M.D. Nalapat
Manipal, India —
Nepal would never have come to be led by Maoists were it not for the help that
the rebels got from India. For decades, Maoist guerrillas took refuge in India’s
eastern states of West Bengal and Bihar, given sanctuary by an indulgent Indian
administration.
Later, the
Maoists’ numerous contacts within the Indian security establishment ensured New
Delhi’s help in emasculating Nepal’s monarchy – according to courtiers within
Kathmandu’s Narayanhiti Palace, because the Nepali king and Sonia Gandhi
disliked each other – and subsequently nudged the Nepali Congress into joining
a government led by the guerrilla fighters.
Since then
things have shifted. China has characteristically reversed its earlier policy
of backing the monarchy, and has become the most significant international
backer of Nepal's version of the Peoples Liberation Army. This is causing
increasing disquiet in India, which – foolishly – has an open border with
Nepal.
Now the Maoists
seem set to increase their grip on the country by replacing the head of Nepal's
military with a stooge of their own. Army Chief Rukmangud Katawal has thus far
resisted both threats and inducements to infuse a flood of guerrilla fighters
into what is still a professional fighting force. Should he be replaced, the
odds are that the Nepali army – the only effective barrier between the Maoists
and dictatorial control – will succumb to their pressures.
Interestingly,
it is the pro-China – and therefore pro-Pakistan, given the alliance between
these two neighbors of India – groups within Nepal's political establishment
that are backing the dismissal of Katawal. Because their own coalition partners
oppose the move, the Maoists are looking to jettison them and form an alliance
with the opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist).
