Saturday, 24 April 2021
Wednesday, 21 April 2021
Sunday, 18 April 2021
Saturday, 10 April 2021
Around 200 PRC ‘fishing boats’ have entered Philippines waters and despite love calls from Duterte to his counterpart in Beijing, refuse to leave.
Saturday, 3 April 2021
Nehru believed that he was neither ambivalent nor ambiguous, but on the side of ‘non-alignment’, whatever that was intended by him to be in practice.
Friendship is tested in times of stress. In the1962 Sino-Indian conflict, offers of assistance came only after the PLA had demolished the illusion of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Defence Minister Krishna Menon that “China would never attack India”. And the offers came with conditions that were not simply humiliating but impossible to accept for any government relying on the mandate of the people for its power. In other words, there was an ambivalence surrounding the support offered against the intrusions of the PLA that was very similar to that displayed by India towards those countries (the US especially) in the past. At the same time, countries belonging to the “Non-Aligned Movement” that had been lavished with such care by Nehru observed a studied attitude of “non-alignment” during the boundary conflict. True, Bhutan stood by India, but it may be argued that Thimpu was in fact aligned—with Delhi—rather than being part of the “non-aligned” movement. Every other country was silent despite requests from Nehru for support against what was being committed by the PLA on the Indo-Tibetan border, the frontier that had been certified by India as the Sino-Indian border from the start of the 1950s. There had been no ambivalence in the matter of India’s approach to the Peoples Republic of China, with Nehru almost beating Stalin in the race to be the first to recognize the regime founded by Mao Zedong in 1949. Throughout the 1950s, not just nibbling at but gulping down of vast tracts of territory on the part of the PRC took place, with the Government of India silent for much of that period. Nehru’s approach was a make-believe one that implied to the public that there were no intrusions nor any loss of territory to China, when the contrary was the case. Why Prime Minister Nehru chose to mislead the people of India is still a matter of debate, given that the Intelligence Bureau documented the expansion of Beijing’s control over territory that was part of India, while (at least in public) going along with Nehru that “war” was out of the question. Given his clean chit to China even in the matter of the incursions of the PLA, the ambivalence in terms of action of the US once the salami slicing of land by the PLA was replaced with securing huge chunks of territory during October-November 1962 could have been anticipated. With the takeover of most of Xinjiang by the PLA during the 1940s itself, it was apparent that Tibet was next. Nothing was done to enable that territory to defend itself, while the eager welcoming by Prime Minister Nehru of the PLA’s occupation of Tibet gave the needed fig leaf for avoidance of blame, at least to the British, who did nothing in the 1930s or the 1940s. These days, there are those across both sides of the Atlantic who favour a similar “hands off” policy with regard to the oft-threatened occupation of Taiwan by the PLA, except that unlike the Tibetans before they were overrun, it is not pacifist monks who are in charge of policy in Taipei. The PLA is likely to get an unpleasant surprise should they attempt a unification by force of Taiwan.
“Non-alignment” was in effect discarded in 1971 with the signing of the 25-year Indo-Soviet treaty. This had been masterminded by D.P. Dhar, who knew that such a treaty was the only way to prevent China from sending its forces across the Himalayas in the by then inevitable event of India moving militarily into Bangladesh to stop the genocide taking place there. Fortunately, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi shed the ambivalence that had characterised so much of India’s foreign policy and accepted Dhar’s advice over objections from others around her. Once again, as in 1962, the entire “non-aligned” bloc ignored the Pakistan army’s rapine and mass murder in Bangladesh and joined with almost all other UN member countries in looking askance not at Pakistan army war crimes but at the Indian Army’s rescue of the people of that land. Although he leaned towards the Soviet side even in the 1956 USSR occupation of Hungary, Nehru was not antagonistic to the Atlantic powers but simply ambivalent. In some of his moves, he even showed some affinity towards the US and its allies, while in other ways, he exhibited sometimes emphatic, sometimes mild, opposition. In later times, the term “strategic ambiguity” came into vogue (as did the phrase “strategic autonomy”, which referred to India’s sovereign right to buy whatever weapons it liked from whichever countries it chose). However, Nehru believed that he was neither ambivalent nor ambiguous, but on the side of “non-alignment”, whatever that was intended by him to be in practice. There have been PLA incursions and more salami slicing, especially since 2006, once the pacifist Manmohan Singh and his soulmate A.K. Antony were Prime Minister and Defence Minister courtesy AICC president Sonia Gandhi. These were substantially ratcheted up in scale in May 2020 and afterwards. During that encounter, there was no ambiguity about where Moscow stood. It was “non-aligned” in a manner that reflected its close relationship with China. In contrast, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper unapologetically took the side of India. There was no ambivalence there, and there ought not to be in India, a great power that is—given smart policy—en route to being a superpower. Neither ambiguity nor ambivalence will get India among the Top Three, only clarity of purpose and action. Such a clear policy matrix alone can ensure that genuine strategic autonomy is secured for India during Modi 2.0, especially against territorial and other forms of aggression (including cyber and sabotage) by hostile powers.
Saturday, 27 March 2021
It is up to Biden-Harris to decide whether the health and lives of billions of people should be preferred over an expansion of wealth of a few Big Pharma czars.
Former US President Donald J. Trump often talks about RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). What he is actually referring to are members of his party who are uneasy with the manner in which the Grand Old Party (GOP) since 2016 has been converted into the FTP (Forever Trump Party). Given that the 45th President still has a laxative effect on the Republican leadership, such a situation will change only if the US 2022 midterm polls result in an expansion of Democratic Party control of the House of Representatives and to a majority in the Senate. Even then, the Forever Trumpers will pass the blame onto the majorly intimidated RINOs. The transformation of the Republicans into Trumpers has come about because of the New York tycoon’s transparency in seeking to ensure that the world’s most powerful country retains its white majority, and then President Trump’s willingness to attempt whatever was necessary to ensure such a result. His problem is that the white majority, at least in the US, comprises substantially of folks who understand that skin colour is never a reliable guide to ability or culture. This is something that seems to have eluded Trump associates such as Stephen Miller, the mindset promoted by whom was probably the second most important reason why Trump lost, after the (then WHO-approved) export of Covid-19 to the globe from Wuhan in early 2020. The third reason was the manner in which President Trump filled his team with Wall Street faithful, after having declaimed against that reliable ally of the Communist Party of China (CPC) all through his election campaign during 2016, an error not repeated by Joe Biden, despite the influence of the Clintons and other (often closet) backers of Wall Street over Main Street within the Democratic Party. It was the perception that Hillary Clinton was close to Wall Street rather than to Main Street (while Trump was perceived as opposed to it) that led to the victory of the Republican candidate during the 2016 contest. Bernie Sanders has been a bit careless in permitting several elements close to the Wahhabi International and to those “useful idiots” of the Sino-Russian alliance who work at widening fault lines in US society rather than seeking an expansion of the moderate middle. What cannot be denied is that Senator Sanders and other idealists such as Elizabeth Warren have ensured that the Biden administration has the lowest number of Wall Street favourites on its rolls than was the case with either the Clinton or Obama administrations. This is probably a good enough reason why the FTP (Forever Trump Party) has ensured that within the US Congress, House and Senate Republicans oppose Biden-Harris even more viscerally than they did Obama-Biden.
The $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus package, to be followed (if all 50 Democrats in the US Senate free themselves of the clutches of the FTP, DINOs and Wall Street) by another $3 trillion, outshines even the New Deal of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Should it be passed and implemented by President Biden, the money would transform the US and reset its society. This will make much more difficult efforts by the Sino-Russian alliance and their domestic “useful idiots” to engineer societal division and consequent chaos in the US in the same manner that they are seeking to do in other democracies, such the UK and Germany, where violent protests have erupted in some locations in a manner not seen for a long time. In India, efforts have also been made to multiply faultlines and to bring tensions to a boil, but thus far these have been less than successful, although an anaemic performance by the economy may alter the situation. Unless the Republican Party reverts into what it was before it changed into the FTP (Forever Trump Party), the likelihood that the Democratic Party will do much better electorally overall than was the case in 2020 is high. The FTP’s only hope is that the benefits of the spending to the immense majority of US citizens (black, white, brown or other) will not percolate sufficiently for a Democratic sweep in 2022, or else be choked off at the start, through the opposition of DINOs (Democrats In Name Only).
It was President Clinton who opened the floodgates to greed through his changes in law involving financial institutions, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi together with Wall Streeters such as Tim Geithner who leaned on Candidate (and later President) Obama to push millions of homeowners onto the sidewalks to lavish money and ensure zero accountability to the few hundred individuals who used the Obama-Bush “reforms” to enrich themselves at the expense of not just much of the population of the US but investors across the world. The decline of US influence began in 2008, although Biden-Harris are attempting a comeback for a country still key to global stability. Among the ways in which this could be done would be to follow the guidebook (belatedly) adopted by President George W. Bush in involving India in the supply chain of the therapeutics that were needed to prevent the loss of millions of lives (mainly in Africa) because of HIV. There is no way that universal healthcare can become a reality in the US on an affordable basis, unless India is made part of the supply chain over the howls of protest from Big Pharma.
Big Pharma in the US has been boasting about the manner in which it has succeeded in developing vaccines for Covid-19. Transparency is needed on the lavish funding authorised by the Trump administration to select entities to ensure this, so that these may be compared with the much smaller amounts spent on developing equally reliable vaccines in India. Not surprisingly, there has been a manufactured outcry against vaccines produced in India, similar to the almost unbearable pressure brought to bear by the US Trade Representative during both the Obama as well as the Trump administration to fully dismantle the laws and procedures which ensure that affordable medication produced in India can save tens of millions of lives worldwide. It is now up to Biden-Harris to decide whether the health and lives of billions of people (including the entire population of the US) should be preferred over an expansion of wealth of a few Big Pharma czars, as took place during Clinton, Bush and Obama. The attempted reset of US policy by Biden-Harris has some way to go before success, but if DINO-FTP obstacles are overcome and President Biden succeeds in his reset, it could be a transformational period in the history of the US, even more than was the case under Franklin Roosevelt.
Saturday, 20 March 2021
Given the diversity and complexity of Sanatan Dharma and its nearly 1.5 billion practitioners, it is incomprehensible how the presumed tenets of Manu have been accepted as gospel for adherents of a uniquely tolerant faith.
Saturday, 13 March 2021
The purpose of the Quad is not to cause a war but to prevent a conflict by demonstrating even to the military-minded Xi Jinping that such a war will end badly for the PLA and its army of soldiers who have never seen battle except recently across the Himalayas.
New Delhi: Despite a lobbying effort that began in 2019 after the first meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the four Quad partners, the combination of the PRC, Russian and Wahhabi lobbies have failed to prevent the first ever meeting of the Heads of State (or Government) of the US, Japan, Australia and India. It took three meetings at the Foreign Minister level (the last a short while ago) before the 46th President of the United States Joe Biden came forward with a proposal that a virtual summit be held of the four Quad leaders (himself, Morrison, Suga and Modi) even before a physical meeting of the four at the G-10 summit. It would appear that the ill-advised resistance of Prime Ministers Trudeau and Suga to the expansion of the G-7 to the G-10 by the addition of Australia, South Korea and India has been dropped. A G-10 makes much more sense in today’s geopolitical environment than the G-7, while it is a fact that the re-inclusion of Russia (thereby making the group a G-8) would make little sense now that Moscow has signed on as the junior partner to Beijing in the latter’s geopolitical adventures. The holding of the summit, plus the first-ever joint statement by the four leaders, has upset the calculations of Beijing and its associates, principally Moscow, that such a meeting could be postponed to an indefinite future. The Pakistan lobby in the US and the Russian lobby in India worked overtime to de-legitimize the Quad but failed in the face of the determination of President Biden and PM Modi to deepen the comprehensive collaboration between Washington and Delhi. It is instructive that Vice-President Kamala Harris was present at the summit, as her affinity for India (the country that her beloved mother was born in) is known to her family and friends, which is why her visit to the country will further strengthen the friendship between the two biggest democracies in the world. The purpose of such an alliance, and indeed the Quad, is not to cause a war but to prevent a conflict by demonstrating even to the military-minded CPC General Secretary that such a war will end badly for the PLA and its army of soldiers who have never seen battle except recently across the Himalayas.
KINETIC CONFLICT POSSIBLE
Wars are not caused by calculations as by miscalculations. Judged in this light, the rants by Global Times, the English language companion of the Communist Party of China (CPC) flagship, People’s Daily is a signal that the law of unintended consequences could be leading the present leadership in the CPC to actions as would inevitably lead to a kinetic conflict. Once launched, apart from the safe forecast that neither side will want to risk the destruction of the human race by igniting a nuclear conflict, it is difficult to predict the point where a war involving the two superpowers and their respective partners will end. Given the balance of forces, such a conflict will terminate in the overthrow of the existing leadership of the “losing” entities, whether it be the leaderships in Moscow and Beijing or that in Washington, Delhi, Tokyo and Canberra. Just as the self-inflicted defeat of the Indian side in the 1962 conflict with the PRC marked the close of the ascendant phase of the prime ministership of Jawaharlal Nehru, whichever side gets the worse of the armed encounter (which is certain to be carried out in multiple theatres, given the advantage of escalation dominance held by the Quad) will see a rapid erosion in trust in the leadership and consequent moves by either the ruling party or the people or both to depose the individuals responsible for the situation. There are those on the outside who regard the outpourings of the Global Times as being merely the propaganda part of Agitprop of the CPC, but this seems unlikely. The comments and conclusions are such as would cause amusement (or in some cases, bemusement) rather than fear, so out of touch with facts on the ground are the stated conclusions of the GT editorial writers.
BUBBLE REMOVES REALITY
It is precisely such an obvious (at least to those outside the bubble occupied by the CPC leadership) disconnect from reality that is cause for steps designed to prepare for the inevitability of armed conflict while talking about—and hoping for—peace. Given that the Global Times reflects the view of the world as seen by the leadership core of the Communist Party of China, it is clear that the leadership of the world’s most domestically powerful political party is completely out of touch with ground reality, and is living within the “leadership bubble” in a world populated by Alternate Reality, much as the 45th President of the United States, Donald John Trump, was. In his case, even the defeat on 3 November 2020 did not shake him loose from that Alternate Reality universe inhabited by him and his close cohorts, who still maintain that they won the 2020 presidential polls and only foul play by the Democrats, cowardliness by the courts and treachery by Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) caused the swearing in of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr on 20 January 2021, rather than Trump himself for a triumphant second term. It was the disconnect from reality that caused the downfall of Trump, a disconnect mirrored in the feverish reports of Trumpian media about what was going on within the US. These days, the same quality of a separation of reportage from reality is evident in the columns of what must be regarded as the reflector of the views of the PRC leadership, the Global Times. In recent days, it has spoken of moves to bring Delhi and Washington together as the equivalent of teaming up with mafiosi, forgetting that the country that has spent more on building good relations with the US than the next nine countries engaged in a similar effort combined is the Peoples Republic of China. If building better ties with the US is such an odious activity, why does the Chinese Communist Party seek to improve ties with the world’s most powerful country on a persistent basis? Or in the Alternate Reality that holds sway inside the Zhongnanhai bubble, are such moves good only for the PRC and bad for other countries, who presumably should show their wisdom and decency by signing on to the efforts being made by Beijing to replace Washington at the top of the global pyramid? According to the Alternate Reality revealed by Global Times, India is engaged in forming a “cabal” aimed at the PRC, a country that enjoys a trade surplus of over $60 billion annually (all import flows licit and illicit considered) from one of the world’s poorest albeit biggest countries. Neither the US nor India has ever sought to degrade the security of the PRC in the transparent manner that GHQ Rawalpindi has been over seven decades and counting, with assistance from the PLA. Is the combination of Pakistan and China that has been immeasurably strengthened under General Secretary Xi Jinping not a destructive cabal targeting India? No, according to the Alternate Reality accepted as truth in the CPC leadership and revealed by Global Times, it is a saintly combination that ought jointly to be awarded the next Nobel Peace Prize. It is this disconnect from reality that is worrisome, as such lack of an anchor—any anchor—to facts on the ground were what led some powers in the 1930s to plunge the world into a global conflict. The 1941 attack by Germany on the Soviet Union, followed by the immediate alliance of the UK and the US with the USSR sealed the fate of the regime in Berlin, although their own bubble of Alternate Reality kept them from understanding this almost till the final days of their existence. The rants of Global Times is why the Quad is at the core a defence and security alliance, and which is what it needs to be to enable the Indo-Pacific to overcome efforts at converting its waters into a private lake. While their own role in such a development seems not to have penetrated the Alternate Reality bubble, what seems to have embedded itself in the thinking there is similar to that seen in the Reichkanzlerei in Berlin in June 1941, which was that the Red Army would be a pushover rather than the instrument of death it turned out to be for the Germans. The Alternate Reality bubble in the PRC leadership appears to regard India much as Berlin saw Moscow in an earlier era, as inconsequential. They forget that this time around, India under Prime Minister Modi is working towards crafting a global alliance that would ensure that a kinetic encounter with the PLA would end only in a single direction that would be less than welcome to the Global Times.
In the bubble world that events in recent years have revealed that the CPC leadership core is living—and believing—in, the disconnect between ground reality and the filtered perceptions fed by courtiers upwards to the top has ensured that a succession of mistakes have taken relating to countries across the present frontiers of the PRC. President Duterte is known to have a soft corner for General Secretary Xi Jinping, and there are several tycoons in that country who have made immense profits by tying up with Chinese businesses. Despite their influence, the manner in which the claim (upheld by an international tribunal) of the Philippines to the Spratly Islands was rubbished by Beijing has cooled much of the goodwill towards that country. Given the way in which Manila is being treated, it is only a matter of time before “money ceases to speak”, and even Duterte will need to establish close links with the Quad, something the armed forces have been seeking for two years. Now that it is clear that the US under President Biden is committed to the protection of a free and open Indo-Pacific against efforts to convert much of its waters into a PRC lake, it is expected that Hanoi will also establish an increasing number of linkages with the Quad, with Indonesia certain to follow. Just as the UK and France are natural members from Europe of the Quad Plus format, so are the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam within ASEAN. Indeed, a strong case can be made for renaming the South China Sea the ASEAN Sea, as the latter designation would more closely fit the ground reality of littoral rights over the waters. The PRC claim is based on ahistorical accounts and maps deliberately drawn for the purpose. Just as the time has come for the G-7 to morph to the G-10 (with the addition of Australia, South Korea and India) as suggested by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the time is approaching for the Quad Plus format that includes the five additional countries mentioned, two from Europe and three from ASEAN. Both Laos and Cambodia will be outside the grouping, as they have joined Pakistan in becoming a state that has adopted a position of subservience to the dictates of Beijing.
OLYMPIC BOYCOTT GAINS SUPPORT
Once again, thanks to Global Times accurately reflecting the thinking of the CPC leadership core about the situation in BRICS and the SCO, it is clear that Beijing seeks to ensure that both groups bend to the dictates of the PRC. Any country that dares to assert its independence from PRC dictates is to be thrown out. India should never fall into the trap of leaving on its own, but should participate fully in BRICS and SCO meetings. In each, its views need to be presented forcefully, even as Beijing and Islamabad join together in presenting an India-phobic viewpoint. Should General Secretary Xi Jinping not come to India for the BRICS summit, that unfriendly gesture could be reciprocated by PM Modi declining to travel to China for the next future conference held there. Serious thought needs to be given of a boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics, as public opinion in several countries is leaning towards a boycott as comprehensive as that seen during the 1980 boycott of the Games at Moscow. India erred in not joining ASEAN and in allowing Pakistan back into the Commonwealth. Neither SCO nor BRICS are the personal property of any of the member countries for them to discard those who refuse to bend to their dictates. It is astonishing, given the pride of the Russian people, how completely under the tutelage of Beijing that Moscow appears to have become, and by extension a facilitator for the Pakistan military in its operations against certain countries.
PRC, RUSSIA, PAK LOBBIED AGAINST QUAD
Enormous lobbying had been resorted to by the PRC-Russia-Pakistan lobby
in the US, the Pakistan and PRC lobby in India and the PRC lobby in Australia
and Japan to prevent the Quad summit that took place on 12 March. This has
happened despite the billions of dollars that have been spent on such efforts,
especially in the US. Both President Biden as well as Vice-President Harris
have shown that they are aware of the reality of Cold War 2.0, including that
this may switch to a kinetic form, especially given the assertive and
aggressive moves being made by the PRC across the southern and eastern arc of
its borders. In this, they are joined by Prime Ministers Modi, Suga and
Now that the Sino-Russian lobby together with Pakistan have failed to block the first ever Quad Summit, the next focus is to mobilise the well-paid assets that the PRC in particular has in Washington to lobby for the same de-coupling of commerce from security-related tensions between China and the US. It will be remembered that until 2020, profits from the operations of PRC-controlled entities in India financed the PLA in its offensives across the Himalayas as well as the finances needed for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In effect, thanks to the de-hyphenation of the Sino-Indian boundary dispute, tensions and conflict with trade and commerce, India remained the second biggest contributor to the balance of payments surplus of the PRC, after the US. The effort will be to ensure that a collective of voices rise to a crescendo in the US demanding that “tensions with China not stand in the way of business”. In other words, an India-style de-coupling of commerce from security that ended only when PM Modi announced the apps ban that stunned the Chinese side.
QUAD TO QUAD PLUS
The outbursts of the Global Times about the Quad, specifically the increasing role of India in the group, underline the frustration felt in Zhongnanhai at the progress being made towards a matrix of cooperation that covers several issues, including health and technology. In an age of bio-terrorism health too is security-related, as is technology. It cannot be forgotten that General Secretary Xi has made no secret of his plan to equip the military with high-tech weapons. These are not just meant for parades but for use against countries that need to be “taught a lesson”. Once the architecture of the Quad reaches a certain threshold of effectiveness, it is not India that will be taught a lesson but its adversaries. A future Quad must evolve into a Quad Plus, with only the four original members having the veto power. Ultimately, the Quad will overshadow a UNSC that has become dysfunctional as a consequence of Cold War 2.0 in much the same way as was the case during Cold War 1.0. The next steps are a small secretariat as well as air, land and sea bases where the militaries of the four countries can train together. The Daulat Beg Oldi airfield would be a good location to have joint air exercises, while the waters around the Senkaku islands would be the perfect location for naval exercises. War is inevitable if those at the top fear war. This is the lesson of the 1930s and needs to be remembered while dealing with another revisionist, expansionist power that is threatening peace, prosperity and stability across the Indo-Pacific.