar to do a reality check? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgf_sCp-R8k 

IAS needs a 21st century ‘Modi-fication’ (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat 

 

The way in which a necessary move such as GST has been implemented illustrates the problem created by 21st century policies implemented in a 19th century fashion.

 

Seconds after the midnight ceremony on 15 August 1947 transferring power within a newly truncated country from London to Delhi, those who took over from the British headed in limousines to official residences hastily vacated by their former masters. Had Mahatma Gandhi more time on earth, there is little doubt that he would have demanded that India’s new masters adopt a lifestyle more in sync with the people they were ruling, rather than emulating the British in their pomp. Both Nehru and Patel kept the structure and chemistry of British rule intact. To this day, key branches of the executive follow manuals and procedures that have their origins in the nineteenth century. The Indian Police Act or the Indian Penal Code, to name just two examples, seem poised to celebrate the second century of their being made the foundation for administration. The bungalows, aircraft, automobiles, staff and other accoutrements of colonial authority remain, including going about on horseback as an essential part of training of those passing the IAS, the IFS, the IPS and other services examinations. Those entering them believe themselves superior and remote from the population they govern, for such continues to be the ethos of their cadres. There is even a caste system that remains in force since “birth” (i.e. central services examinations), and which classifies individuals according to the service they have been chosen for, with the IAS clearly at the apex, followed by the IFS and the IPS. Just as the white man (or, in rare cases, woman) was assumed (by themselves) to have the ability to understand and to command disparate wings of government, the IAS in particular continues to—in effect—run even those institutions (such as Niti Aayog) that were explicitly set up to create a different paradigm of governance. Neither bad performance nor lifestyles far removed from salaries by too many have been permitted to stand in the way of regular promotions such that practically every entrant to the IAS reaches the top of the salary scale, and enjoys the benefits of One Rank One Pension without a whimper of protest from North Block.

Several of the members of the IAS are indeed outstanding, perhaps about a third of them, but another third are either venal or incompetent or both, and need to be turfed out. A third of the IAS should be inducted each year from high achievers in “lower” cadres, while the remaining third should come from outside the services, and be chosen for their track record of proven achievement and integrity rather than frequency in attendance at Lutyens and other durbars. Both these streams should be given the same conditions of service as the third who will enter through the examination route. 10-year renewable contracts should be the norm for every member of the IAS (as well as other services), with lifetime tenure (i.e. doing away with the 10-year limitation) being given only to a quarter of the entire service, including those from other services and from outside, based on an exhaustive review of performance carried out after 10 years of entry. The operative words in the IAS are “Indian” and “Service”, and the values of both need to be inculcated through ensuring that field experience be present in all cases. For example, officials in the Ministry of Defense need to spend an initial ten weeks embedded with the armed forces, of which at least 10 days should be at a forward post. Such experience alone will give context and depth to the decisions needing to be made by IAS officers about how to make the armed forces have high morale and performance. In addition, at least a third of Defense Ministry posts at all levels should be held by those in uniform, who should serve one to three years in such jobs. A 10-week embedding within the police needs to be carried out for those officials posted in the Ministry of Home Affairs, just as practical experience in a print or television outlet should be mandatory for those in the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, including members of the Information service. Those in the Commerce & Industry ministry need to have work experience in these before taking up their departmental responsibilities. Every five years thereafter, a practical refresher programme of immersion in field streams needs to be ensured for every official. The IAS is the pivot of the administrative system, hence the need to ensure a level of knowledge and performance sufficient to carry out the vow of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to transform governance in India from a 19th century to a 21st century construct.

The way in which a necessary move such as GST has been implemented in practice illustrates the problem created by 21st century policies implemented in a 19th century fashion. First, the measure ought to have been passed in the first six months of the new government. Extra time was sought to “improve” the GST but it is difficult to see just what the improvements were that led to a wait of three years. Second, the measure contains such abominations as disallowing inter-state items for those above Rs 75 lakh turnover. Aside from the fact that the floor for exemption should have been Rs 5 crore rather than a paltry Rs 75 lakh, the blocking of inter-state trade is retrogressive in the context of Modi’s efforts at uniting the entire country into a single market. Third, there are too many rates and categories. A fixed rate of 10% would have ensured higher output in succeeding years, and therefore greater revenues over a 5-year period. Lower tax rates ensure higher collections. Relying on the Big Stick as has been done in the case of GST and demonetisation is counter to the Prime Minister’s credo of a citizen-friendly “Minimum Government”. Treat the Indian well and he will respond with enthusiasm. Treat him badly and he will call upon the experience of our country’s thousand years of survival in conditions of slavery to game the system, the way it happened with the return of almost all the cash extinguished on 8 November 2016 to the banking system. Those who have faith in the Prime Minister are confident that Modi will act soon to ensure that GST gets refashioned into a genuinely 21st century policy. Over to the PM.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11115-ias-needs-21st-century-modi-fication 

Election results bring scant relief to Merkel (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
EMPIRICAL evidence shows that any party or individual assisting German Chancellor Angela Merkel loses out very soon, whether they be in her own party or outside. The Social Democratic Party lost a quarter of its potential vote share because its leader, Martin Shultz, seemed to be ambivalent about joining hands with the CDU-CSU after the polls. These were SPD supporters who did not under any circumstances wish to see Angela Merkel remain as Chancellor, even with Shultz as her deputy, and either abstained from voting or went over to the Left Party or to the Green Party. While the Left has not been offered a role in any future Merkel-led coalition, the leaders of the Green Party seem to be willing to exchange their principles for ministerships and a chance at governmental patronage for the first time since their formation.
This will dismay the many supporters who regard the CDU-CSU and especially Merkel as toxic, and almost certainly assures the Greens a decline in their vote share by the time the next elections roll by. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) paid substantially for its earlier role of being a tail of the CDU-CSU, but so strong is the pull of ministerial office (including the Foreign Ministry) in a context where German foreign policy (including that related to the European Union) is decided only by Chancellor Merkel and those who could be expected to follow her lead in such matters.
As for the SPD, the hunger of Martin Shultz for the privileges of office will get met through his becoming the Leader of the Opposition, although in reality the opposition to Angela Merkel will come from the Left Party and the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Despite months of demonisation of the party by the corporate-controlled media in Germany, the party broke through the 5% barrier with ease, and seems set to overtake the CDU in voter support, especially if Merkel remains in charge. The German chancellor cannot admit to her mistakes, and hence is likely to double down on them, including the opening of the door to citizenship or at the least residency to up to four million family members of the million refugees from North Africa and the Middle East that were admitted into Germany during the past three years, in the expectation by her backers that this would win for Chancellor Merkel the Nobel Peace Prize, no matter what the consequences for the population of Germany.
In fact, the UK and France ought to have admitted such a large number rather than Germany, for the reason that it was Paris and London (together with the Clinton supporters within the Obama administration) who led the implementation by NATO of the policies which led to the refugee exodus President Donald Trump appears to be getting increasingly distant from the views expressed by him on the 2016 campaign trail. He has shed his pre-election adoption of geopolitical stances of visionaries such as Franklin Delano Roosevelt and instead embraced the fossilised Euro-centric views of the Clinton and Bush White House years. It was dismaying to watch Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy hark back to the years of Spanish colonisation of South America and speak almost as the overlord of Venezuela, to approving bursts of comment from President Trump.
Certainly Nicholas Maduro is not the most suitable leader for that country, but to seek to roll back the social progress that was made under Hugo Chavez in the manner desired by Rajoy is to anchor policies to a past that has no chance of returning. Whether it be in Mexico or in Venezuela or in several other South American countries, the monopoly of money and political power in the hands of the Euro-elite are dissolving, although this seems to have escaped the attention of the Trump administration. President Trump was presumably not referring to the mass murder of indigenous tribes and the sadistic exploitation of human populations by Spanish conquistadors, when he spoke about the glories of Spanish history side by side with Rajoy, who leads a country that is bankrupt and kept fiscally alive only by the IMF and by unwary investors from the Middle East and East Asia.
The country has changed since the 1930s, and the leaders of the AfD are nowhere close in mindsets to what the Nazis were. Indeed, the head of the party has a live-in relationship with a person of the same sex as herself, and that too, from Sri Lanka and not from Germany or from the Nordic countries, which would have been the case had she been a racist. Demonizing the AfG is having diminishing returns, and that party is likely to grow further, now that its bete noire (Merkel) has been given another chance at office because of the ineptitude and uninspiring qualities of the Social Democratic Party leadership. Both the FDP as well as the Green Party are certain to lose popularity, once they accept ministerial positions in the CDU-CSU government. The Green Party and the FDP will only be supporting players, unable to change the direction of policy while being held responsible by the electorate for the failures of Chancellor Merkel.
In contrast, those opposing her will rise, including the SPD, now that it has made ir clear that it will not join hands with the CDU-CSU, a stance that ought to have been made equally explicit before the polls but was not, because of the hunger for office of some SPD leaders.Hopefully, the party base will assert itself over its presently weak leadership, and ensure that the party returns to policies that are more in tune with its instincts than was the case during the years spent as the junior partner of the CDU-CSU. Chancellor Merkel will not only have her majority in the Bundestag dependent on the Green Party, but will face opposition not only from the left (Der Linke and SPD) but – for the first time – the right as well. The AfD will make up in intensity what it lacks in numbers, and can be relied upon to figure prominently in newspaper headlines, as befits a party on the way up.

https://pakobserver.net/election-results-bring-scant-relief-merkel/ 

China’s newly-established Standby Peacekeeping Forces (CGTN)

China’s newly-established standby peacekeeping force of 8,000 troops will join the 2,500 Chinese “Blue Helmets” currently in operation to become the backbone of UN peace missions. What is China’s vision as a rising security provider? China began its participation in UN peacekeeping operations 27 years ago by sending five military observers to the Middle East in 1990. What are the new dynamics in global security cooperation? And, how will the UN prioritize politics while reforming peacekeeping? Will the UN take a more proactive role in pushing political resolutions?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTv-INNOa5Q 

Insight : The Challenge For States (Lok Sabha TV)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNZUActSpnY

Anti-graft drive critical to the future (China Daily)

By M D Nalapat

 

President Xi Jinping's campaign against corruption has made big achievements and his Belt and Road Initiative is already bearing fruit. In fact, they may be counted among China's historic policies.

China has punished far more dishonest officials, and far more strongly, than India. But that is reflective of the different political systems in the two countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the same view as President Xi: that improvement in administration is essential for boosting economic performance as well as public welfare.

In India, there has been a substantial increase in penal actions against corrupt officials since Modi took office in 2014. However, besides such moves, Modi is also harnessing technology to make the governance system less corrupt. An example is railway tickets and the issuing of passports.

Now that such items are dispensed online, corruption has been reduced. The more processes go online and become transparent, the greater will be the degree of honesty in the implementation of policies.

China has become a global internet power, with giants such as Baidu and Alibaba, and is, therefore, in a much better position to use digital systems to promote speed with honesty in decision-making, and on a much larger scale, than India, where internet coverage and bandwidth is still below desirable standards.

Modi has initiated several changes in the administration by, for example, beginning to recruit experts from the private sector to serve the administration. He would also like to see "minimum government and maximum governance" in India, and is working to achieve this in the same way as Xi is striving to bring the Chinese governance system to 21st century standards of performance.

In China, thanks to the strong action taken by Xi against even the highest-level officials found guilty of corruption, some officials no longer exhibit arrogance. They understand that their duty is to serve the people, and not be served by the people. Increased accountability among even high-level officials has been a welcome side effect of China's anti-corruption campaign.

The use of technology and the deepening accountability will ensure a better future for not only China, but also India, if the latter succeeds in its endeavor. Certainly the road ahead will be hard and long. But it is necessary for China and India to act if they are to fulfill the historical task of being great nations.

Over the past three years, more has been done to bring corrupt officials in China to justice than in past three decades. However, care needs to be taken to ensure the drive against corruption does not result in compromising Party and government officials' normal wellbeing. Being human, officials cannot be infallible. So as long as the overwhelming majority of the decisions they make are good for the country and the people, and their mistakes are not very serious, they should get the benefit of doubt.

Officials need to be made secure that genuine mistakes made by them, or the problems created by circumstances beyond their control, will not be used by higher authorities to punish them. Honest officials need to be supported and protected not only in the good decisions they make but even in some of the bad ones, provided they are not very too damaging.

But if officials make too many bad decisions or are slow in acting on urgent matters, they should be assigned to execute other, less important, tasks. It is equally important to reward efficient officials. In this way China's anti-corruption campaign can become more productive and convincing.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2017-09/26/content_32491488.htm 

Regional impact of Iraq’s Kurdish referendum | US-India security ties in volatile Asia (CGTN)

Iraq’s Kurds were expecting Tuesday the announcement of a big “yes” vote for independence, as authorities in Baghdad weighed how to respond to a referendum they considered illegal. Are we likely to see more conflicts in the region given fierce objections from Baghdad, Turkey and Iran? US Secretary of Defense James Mattis arrived in the Indian capital late Monday, marking the first visit to the country by a Cabinet-level official from Trump’s administration. During his visit, Mattis said the US would share some of its most advanced defense technologies with India. The two sides also discussed India’s security assistance to US efforts in Afghanistan and the growing threat of terrorism on the India-Pakistan border. How should we look at the US-India partnership in this context?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITXXJcQWSkU 

Sonia Gandhi should give Rahul full authority (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

Should he assume full powers, we may learn who the real Rahul Gandhi is. Is he more Rajiv Gandhi’s or Sonia Gandhi’s mind-child? 

 

Rahul Gandhi has, for some years, been following the path of Prince Charles, who has lived a lifetime still a Royal Retirement away from being the next monarch of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Given the demonstrated determination of Elizabeth Regina to serve her country to the end of her hopefully very long life, it would reasonable to assume that Charles may need the assistance of an attendant nurse before taking up the job that ought to have been his by now. Although the Prince of Wales has often been mocked by the commentariat, the reality is that Charles has distinguished himself across the decades by his idealism, sense of duty and flawless behaviour, never for a second giving off even a whiff of impatience at being made to wait so long before claiming his inheritance. It must be added that Royal Spouse Camilla too has won admiration, both for unbroken loyalty to her Prince Charming, as well as for the stoic manner in which the future UK Queen has faced multiple darts of innuendo and outright abuse. It was a courageous decision on Camilla’s part to have remained true to her feelings and face up to the consequences, rather than escape into what would have been a welcome obscurity. In the case of Rahul Gandhi as well, an absence of power seems to have brought out his better instincts, making him, for example, publicly oppose curbs on lifestyle, diet and speech, stances that were diligently kept out of sight during the UPA decade. Should he assume charge, will Rahul Gandhi order those who as UPA ministers and Congress Party advisers crafted so many discriminatory and punitive laws and regulations to reverse themselves by demanding the rollback of such contra-democratic measures?

Rahul Gandhi needs to reset Congress policy, if he is to engineer a recovery for his party. As important as the economy and the enhancement rather a diminution of 21st century freedoms is the fact that the majority community in India will no longer accept the second-class status into which it was relegated since the 1950s. What it asks for, reasonably, is equality of treatment with the rest of the population, rather than being discriminated against in multiple ways through no historical fault of theirs. Narendra Modi appealed to an equal future for all communities in 2014 and won. Those who harp on continuing the inequities of the past will continue to lose. 

Rahul needs to reset Congress policy, if he is to engineer a recovery for his party. The majority community in India will no longer accept the second-class status into which it was relegated since the 1950s. 

Will Sonia Gandhi’s stepping aside involve merely a transfer of position, but not effective power as well? Will Sonia’s long-term advisors continue to run the Congress Party, despite their dismal record in both governance as well as in politics? Should Rahul decide to continue with outdated minds, he would not be the only politician in India in danger of losing his future because of a refusal to cast aside those who may be personally close, but who are politically toxic. The only son of Rajiv Gandhi must get from his predecessor full freedom if he is to convert the Congress Party into a remodelled enterprise, the way Indira Gandhi did to great effect in 1969 and 1978. 

The UPA’s failures ensured the victory of the Modi-led BJP, and should the trajectory of the economy continue into 2019, the way it has been developing since the final months of 2016, there is a rising probability that by 2019, another 2004 may be at hand. What is clear is the unsatisfactory performance of the BJP in ensuring the needed double digit growth and its inability to rein in ideological hotheads intent on using state power as a bludgeon against those they disagree with. This may result in the Congress Party reaching triple digits once again. This would be the obverse of the Congress getting eliminated, as seemed possible till the aftershocks of bold but poorly implemented measures such as demonetisation and GST hit the economy. 

Should he assume full powers, we may learn who the real Rahul Gandhi is. Is he more Rajiv Gandhi’s or Sonia Gandhi’s mind-child? Is he the scion who sleepwalked through a regressive ten years of governance by those chosen for their jobs by Sonia Gandhi, or the politician who has lately been defending rights and freedoms since the Lok Sabha defeat? His party certainly needs a reset. More than the Shiv Sena, it was Congress Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh who persisted with “Sons of the Soil” regulations that made a mockery of a united India. It is the Congress government in Karnataka that is downgrading the teaching of English in contrast to Adityanath’s UP, and which is making the setting up and running of private schools impossible through controlling them in a manner certain to drain such institutions of global quality standards. Under Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Party has become a mix of Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Ram Manohar Lohia. Will it be any different under Rahul? Only by getting full authority will Rahul be able to answer this query. India needs a 21st century vision on the part of its political leadership and such an outlook can only be tested by action, rather than words. Rahul deserves a chance to be given authority over the Congress Party as complete as that which his mother won 19 years ago. Rahul Gandhi should not get anointed with the poisoned chalice of a ceremonial post, with actual power residing elsewhere in a party that has only itself to blame for its recent reverses. 

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/10987-sonia-gandhi-should-give-rahul-full-authority 

Growth continues to decline in India (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
FORMER Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is globally credited with being the architect of the 1992-94 reforms that gave a growth impetus to the Indian economy. The actual responsibility for the spurt in growth vested in Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao, with Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister refusing to lower taxes on domestic companies and taxpayers but slashing away at taxes on imports. Since the period when he was Finance Minister (1992-96), foreign companies have enjoyed preferential treatment in India, and several domestic companies have in effect become commission agents for foreign enterprises.
The last two years of the five years (1992-96) of the Rao administration saw the first Prime Minister from South India buffeted by political, attacks orchestrated by Sonia Gandhi, who was wary of a person outside the Nehru family acquiring too much power. Unlike Manmohan Singh, who was at her beck and call even while Prime Minister, the soft-spoken Rao refused to scurry to 10 Janpath (Sonia’s government-provided mansion) when ordered to do so. As a consequence of such lese majesty on the part of Prime Minister Rao, Sonia Gandhi encouraged a revolt against him within the Congress Party. This was led by four individuals very close to her: Arjun Singh, Natwar Sigh,N D Tiwari and Sheila Dixit, all of whom were given high positions later by a grateful Sonia.
The split in the Congress Party weakened it sufficiently to enable the BJP led by Atal Behari Vajpayee to become a powerful force in Parliament from 1996 onwards, finally culminating in the first BJP-led government getting installed in 1998. Vajpayee has remained grateful to Sonia Gandhi since then, and during his years in power, has shown her every consideration, something that was reciprocated when Sonia Gandhi took effective charge of the government through installing Manmohan Singh as PM in 2004. Both Sonia and Vajpayee remember their friends, and ensure that they are rewarded for their loyalty.
It was expected that a culture friendly to business would take root after Modi became PM in 2014, but thus far,the punitive powers of the taxman and other agencies linked to the Finance Ministry have only grown rather than been reduced. Instead of focussing attention on job creation through generation of higher output, the focus has been on getting a larger and larger share out of a diminishing cake of investment. As a consequence of such an approach, which is almost the same as what it was under Chidambaram, growth has fallen to less than 6% and the worry is that it will get further reduced in subsequent quarters. The overall business outlook remains gloomy. Several companies have had to stagger payments due to other enterprises, and there is therefore a funds crunch. At the same time, tax demands are raining like confetti on individuals and companies, and stories of harassment are gaining ground.
Modi’s most trusted minister is Arun Jailtley, who is both Finance as well as Corporate Affairs Minister since the new PM took office. Jaitley has incredible reserves of charm, and is loved by journalists in Delhi for his habit of ensuring that they be given information so as to write exclusive stories. He is easily the most popular minister where mediapersons are concerned. However, apart from his ministerial responsibilities, Jaitley also has to deal with a host of political problems together with his close friend, BJP President Amit Shah. Both Shah and Jaitley are known in Delhi as the right and left hands of Prime Minister Modi, and seldom does a situation arise when one or the other (or usually both) are not by his side. Modi trusts Jaitley and has in multiple instances chosen those recommended by the present Union Finance Minister for top posts.
This far, job growth has been below expectations. Banks in India are wary of lending money, because of the bad debts that they have accumulated as a consequence of giving loans to well-connected individuals who have no intention of paying pack the banks. There are individuals in India who fly around in chartered jets but who owed several billions f dollars each to banks in India that are vulnerable to political influence. Thus far,almost all of them have escaped any penal action, although the talk in Delhi is that Mdi s planning to make an example of some of the biggest defaulters. In India, crooked businesspersons get back the value of the equity they have invested very quickly.This is by over-invoicing imports and under-invoicing exports. Once they get back (illegally) the money they have invested, they run their companies in a corrupt fashion, looking only to swell their foreign bank accounts rather than ensure the healthy growth of the enterprises in their control. The Times of India is reporting that illegal cash by Indian nationals has jumped up in recent years, and are these days being parked in tax havens in East Asia that are outside the reach of US and UK authorities. European countries are known for confiscating funds at short notice.
An example is the cash they took from Libya. Few of the deposits made by Libya during the Kaddafy period have been returned to Libyan hands. They have in effect been confiscated. Hence, more and more, London and Geneva are being passed over in favour of Macau and Hong Kong for keeping undeclared wealth. Prime Minister Modi resorted to the drastic measure of demonetisation on November 8, 2016 in order to reduce illegal cash flows, but this seems not to have been as effective as government economists were expecting would be the case. On the other hand, it has done severe damage to the informal sector, which generates more than 70% of India’s jobs. Overall, the slowing trend in growth continues. Much of the global prestige of Modi comes from his image as the Deng Xiaoping of India, who can launch the country onto a fast growth trajectory. He has less than two years left in his present term to make that hope a reality.

http://pakobserver.net/growth-continues-decline-india/ 

Trump going the Ariel Sharon way (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
LET it be admitted that this columnist is an admirer of the Jewish people and fully supports the right of Israel to exist in safety. However, he is not among those who believe that the leaders of the (tiny in territory but large in global importance) state which came into being as a consequence of the devilish conduct of Nazi Germany, especially during the World War-II were always correct. They made several mistakes,including Yitzhak Rabin, but none more so than Ariel Sharon, who in 1982 inserted the Israeli Defence Forces into the civil war in Lebanon. This was between the Maronite Christians and the Shia, and Sharon ensured that the troops under his command took the side of the Maronite Christians.
The chain of events that such an intervention resulted in has had a severe impact on the security of Israel, which is the only country in the world where terror groups that are Shia seek to regularly strike. Israel would have been better served by adopting a more nuanced and neutral position rather than taking sides. Now, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is similarly taking sides in the ongoing rivalry (indeed, conflict) between the Shia and Wahabbi groups within the Middle East. The motivation for this has been his obsession with Iran, a country that admittedly gives substantial backing to groups in Lebanon and elsewhere that effect strikes against Israel.
However, Iran is not the only country giving such backing. In a greater or lesser way, almost every state in the Middle East has within it groups (and sometimes governments) that seek to promote those groups that resort to violence against the population of Israel. Less than 80% of the total amount of donations going to anti-Israel groups comes from within countries other than Iran, and yet the refrain of the Netanyahu government has been that it is only Iran that is the threat. The Prime Minister of Israel would have been delighted, had President George W Bush used force in an effort to effect regime change in Iran. Indeed, between 2001 and 2007, it was indeed possible without harsh collateral damage to US interests to take out the military in Iran through the use of air and naval power.
However, since then, Tehran has built up its retaliatory capacity, with the consequence that any conflict between the US and Iran would ensure a knockdown effect on the region, including on regimes that have for generations been allied with London and thereafter Washington. Given that, the nuclear deal reached between Presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani were a plus for the US, in that it has considerably slowed down the development of indigenous nuclear technology in Iran and made the achievement of nuclear weapon capacity close to impossible during the period that the agreement is in active operation. Obama clearly calculated that the post-agreement integration of Tehran with Europe and the US would ensure that the politics of the country became less theological and more conventional, as indeed would fit better the genius of the people of this ancient country than armed confrontation with the Jewish state.
Even as the Republican Party candidate for the US Presidency, Donald John Trump declared himself opposed to the nuclear agreement with Iran signed by the US as well as the EU with Tehran. However, once in office, the administration re-certified the agreement rather than disavow it, despite heartburn in some quarters about the change of stance. Indeed, there is no reason to walk away from the Iran nuclear agreement, in view of the fact that President Hassan Rouhani has ensured Teheran’s compliance with its numerous intrusive conditions, despite having got back much less in the way of concessions than was promised during the negotiations. Of course, the agreement is opposed by Israel as well as Saudi Arabia, which for different reasons seeks to overthrow the regime in Teheran at the earliest, ideally through the deployment of the US military.
The impact of such a move on oil prices, international trade and the overall economy does not seem to have figured in the calculations of those goading Donald Trump to launch cruise missiles and worse against the largest Shia-majority country in the world. Such a step would result in the US joining Israel as a global target of terror groups within the Shia community, an outcome that would be as destructive to US security as Sharon’s intervention in Lebanon has been for the State of Israel. Should the US withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, there would be little incentive for President Rouhani to continue with the agreement. Should he do so, the EU would seek to get further concessions from Iran, including in the form of withdrawal by Tehran of regional conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as the imposition of terms that would be even more consequential than was agreed upon in 2015. Kim Jong Un of North Korea would draw the conclusion that the US and its European allies are unreliable partners in any agreement, as indeed they showed itself to be in Libya in 2011.
Despite Muammar Kadhafi surrendering all WMD (or because of that), France and the UK led the charge against his government that ended in the gruesome murder of the Libyan dictator and much of his family and friends. Billions of dollars of reserves disappeared into the vaults of NATO powers, while the country itself has become a symbol of chaos and insurgency from the relative tranquillity it enjoyed during the decades when Kadhafi was in charge. Given the significant weakening of Rouhani’s position within the councils of governance in Tehran should Trump tear up the nuclear deal, it is a certainty that a withdrawal by Washington would soon result in the unravelling of the entire agreement. This would result in tensions between Iran and NATO, not to mention a spike in friction between the GCC and Teheran.
Overall, not simply regional but global stability would be impacted as a consequence of the US doing what President Trump has hinted will be the case, which is (after the Paris climate agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the tossing of the Iran nuclear deal into the nearest available White House waste paper basket. The chain of events that this will cause may result in the same consequences for the US as are being endured by Israel for more than three decades, which is to face the full fury of terror from not just Wahabbi but Shia groups. Walking away from the Iran deal would be as big a mistake for the US as intervening in the Lebanese civil war has been for Israel.

http://pakobserver.net/trump-going-ariel-sharon-way/