By M D Nalapat
Agencies can easily determine what brokerage firms and other financial agencies are involved in the ongoing operation to ‘short’ the rupee, especially through Singapore, Dubai, London and New York.
With the popularity of the Bharatiya Janata Party in danger of
getting battered by economic storms, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
taken direct charge of measures needing to be taken to remove volatility
and generate growth in the Indian economy. This has been welcomed by
the overwhelming majority of Central officials, who are honest and
dedicated to the public welfare. They say that intervention by the PM
has taken place just in time. Despite improving economic fundamentals
warranting a much stronger rupee, India’s currency has been the worst
performing in Asia. Officials (some now retired) who had revealed in
2013 that a secretive cabal headed by a prominent member of the then
government was deliberately “shorting” (i.e. bringing down the value of)
the rupee, say that the same group is once again active in currency
markets. Their intent is to ensure that the rupee falls to as low as Rs
100 to a US dollar by this December, an objective that they are well on
the way to achieving. The well-resourced cabal is being assisted by the
mechanism of “Exchange Traded Currency Futures” that was strengthened
during the UPA period and inexplicably has been allowed to continue even
after 26 May 2014. Because they enjoy close ties and credibility with
key channels within the business press, it has been easy for this group
to spread (through the media) an expectation amongst the public that the
rupee is in “free fall”. Those officials who have declined to join the
gravy train of the cabal warn that “the sooner exchange-based currency
futures get restricted in India, the better for the stability of the
rupee”. They say that the ten years of the UPA period were marked by
policies “deliberately designed to make it a cakewalk for global fund
managers to make hot money out of markets in India”, and that “too many
such policies are still being continued” by North Block, “mainly because
the key officials responsible then are still in important positions
now”. It ought not to be impossible for investigative agencies to
determine exactly what brokerage firms and other financial agencies are
involved in the ongoing operation to “short” the rupee, especially
through Singapore, Dubai, London and New York, even though these centres
are outside the reach of the Reserve Bank of India. Not that the RBI
seems in any rush to do anything about the matter. Thus far, the RBI
leadership has not even been making reassuring statements about the
currency.
MANIPULATION OF PERCEPTIONS
At the same time, “a carefully coordinated volley of op-eds and
statements is being generated that are designed to pretend that the
rupee is overvalued” even at the present bargain basement rates. A
publicly-funded economic think-tank based in Delhi has been at the hub
of efforts to generate a herd mentality that would panic currency
markets into fleeing the rupee. That even such disruptive mechanisms as
derivative trading have not been stopped or sharply regulated thus far
is a testimony to the reach of the “Short the Rupee” cabal within
elements of the official machinery in both North Block in Delhi as well
as Mint Road in Mumbai. An example of manipulation of perceptions about
policies and policymakers is the effort to claim that the 2008 global
financial crisis bypassed India “because of sound management during
2008-09”. The reality is that the high proportion of cash in asset
purchases in India provided a valuation cushion for institutional
lenders, hence the absence of a “sub-prime crisis” in this country.
Later, gargantuan volumes of cash were recklessly directed to favoured
segments in the name of “fiscal stimulus”, and it is scant wonder that
such ailments as bank NPAs began to fester during that period. Skilful
management of perceptions has enabled the Insider Vulture Cabal to
ensure that several of its most toxic policies continue to operate to
the present. As an example, the currency of a country is as much an
essential commodity as foodstuffs and other material that are not
permitted to be traded on the futures market, in view of the volatility
and windfall hot money profits that such operations would generate. It
may be remembered that speculator and regime change specialist George
Soros was responsible for single-handedly bringing down the value of the
British pound through a sophisticated and comprehensive operation
involving short selling on the same lines as has been happening recently
to the rupee. Another target of Soros was the Malaysian ringgit.
Although corroboration in the form of tangible evidence is difficult to
come by, officials anxious about the ongoing effort to slaughter the
value of the rupee in the currency markets claim that the Soros
organisation (which has numerous overt and covert tentacles in India) is
“active in bringing down the value of the rupee so as not only to make
profits but punish India for continuing to trade with Iran”.
Interestingly, Soros himself has been the victim of false reports
linking him to the Iranian regime, when he is in fact among its most
potent opponents.
CONTINUOUS MONITORING NEEDED
The blind spot in regulatory and monitoring mechanisms in India is
the close informal connection between international operators and those
responsible for fiscal and monetary policy in India. While the
authorities go after small players, major depredators escape. Vijay
Mallya transferred much of the loans taken by him to accounts abroad
through a private bank with deep connections even within the present
establishment. However, this and similar “respectable” institutions have
escaped scrutiny so far, perhaps because of the “services” they render
to those still well connected even after the 2014 election victory of
the BJP. Officials alarmed at the inaction against rogue elements say
that continuous monitoring of the robustness of settlement of exchange
traded futures in currency is essential. If the trading is not robust,
the market may face difficulties through concerted action by speculators
who have “insider” knowledge of the manner in which India’s fiscal and
monetary authorities will act in situations of strain and volatility.
Several officials may themselves function as agents of such cabals,
skewing policy responses in order to ensure windfall profits for their
hidden benefactors. Unfortunately, in the trusting atmosphere of the
higher bureaucracy in India, even in bent members of their own tribe,
such saboteurs of the public interest go unpunished and usually
undetected, especially because they are present in the regulatory and
oversight departments and agencies as well. The record of the CBI, ED,
DRI and other agencies in discovering—much less checking—widespread
malpractice in false invoicing of imports and exports is dismal, while
as yet the BJP-led government has not taken action even against those
VVIPs who openly assisted Vijay Mallya and others in their money
transfers out of India. Presumably such action is another of the lengthy
list awaiting 2022.
Another problem area are the NDF (non deliverable forward) markets
operating in Singapore and Dubai. These markets are used by some with
Indian passports (including the many with a secret second passport) who
have international operations. These take positions in the forex market
in India and simultaneously take a counter position in an NDF market.
This mechanism is being used now to short the rupee, according to honest
officials alarmed at the situation. It may be remembered that a former
Union Minister for Finance took the initiative in destroying an
Indian-owned commodity exchange that had branches in Dubai and
Singapore, a process of destruction that continues to the present
through officials loyal to the former minister who remain in high
positions or are regularly consulted by the present government despite
their close linkages with a former minister known for generating immense
profits through market manipulation.
‘AVOID INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS’
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has handed back control of the Finance
Ministry to Arun Jaitley, who has a 20-hour per day job on his hands to
ensure a return to correct rupee values and the ending of uncertainty
and volatility caused by operators intent on shorting the rupee and
creating headwinds for the economy. In a situation where the RBI
leadership (whose record in managing liquidity during the 2016
demonetisation left much to be desired) seems to have lost its voice in
the crisis, those who have placed their faith in the rupee and in the
management skills of Prime Minister Modi are looking for visible and
energetic leadership from the Prime Minister through the Union Ministry
of Finance. What is required is to be steady in its macro management and
not give an impression of indecision or inaction. Although the lira,
real, rand and peso are getting tanked as part of emerging market
crisis, both the geopolitical as well as the geo-economic situation
facing India is far more favourable, especially in view of Prime
Minister Modi’s success in balancing India’s relationship with the two
feuding superpowers, China and the US. Both North Block as well as the
RBI have enough in their toolkits to get out of any speculator-induced
crisis. Steps could include depressing imports and tapping the patriotic
community of NRI for the purchase of bonds as in 2013. An amnesty
scheme for those nationals still having undeclared assets abroad could
be introduced with rates of taxation that are reasonable rather than
prohibitive as formerly. “The PM has to deliver solutions that are out
of the box”, a senior official said, “and especially avoid the policy
box recommended by international financial institutions to fill their
own coffers at the expense of producers and consumers in our country”.
Unfortunately, several officials seem to be in awe of such institutions,
and push for policies beneficial only to them rather than to domestic
players, and both Prime Minister Modi as well as his trusted Finance
Minister, Arun Jaitley, will need to ensure that such elements be
stopped from driving policy in North Block and the RBI.
RUPEE INHERENTLY STRONG
A potent example of official inaction is the co-location scandal.
Through lack of sufficient follow-up by SEBI, the ED and the CBI, it
would appear that those responsible for the “co-location” imbroglio in
the National Stock Exchange will escape without significant (if any)
penalties. The time limit for sanctioning prosecution against former
officials associated with the imbroglio (and known to be close to a
prominent politician) falls due on 20 September, with no movement so far
to give the green light. Key players are still holding on to their
positions, some even after their names have formed part of
charge-sheets. The public stand of many of them is, not surprisingly in
view of their links and interests, in the direction of a weaker rupee.
However, the reality is that the rupee is inherently strong, and can be
defended with ease merely by effective tweaks in policy than by
expending US dollars in its defence. What is needed is to build
confidence in the market that the Government of India will not stand
supine but will work towards a stable and fair value for the precious
rupee. Concerning co-location, there are reports that lease lines and
server racks are still connected between select brokers and an exchange,
but thus far, the investigative agencies seem to be unwilling to look
into such complaints, for reasons that are not clear. However, these may
perhaps become clear a few years later, when complaints get filed about
the lack of effective action of ED, CBI and SEBI. Inaction in the face
of manipulation of markets by a well-funded and influential cabal led by
a prominent politician whose identity and activities are known to every
agency, but who (together with his co-conspirators) seems to be beyond
accountability.
ACT AGAINST SHORT-SELLERS
The derivative market, which continues to be given a free run despite
the risks of such a lack of action, is several times the size of the
actual market, and the effort of the cabal is to ensure a global run on
the rupee that would result in a sustained tanking of its value. This
would severely affect the economy just when the 2019 Lok Sabha elections
are around the corner. In macro terms, there are no reasons why this
should be so, especially in view of the cordial relations that exist
between the teams led by President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister
Modi, as well as the new bonhomie with China after the Wuhan summit
between Xi Jinping and Modi. Officials supportive of measures to clean
up the rot within the regulatory system say that it would be “child’s
play to identify and take action against short-sellers” of the rupee,
and to “warn global speculative financial enterprises that their India
operations would be impacted by any measures taken to worsen the
situation relating to the Indian currency” in global markets. Overall,
the health of the economy is good and is improving. What is needed is a
proper mix of policies designed to protect the economy from “hot” money
ravages and from those determined to derail India’s success story. The
financial world is in particular looking to the Prime Minister and to
the Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley for reassurance and vigorous
action to ensure that the Indian rupee as well as the economy in general
be protected from the speculative insider cabal that has long been
adept at misusing the system for gain amounting to billions of US
dollars annually.
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