M.D. Nalapat
Manipal, India —
Nepal would never have come to be led by Maoists were it not for the help that
the rebels got from India. For decades, Maoist guerrillas took refuge in India’s
eastern states of West Bengal and Bihar, given sanctuary by an indulgent Indian
administration.
Later, the
Maoists’ numerous contacts within the Indian security establishment ensured New
Delhi’s help in emasculating Nepal’s monarchy – according to courtiers within
Kathmandu’s Narayanhiti Palace, because the Nepali king and Sonia Gandhi
disliked each other – and subsequently nudged the Nepali Congress into joining
a government led by the guerrilla fighters.
Since then
things have shifted. China has characteristically reversed its earlier policy
of backing the monarchy, and has become the most significant international
backer of Nepal's version of the Peoples Liberation Army. This is causing
increasing disquiet in India, which – foolishly – has an open border with
Nepal.
Now the Maoists
seem set to increase their grip on the country by replacing the head of Nepal's
military with a stooge of their own. Army Chief Rukmangud Katawal has thus far
resisted both threats and inducements to infuse a flood of guerrilla fighters
into what is still a professional fighting force. Should he be replaced, the
odds are that the Nepali army – the only effective barrier between the Maoists
and dictatorial control – will succumb to their pressures.
Interestingly,
it is the pro-China – and therefore pro-Pakistan, given the alliance between
these two neighbors of India – groups within Nepal's political establishment
that are backing the dismissal of Katawal. Because their own coalition partners
oppose the move, the Maoists are looking to jettison them and form an alliance
with the opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist).
Within this
party, pro-Pakistan leaders such as Bam Dev Gautam, and even party Chairman
Jhalanath Kamal, have already tacitly switched sides to the Maoists and are
ready to be absorbed into the ruling party. However, other key leaders, such as
Madhav Nepal, have resisted the Maoist takeover of the CPN-UML, and refused the
request of the pro-Pakistan, pro-China groups to surrender to Prime Minister
Prachanda.
Even though 21
out of the 24 political parties within the Nepal Constituent Assembly are
opposed to Prachanda's attempt to "Maoize" the Nepal military, this
has not stopped the ruling party from seeking to dismiss the army chief. Should
it do so, the ineffective and timid government of Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh is unlikely to do more than bleat out a protest – especially
with India in the final throes of an election where this columnist expects the
ruling Congress Party’s share of seats to fall by one-third.
Exactly as in
the 1980s, when it force-fed Sri Lanka’s Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam into
a powerful guerrilla force, the amateurish security establishment in India is
discovering that it has nurtured a monster in the Maoists that has bounded out
of control.
However, a
Maoist takeover of the Nepali army – which would be followed by greater
assistance within Nepal to Pakistan's China-supported Inter-Services
Intelligence and its terror activities in India – could lead a future
government in India to re-impose a quarantine of Nepal. Such a move in the
1980s forced King Mahendra to cede wide powers to elected Nepali representatives,
a development unwisely reversed by the last of the Shah dynasty, King
Gyanendra.
Should Prachanda
continue to ignore the reality of Nepal's dependence on India, and connive at
assisting insurgency in India in the company of Pakistan and with a
China-backed army, he may find his takeover of the military to be a Pyrrhic
victory. Not all Indian prime ministers will be as forgiving as Manmohan Singh
has been to India's internal and external enemies.
-(Professor M.D. Nalapat is vice-chair of the Manipal Advanced
Research Group, UNESCO Peace Chair, and professor of geopolitics at Manipal
University. ©Copyright M.D. Nalapat.)
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