With UF as the Enemy, the BJP Does Not Need Friends

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Whether in 1979 or in 1990, an agglomeration of groups like
today's United Front (UF) has always got defeated by self goals.
The Congress party had no need to make any move other than
watch as the Morarji Desai and then the V. P. Singh govemments
destroyed themselves. While in 1977-79 the Congress was the
only opposition to the government, by 1990 the B]P began to
share that space with it. Today, the BJP is in the same position
as the Congress was during 1977-79: all it needs to do is to wait
patiently while its opponents in government destroy themselves.

While the All India Congress Committee (AICC), under P. V.
Narasimha Rao was in a clearly subordinate position to the UF,
obsessed as it was with saving Rao and his son from jail, it was
expected that the Sitaram Kesri AICC would reclaim lost
opposition space for the Congress by differentiating it from the
UF. The appointment of two "UF lobby" members - Ahmed
Patel and Ghulam Nabi Azad—as office—bearers and the latter's
frank confession of helplessness vis-a-vis the Gowda government
has once again helped give the BJP a monopoly over the
opposition space. The contempt shown by the UF to the cries to
support a Congress—BSP government in Uttar Pradesh shows
that the calculation on Raisina Hill is that the Congress may be
able to give a few feeble barks, but it is toothless.

While moralists will applaud Azad’s confession of his party’s
weakness, others within the CWC are dismayed. "Even if we
cannot face another poll now, it is not wise to advertise this fact
and thus reveal our weakness. This will only result in our getting
ignored and thereby becoming even weaker", a Congress Working
Committee (CWC) member said. However, the Kashmir politician
appears to be going by the gameplan of his group, which is to 
prepare for a formal alliance with the UF, first by joining the
Deve Gowda government and thereafter fighting the polls
together. The calculation is that such a front can trounce the BJP.

However, both by conceding the opposition space entirely to
it and by the overkill witnessed in Gujarat and UP, the UF-
Congress alliance may be building up a popular backlash of
support for the saffron party. UF policies are clearly being driven
by the ideologies of the Left—the same individuals who attacked
the President of India for first calling upon A. B. Vajpayee to
form the government. According to the Left, the BJP is today an
untouchable that has to be driven away from power by any
means, even of the kind employed by governor Romesh Bhandari.
If the BJP is prevented from coming to office—or is sought to
be toppled by undemocratic means—the influence of the fanatics
within that party will grow. As a result, the party may focus not
on the legislatures but on the streets, whipping up agitations and
provoking confrontations. With the BJP on the streets and the
Left parties calling for fiscal anarchy, the Deve Gowda government
is likely to lose public support. Given the Congress policy of
tailing the UF, most of the benefit from loss of public support to
the Gowda government is likely to go to the BJP and putative
allies such as Lakshmi Parvathy in Andhra Pradesh and R. K.
Hegde in Karnataka.

While the conventional wisdom is that a BSP-BJP alliance in
UP will suit the UF in that it will prise the Congress loose from
the Dalits party, the fact is that a BSP-BJP govemment may open
up enquiries into the Mulayam Singh regime’s decisions and
provide sufficient dirt for prosecution. This may result in a
shrinkage of the Samajwadi Party base, in the same way as Rao’s
travails have hit the Congress or Laloo Prasad Yadav’s links to
the fodder mafia have hit the Janata Dal.

Of course, a BSP-BJP govemment in UP can follow the policy
of the Manohar Joshi govemment in Maharashtra and let sleeping
scandals lie. While Gopinath Munde used to emote about the
links of the Congress with gangsters while in opposition as home A
minister, he has shown little inclination to follow up. However,
Kanshi Ram may not be as accommodating as Joshi and Munde.

Thus far Kalyan Singh has succeeded in preventing a BSP-
BJP alliance. However, the knowledge that the MLAs of the two 
parties are vulnerable to the siren call of Yadav and the desire 
to pay back the UF-Congress for Gujarat, may in the coming
weeks result in BJP backing the BSP in UP. Governor Bhandari
has shown that the confidence reposed in him by Amar Singh-
who got him his transfer, has been well merited. However, even
he may hesitate before agreeing to reject the bid of a group that
will have a comfortable majority in the UF assembly.

Time is running out for all the principals. Kanshi Ram's
support base is vulnerable to intimidation and Yadav may be
calculating that in a fresh poll, governor Bhandari, Tikait and
assorted musclemen will be able to prevent enough Dalits voting
to give SP the upper hand. Thus, the BSP supremo may have to
either agree to a coalition government (instead of one with
outside support) or be ready to face a fresh poll under adverse
conditions. The B]P needs Kanshi Ram's support base in order
to edge past the 220-mark in Parliament; so it may have to decide
on holding on to the Kalyan Singh thesis or coming to terms with
the BSP.

As predicted, UP is emerging as a decisive factor in national
politics. In the next few weeks, two questions may come up for
an answer: will the Congress swallow its hurt and support the
proclamation of Central government rule in UP? If so, a formal
alliance with the UF appears near. Second, will the BSP and the
BJP stake a claim in UP, and if so, will the governor dissolve the
assembly rather than allow the majority group to come to
power? If the answer to the first question is "no" and that to the
second "yes", the country appears headed for a return to 1990.
The constitutional contortions designed to keep away the BJP
may then build up enough popular support for that party to
have a fair chance at power.

Clamour for Sonia Last Gasp of a Moribund Culture

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

After landing at Indira Gandhi International Airport, a visitor
can go to Jawaharlal Nehru University, but not before taking in
a performance at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium. At JNU he may
be advised to contact the I.ndira Gandhi Open University or the
Indira Gandhi Centre for the Performing Arts. Thereafter perhaps
a dinner near Sanjay Van, followed the next day by a stroll along
the Ring Road, past the memorials to Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira
Gandhi, Sanjay Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. That evening a visit
to the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation and the Nehru and Indira
Gandhi Memorials. And now, as though all this were insufficient,
Connaught Place has been renamed Indira Chowk and Rajiv
Chowk.

Great Passion 
From this decision one may safely infer the Union home minister's
great passion for the Nehru family. Had he demonstrated this
emotion by renaming his ancestral home after Jawaharlal Nehru,
or his children after Rajiv or Sanjay Gandhi, few would have
protested. However, what is objectionable is that he should
inflict his preferences on the rest of us. Not that such behaviour
in unknown among politicians. Alcohol is freely served in the
homes of many who advocate prohibition, just as many who
argue against education in English send their own children to
English-medium schools.

The Union home minister does have a defense for taking a
decision without any reference to the people who will be affected
by it, namely the citizens of Delhi. This is the fact that since 1973,
the ethos of his party has been similar to that of a sole
proprietorship, with the owner taking all the major decisions 
about policy and personnel, and delegating the rest only to
individuals in whom he or she has personal confidence. Except
for a brief return to democratic ways in 1992-93, the Congress
party has functioned in this manner for over two decades.

Indeed, grassroots support may be a handicap for a Congress
"leader". A person with an independent base may develop as a
threat, while a tainted individual will presumably be dependent
on his patron for survival and thus be servile. In such a system,
instead of a huge fund of public goodwill building up as the
result of the summation of goodwill accruing to numerous
leaders (each with a grassroots base), the entire pyramid fastens
leech—like on the "owner", living off his goodwill. Small wonder
that—whoever the leader—such goodwill soon evaporates and the
popularity of the entire party plummets.

Sometime during 1993, Prime Minister Rao took the decision
that has been at the root of most of the problems being faced by
him and his party today. This was to put on hold the process of
inner-party democracy in the Congress party. Sensing a threat to
their position, the clutch of leaders around him may have
warned of "loss of control" should the process go further. Had
the Prime Minister adopted an above-the—fray stance and allowed
grassroots sentiment to dictate the choice of local leaders, teams
may have formed in the states that would have generated greater
resonance in the electorate. However, almost all the leaders
around him would have lost their hold over local party machines.

There are indications that during this year, the Prime Minister
may have calculated that a return to power may not be compatible
with the retention of several of the leaders who have flourished
in the ”nomination culture" of the Congress party. And hence
the signals that the Azads, Jakhars, and others should quit the
government.

Such a realisation has come very late in the day for an
individual who could only "disc0ver" a Buta Singh, a Jagannath
Mishra or a J.B. Patnaik with which to "refurbish" his team.
There must have been an element of bravado, perhaps of
despair, in sending back for example, to Orissa the individual
who had presided over the rout of the party not so long ago. Or
indeed in making the persons who had led the Congress to
humiliating defeat in 1983 and 1985, chief minister of Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka respectively a few years later. However, 
it is a positive sign that Prime Minister Rao seems cognisant now
of the political harm caused by deadwood.

Fawning Courtiers
The deadwood, however, cannot be expected to welcome being
shunted aside. After all those who comprise it have their own
band of fawning courtiers telling them that India cannot survive
an instant without their remaining in office. So, when their
"host" gets restive and tries to snake them off, they look around
for a new "host" to fasten on to. Being political parasites, they
cannot survive on their own. Only those with grassroots support
can pull off such a feat, and these are individuals nurtured in a
culture that has contempt for the grassroots.

Hence their very public efforts to draft Sonia Gandhi into the
hurly-burly of Congress politics. Or if not her, at least her son or
daughter. Few of those fanning expectation of such a possibility
to the media are acting out of love for a family that has seen three
too many tragedies in the past 15 years. Rather, the intention is
to send a signal to Prime Minister Rao that if he abandons them,
there is a rival magnetic pole around which these iron filings can
congregate and embarrass him. More than a welcome mat for
Sonia Gandhi, the feverish efforts to whip up "spontaneous"
enthusiasm for her plunge into politics is actually intended as a
warning to Narasimha Rao. Thus far, however, Sonia Gandhi has
maintained an attitude of non—involvement in politics. Neither
have her children demonstrated any intention of entering on a
career that is becoming more irrelevant with each economic and
social advance made by the nation.

Downward Drift
Should the Prime Minister do what those flaunting the "10
Janpath" factor in his face expect him to — that is give up plans
for at least a partial clearing away of the ”nominationist"
deadwood that he has allowed himself to be surrounded by — the
game would be lost even if Sonia Gandhi did not get involved
in active politics. Only a practical acknowledgement of the need
to introduce probity and modernity into his team — with its
corollary of a chopping—away of deadwood—has a chance of
enhancing his political fortunes. The down-ward drift in these
fortunes has largely been caused by his unwillingness to recognize
that most of the worthies who clustered around Rajiv Gandhi
were liabilities to the fallen leader, just as they are for Narasimha
Rao. For four years the Prime Minister has made do with a
recycled team, rather than craft a new team with potential for the
future. Today, the very beneficiaries of such an action have
begun to bare their fangs, when they realise that their bluff of
political relevance may be called.

Unless Rao clears the "Rajiv barrier" of around 200 seats
(that is roughly the number of seats won under the leadership of
Rajiv Gandhi in 1989), the chance that he will be re-elected leader
of the Congress Parliamentary Party is nil. The Sharad Pawars,
Madhavrao Scindias and others will step into the ring, and one
of them will walk away with the prize. If the time before the
elections is short, that is an argument for Rao to initiate a faster
pace of change, rather than opt for a continuation of the stalemate.

Reaching Heavens through Selling Drugs

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

One metre from the Pakistan border, the reason behind an

apparent low morale in the men of the Indian border patrols

becomes evident. Opposite Manihari, in the Samba sector of

Jammu, the Pakistan authorities have deliberately allowed the

land to become jungle. The vegetation acts as a perfect cover for

those infiltrating into India.

Had the Indian government cleared the jungle on its side of

the border, a zone of clear land would have been created to

facilitate detection of intruders. Instead, the land on the Indian

side has also been left as jungle. To make interception of

infiltrators even more difficult, the roads on the Indian side of

the border are mere country tracks, which discourage regular

patrolling. Here, on the dirt tracks and in the bush, the advantage

lies clearly with the intruder, who usually enters on foot.

Shakargarh is one of the commonest points of entry into

India, used by both drug runners and terrorists. However, there

are only around 70 BSF men to cover over three kilometres of

border. Cuts   financial outlays have resulted in a lower

intensity of patrolling, while the "reward system" for informers

has got bureaucratised, with over a year often elapsing before a

reward is given for information about infiltrators. That is, in

those cases where a reward gets sanctioned at all.

In yet another display of helpfulness to the intruder, each

border post has been positioned around 500 yards from the

boundary. From that distance, looking into the dense jungle all

around, it would take a hawk to detect anything. Unfortunately,

the posts are manned by human beings. Travelling on the dirt

track along the border, it was clear that the authorities believed

Pakistan to be a friendly country. Patrols were rare, and checking 

infrequent.

In a village a few kilometres from the international border, 

a "businessman" from Sialkot agreed to talk, provided the name

of the village was not disclosed. To prove his credentials, an

identity card was pulled out, which had his name and photograph,

along with the Pakistan emblem in the upper right-hand corner. 

According to Fazil, a drug-runner, these cards are given on the

Pakistan side to facilitate re-entry into that country. He said that, 

for the past year, officials in civilian clothes - rather than Rangers -

gave instructions for those making the crossings. "People in

uniform now give orders only to the mujahids (terrorists)," he

said. And what was the link between the "businessmen" and the

mujahids? After hesitating, Fazil, said that the Pakistan authorities

allowed the drug-runners to exit freely "on condition that we

pay money to the mujahids for them to buy stores and

ammunition". Also, he added, "our entry and exit networks in

India are to be at the disposal of the mujahids". When asked how

dangerous it was to cross over to India, the reply was, "This is

a wonderful country. We can buy 90 minutes or 120 minutes of

time from the Indian border authorities to send in men and

ammunition. Once, in 1993, we even got six hours of time to

bring in material".

Talking to P. S. Bajwa, who commands the BSF posts in the

Samba sector, the reason why Fazil took the risks he did becomes

clear. According to the BSF officer, a kilogram of heroin doubles V

in value from the Rs 25,000 paid in Pakistan, the moment it

crosses to the Indian side. In Delhi, the same quantity of drugs

would fetch Rs 2,00,000, a figure that would more than double

once it reached Bombay. The real profits, however, were to be

made from exporting the drug to the US. In New York, heroin

worth Rs 25,000 in Pakistan could be sold for over Rs 1 crore.

According to Paramjit Randhawa, a BSF officer dealing with

border intelligence, North-west Pakistan and Afghanistan were

the main producers of drugs. Subsequently, drug-runners send

the substances to Karachi and Bombay for onward transmission

to Europe and the US. According to him, Bombay was the main

shipment point for the Indian drug trade, "which is closely

linked to Dubai and Karachi."

Near Samba, in the residence of a villager, Yakub - a Lahore

based "facilitator" in the drug distribution network - agreed to

talk again if his contacts remained anonymous. When asked why

he was active in such a trade, Yakub replied that drugs were a

"weapon to destroy the societies of unbelievers". He added that

"spreading poison in such societies is no sin. Instead, it confers

blessings". Yakub too affirmed that money was regularly given

by drug traders to militants in Kashmir. This was done "as a

duty to our brethren".

Despite the handicaps imposed by lack of manpower and the

absence of fencing or other methods of making the border less

porous, Indian patrols have succeeded in intercepting large

quantities of drugs. Commander Bajwa’s 117 Battalion captured

215 kilograms of heroin and 600 kilograms of charas during the

past three months alone. However, these represent a small

fraction of the drugs getting through. Why? A senior BSF officer

in Jammu had an answer: "Smugglers are not deterred, because r

our laws are much more liberal than in South-east Asia. Here

most carriers spend less than a year in jail. What we need is

better enforcement and tougher punishment".

Results are the Best Image-Builder, Vajpayee

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Karl Marx wrote that history repeats itself as farce. Atal Behari
Vajpayee needs to take note, for the initial direction of his
government gives the impression he believes that it is not a 1998
model BJP-led sarkar but a recycled version of the 1950 Nehru
government. Sadly, neither does the BJP enjoy the majority in
Parliament and the state assemblies that the Congress party had
during that time, nor is the country a freshly independent one
eager to be moulded.

Instead of expending effort on determining ways of getting
bread—and—butter legislation passed in a fractious Parliament, the
Vajpayee government is cogitating over major Constitutional
changes. Fifty years have gone by since Independence, and
during this time the Constitution has evolved in incremental
steps rather than in the sudden leap implied in A. B. Vajpayee’s
proposal. Moderation is preferable to the chop and cut of less
stable polities. Pakistan, for example, has moved from
Westminster-style democracy to Basic Democracy to Bhutto
Populism to Martial Law to Islamic State. Hopefully, this country
will be spared such turmoil. Instead of setting up (yet another
expensive) commission, what needs to be done is to bring
forward in the nominal course limited proposals for changes in a
few clauses.

In another display of a subliminal belief that India got
freedom only after he was sworn in as Prime Minister a month
ago, A. B. Vajpayee - through his parliamentary affairs minister
— would like to appoint a Delimitation Commission that would
make Lok Sabha seats proportional to population.

This would reward the least efficient states with more
parliamentary clout, and make them the masters of the federal structure, 
rather than equal partners with the rest. Tensions 
would get created that would exceed those in 1965, when it was      
proposed that English be abolished by 1967. Should M. L.   
Khurana go ahead with his plan, the regional parties would    
swiftly withdraw support, and he and his chief will get plenty 
of leisure to write articles on constitutional  and political reform. 
   
If the Vajpayee government insists on spending more money   
on Parliament, then it should come forward with legislation that    
increases the number of Lok Sabha seats proportionately in all    
the states. This would insure against damage to the federal    
principle, and avoid punishing those states that effectively    
implemented family welfare programmes. Along with this, 
measures should be taken-to break up states with populations     
larger than 50 million. As the anarchy in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar   
has shown, regional governments are as yet unable to handle a
population size in excess of 50 million. New states should     
therefore be the priority, rather than risking the destruction of 
the regional balance within the country by upsetting the present   
proportions between the states in the matter of Lok Sabha seats. 

Along with rewriting the Constitution and changing the   
regional balance to make four states dominate the  country’s 
politics, A. B. Vajpayee would also like to take the path trodden   
by the two previous Cleans, Rajiv Gandhi and Vishwanath   
Pratap Singh. Apparently, Pramod Mahajan has yet to inform his   
boss that the many meetings and campaigns organised by the 
BJP were not entirely funded by widows and orphans. As a   
result, Sedapatti Muthiah was nudged out of the government, 
setting in motion a process that has now claimed Buta Singh and    
is likely before long to affect Ram Jethmalani, besides several      
others. Indeed, with assets a mere Rs. 40 lakh more than his   
income, Muthiah is a relative pauper in high-level politics. 
chief minister of a state where the BJP is an alliance partner is    
worth ten times as much, even according to the records.    
Fortunately, there is no Karunanidhi there to uncover such    
indiscretions.  

However, now that the Tamil Nadu chief minister has shown 
the way, others will be tempted to investigate and get cases filed    
against more VIPs. This can only benefit the public in India,   
where thus far there has  been very little accountability in the  
political class, who have mostly adopted the Maharashtra model   
While the Mr. Clean mantle is likely to be as much an
albatross around A. B. Vajpayee's neck as it was on the others
who tried to use it, the country may yet benefit from the flurry
of investigations that the Muthiah decision will provoke. Now
all that the Congress and other Opposition parties need to do is
to get investigated charges against Cabinet ministers, and press
for a charge-sheet, thus making politics in India as hazardous as
it is in the United States.

While A. B. Vajpayee’s (large) band of friends may delight in
his Clean image, the voters are more concerned that he become
Mr. Results. Rather than the sublime issues that apparently
fascinate him so much, the Prime Minister needs to concentrate
on basic essentials such as growth and security, For example,
Sikander Bakht can privatise key public sector companies,
auctioning 76 per cent of the equity to the public and reserving
24 per cent to the employees at a heavily subsidised rate.
This would give the workers an incentive to support reform
of PSUs, rather than see it as a threat. Missile flights should be
resumed, while nuclear tests should take place unless the United
States makes available data that can enable a reliable deterrent
to be made.

A. B. Vajpayee should also begin taking steps to implement
those sections of the BIP manifesto that speak of making laws
transparent and non-oppressive. The Budget should retain a low
direct tax structure while raising customs duties to the levels
sanctioned by the WTO, except in cases where a lower duty
promotes exports. New export processing zones need to be
created in the Northeast and the Andaman islands, while ports,
power, roads and other infrastructure should have liberal entry
conditions.

The state governments should be given discretion in FDI and
other project sanctions, while legislative measures need to be
taken to prevent delays due to the filing of PILs. These days,
most embassies and other agencies have their own stable of
friendly NGOs that can file PILs, hold seminars and organize
press conferences to push alien commercial and political interests
clandestinely.

Sonia Gandhi's error in backing unpopular leaders and their
policies, and Congress's repudiation of its nationalist heritage,
has given the Vajpayee government more leeway than newspaper
headlines would indicate.

Rather than get lost in philosophical diversions, the Prime
Minister needs to craft a practical agenda for the forthcoming
Lok Sabha. Only if the country sees him and his team getting
down to business will it generate for the government the good-
will needed to prod Parliament towards passing legislation
needed for prosperity.

To Become Global, Act Global (Rediff)

At long last, Atal appears to be realising that his hand-picked foreign minister's unvarying advocacy of the Washington line may not be in India's best interests. Rather late, but better by far than never. Vajpayee has publicly acknowledged that Bill Clinton is fixated on Islamabad, even when the men in uniform illegally throw out a democratic government. These comments were made on the very day that Jaswant Singh had traveled halfway around the world to get a few hours time with a junior US official, Strobe Talbott, whose close collaboration with the CIA in matters relating to the Soviet Union was no secret to his journalistic colleagues.

After numerous rounds of talks, Washington has -- if anything -- further hardened its stand on India. At every opportunity, as for example to the Turkish parliament, Clinton attacks New Delhi as a threat to peace. Why not petition the Americans to give Jassu the job he is most suited for, that of replacing Dick Celeste as the US ambassador in India? His dear friend Brajesh can move on to Washington and together, the two can complete the job that so many in the past -- ranging from Laxmi Kant Jha to Amar Nath Verma -- tried to do, making India a full foreign policy colony of the US, just as the UK, Australia and Japan are.

Jassu loves going to places where he can meet state department officials, which is why it is surprising that he has found so little time for the Gulf region, a destination swarming with official US visitors. In economic policy the Nehru family stunted India and set it back by 50 years. However, in foreign policy even Rajiv Gandhi devoted considerable attention to this region so crucial for India as both an employer of labour as well as a source for hydrocarbons.

After the Rajiv defeat in 1989, New Delhi has neglected the Gulf. In exchange, India is slowly being forgotten in a region where not long ago the rupee was acceptable tender. Indeed, till the 1960s it was the preferred medium of exchange in countries such as Kuwait. Today, if there is any coherent strategy for fusing India's technological prowess with Gulf capital, Jaswant Singh has kept it a secret. Small wonder that even in nations such as Syria, where a moderate social ethos prevails, even Indian films are slowly becoming rarer. The world's largest democracy figures less in the external calculus of Damascus than even Yemen.

A pity. With the speeding up of the Arab Free Trade Zone, it would be beneficial for Indian companies to locate plants in Syria that could market goods throughout the Gulf region. Today, the US and the EU have virtually monopolised the Arab market. This can change in a decade, if the Government of India were to help companies to get reasonable terms from the Syrians. Not difficult, considering the huge reserves of goodwill present in the country for India, another country seen as pursuing a foreign policy that is 'independent' of the Sole superpower. Clearly, Damascus has not heard of Jassu yet!

This has been said before, but it bears repeating: the talent pool available in the Indian Foreign Service is among the world's best. However, the critical spark is missing, and this is political leadership. Like them or hate them, the Nehru-Krishna Menon team had a clear foreign policy and followed it. Today, 'strategy' is in preparing the menus for state banquets, and in worrying about what dress to wear in the forty-seventh meeting with 'my dear friend Strobe.'

That Talbott and Jassu are 'dear' friends has been revealed to all his minions -- and repeatedly so -- by the Indian foreign minister himself. Just how dear this friendship is becoming to Indian interests is becoming more apparent by the day, as Washington once again pressurises India to help its enemies (the Pakistan army) to gain the strength needed to wreak further harm on local interests.

It would be interesting to compile the 'confidence building measures' that India agreed to under Clinton's pressure, despite a total absence of reciprocity from the Pakistan side. It would not be difficult to calculate the harm done to Indian interests by these one-sided gestures, as for example the spurt in terrorist infiltration after New Delhi thinned frontier posts in the Jammu region in 1993, again as a CBM. And yet, even today there is a pathetic belief that Bill Clinton will end his love for the Pakistani generals, a feeling clearly shared by the most likely candidate to succeed him, George Bush Jr, who believes in the 'stability' of the grave and has welcomed the murder of a democratic government in Pakistan.

Those friends of India in the US who are rushing to fund his campaign need to educate the Texas governor about US history, and how he is insulting the faith of his great republic by conniving at the butchery of democracy in one of the world's most populous countries.

Fortunately, in yet another show of independence from Jassu's 'Follow Clinton' line, Prime Minister Vajpayee has correctly refused to join Washington in singing hosannas for Pervez Musharraf, whose links to the Afghan drug cartels are presumably known even to the CIA. He has insisted on the restoration of democracy in Pakistan, ignoring the chorus of voices who urge a 'business as usual' policy. Hopefully, he will move further along the track of encouraging democracy in Pakistan, aware that only a fully federal, moderate and narcotics-cleansed Pakistan can accept a policy of peace with India.

New Delhi needs to give active support to forces in Pakistan fighting against the military jackboot that has for so long treated Pakistanis not in uniform with contempt. Women, Shias, Mohajirs, Ahmediyas, Hindus, Christians, Balochis, Pashtuns, Seraikis and Sindhis are second-class citizens in that state, and only when they win equality will a climate get formed against the drain of resources towards terrorism and its partner in Pakistan, militarism.

Either the CIA is sleeping on the job, or Bill Clinton does not read its reports. Otherwise, he would have realised that it is the Pakistan army that is protecting Osama bin Laden, for fear that the canary will sing about the opium trade once he falls into US custody. Expect the fugitive onetime ally of the generals to wind up either shot 'accidentally' or suffering a heart attack. He knows too much about the heroin industry and its linkages to the Pakistan elite to be kept alive.

However, seeing the pro-uniformed stand of the US, the generals need not get worried about a change in the US policy of pretending that Pakistan has no control over its servants, the Taliban, whose heroin-related activities bring in so much lucre to the generals. They can, it is clear, rely on Dictator Lover George W Bush to protect their operations as surely as they have on Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

Perhaps in this second innings, Atal Bihari Vajpayee will break free of his hand-picked advisors and set the course for a rational and principled foreign policy that promotes both Indian values and interests. This means a degree of activism in critical regions, even though Jassu's friends may not appreciate this. For example, New Delhi can help Kuwait and Iraq negotiate an end to the issue of the remaining PoWs, that is bedevilling ties between two Arab states and forcing Kuwait to oppose the lifting of sanctions against Iraq.

India can also act as a link between Syria and Israel, as the two adversaries circle one another in an attempt to fashion a peace. New Delhi has diplomatic -- and friendly -- ties with both Tel Aviv and Damascus. Prime Minister Vajpayee can nominate a special envoy who can visit Damascus, Tel Aviv and other capitals and help in the search for peace.

In the past, India saw its responsibilities globally. For example, New Delhi backed the ANC and the PLO at a time when few countries did. It is another matter that Yasser Arafat dumped India and adopted Clinton's anti-India line on Kashmir as soon as the Americans took him on board. Do the right thing, not for gain, but because it is right, says the Gita, which has yet to be included in school curricula in India, because Jawaharlal Nehru (or Lady Mountbatten, it doesn't matter whom) thought it a 'Hindu' rather than an Indian text. In fact, the Gita and the Mahabharata belong to all Indians, of whatever faith.

Only the local 'Hindu' Taliban will oppose M F Husain, for example, drawing on his -- I repeat the word 'his' -- ancient heritage in painting, just as the 'liberal' Taliban oppose the teaching of the Gita and the Mahabharata in Indian schools, preferring the European classics so dear to the Nehrus.

Why this inferiority complex, Atal, that makes us preen when the Indian foreign minister eagerly goes halfway around the world to get lectured by a junior US official? That prevents us from injecting ourselves in regional diplomacy? India is an ally of the democracies, even though the subliminal racists among them may not quite see it that way. The closer the linkages between New Delhi and the Gulf states, the stronger the gravitational pull of moderation rather than the extremism financed by Saudi Arabia, given trained foot soldiers by Pakistan and implemented in Afghanistan.

Contrary to what the 'Hindu' Taliban believes, by and large the Muslim-majority states are free of extremism. Even in the Sheikdoms, it is only in Saudi Arabia that the women are in chains. In both Kuwait and the UAE, Arab women are getting education and equal opportunity. In Kuwait the Emir has come out in favour of universal suffrage, even though fanatics are seeking to prevent ratification of the Royal decree.

Across the border, in Riyadh, Arab women are mobilising in favour of equal treatment. Universal education and employment for women will be the best antidote against Pakistan-style fanaticism, which says that Muslims should live separately from the rest of the community to 'maintain their purity'.

In this process, India can export teachers and even turnkey educational institutions. It is unfortunate that modern education in India has been shackled by restrictions that prevent the development of world-class facilities that are self-financing. If educationists are permitted to open medical, engineering and technical colleges that finance themselves by stiff fees changed to international students (fees that are much lower than the US or Australia), then billions of dollars can be earned each year. Sadly, policy has thus far worked in the reverse direction, stopping such enrollment or limiting it to unviable levels. HRD Minister MM Joshi needs to change such a mindset.

If India is an eagle, the head reaches into the CIS states that were formerly part of the USSR, and one wing touches the Gulf, with the other spanning the ASEAN states. A leg abuts into the south of Africa, while the other touches Australia. The core is, of course, the SAARC region, with Myanmar and Afghanistan as future members of this group. The only recalcitrant is Pakistan, with its Lahore fanatics now hiding behind a Mohajir mask.

Should that country not make peace with India, it is likely to splinter, as the non-fanatic provinces decide that it is better to break away rather than be sacrificed on the altar of a war mandated by the narcotics mafia, which needs to cloak itself in religious hues to escape public attention and odium. After that, the broken-away provinces can -- as did Bangladesh -- establish ties with India.

Prem Shankar Jha is a genius but even he can be sometimes wrong, as he was on the impact of US sanctions and now when he writes of the 'catastrophe' facing India if Pakistan 'fails'. Pakistan has already failed. It would be better for both its tortured people as well as the region if this fact were accepted, and bridges built 1970 and 1986-style with those within that territory that are working to create zones of freedom and moderation from the ruins of fanaticism. Atal Bihari Vajpayee appears slowly to be moving away from the Jaswant Singhs in accepting this reality, and for this he deserves praise. Now, Atal, give us an Indian foreign minister! 

http://www.rediff.com/news/1999/nov/24monu.htm

Candidate Selection Crucial to Rao's Success

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999) 

Although there has lately been a fair amount of comment about
the linkage between the coming assembly polls in Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka and the future of the Prime Minister, it
would be accurate to say that the elections will determine the
Congress party’s future as well. Political bandwagons roll down
as well as up, and a defeat in these two states would have a
ripple effect on the polls in six states scheduled for early 1995.
A poor showing there would affect the results of the parliamentary
poll that would follow soon after.

As realisation of the danger of throwing the baby out with
the bathwater dawns on the faction leaders in the ruling party,
a more united effort can be expected. In any election, the last
three weeks are usually crucial in determining the result, and
last-minute unity will, therefore, efface much of the negative
perceptions created by continual Congress bickering. However,
as yet there is little sign of such unity. Senior leaders of the ruling
party in key states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are looking
at the coming assembly polls as affecting mainly the Prime
Minister and are, therefore, delinking themselves from them
when pressing for strategies in their respective states.

In place of efforts at building up a pan—Indian base, these
days almost all leaders in the party are focusing on regional vote
A banks. Thus, for example, Sharad Pawar is concentrating on
Maharashtra and Arjun Singh on the Hindi belt. Implicitly, it is
being assumed that the era of powerful national leaders is
drawing to a close, and that the future will witness coalitions of
powerful regional leaders within the Congress party in the
manner of the 1966-69 'Syndicate'. The only stumbling block in 
such a course is the Prime Minister himself, who has built up a
pan-Indian image for himself.

Should the ruling party lose in Andhra Pradesh and
Karnataka, however, the Prime Minister would find his influence
within his party severely limited. The Congress cadres have ever
displayed a propensity to supinely follow a leader, provided that
he or she can pull them to electoral success. After election
defeats, however, defections are common. There was an army of
top leaders who broke away from Indira Gandhi, not when civil
liberties were demolished during the Emergency, but immediately
afterwards, when the Congress party lost the 1977 parliamentary
polls. At the state level, even charismatic Congress leaders such
as Karnataka’s Devraj Urs found their flock deserting them soon
after an electoral defeat. Should the assembly polls go badly for
the ruling party, Narasimha Rao would get reduced from the
national leader of his party to a faction leader.

Recent electoral results have shown the importance of
individual candidates in elections. In the assembly polls that
took place in some Hindi-belt states less than a year ago, the
Congress party did badly in those seats where considerations
other than electoral merit guided the selection of candidates. In
Delhi and Rajasthan especially, many seats were lost because
relations and cronies of leaders were preferred over genuine
party workers in ticket distribution. This was pointed out by the
Janardhan Reddy committee set up by the AICC to analyse the
poll results.

However, the behaviour of Congress leaders in the states
going to the polls a month hence indicates that no lesson has
been learnt.

This is, especially marked in Karnataka, where senior party
leaders are vying with one another in promoting the names of
friends and cronies for assembly tickets. A union minister wants
tickets for both his son-in-law and his son, while a former chief
minister is threatening to leave the party unless his son is given
the ticket (his son-in—law is already an MP). Apart from their own
relations, each Karnataka leader — armed with lists of hangers-
on in each constituency — is fighting the others in promoting the
cause of their acolytes.

After the Congress lost power to the Janata party in 1983 in
Karnataka, it swept the state in the 1984 parliamentary polls.
Smelling victory, the Congress leaders of the state crammed the
list of candidates for the 1985 assembly polls with hangers-on.
The result was a second humiliating defeat at the hands of the
Janata party, which had been far more selective in the choice of
candidates. Looking at the scrimmage now going on for tickets
in Karnataka, it looks as though 1985 may get repeated. That is,
unless the Prime Minister steps in and ruthlessly allocates tickets
on the basis of prospects of victory.

Although at first glance the splintered opposition in both
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka may appear to benefit the
Congress party — with the BJP, the Janata Dal and the Bangarappa
Congress fighting with each other in Karnataka and the Telugu
Desam, the BJP and BSP at war with each other in Andhra
Pradesh — in reality anti-Congress voters may decide to club
together and choose the candidate who seems most likely to
defeat the ruling party. This could reduce the Congress tally in
both states to a level below the majority it presently enjoys.
However, should the Congress party field voter-friendly
candidates, the negative impact of the anti-Congress feelings in
the two southern states could get counter-balanced.

It would be too much to expect from the state leaders of the
Congress to give up their ingrained habit of promoting cronies
and relations. Unless the Prime Minister himself intervenes to
curb the nepotistic tendencies of his flock, the going for his party
— and for himself — is unlikely to be smooth.

The 'Messiah' School Vs. the Realists

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Sitaram Kesri's generous promise to Prime Minister Gujral that
he would not be disturbed for another year begs the question of
likely developments within the Janata Dal, Should there be an
attempted palace coup within the ruling party, then Congress
support may not be enough.

Indeed, it is this very support that has created enemies for
Gujral within the Janata Dal. While H. D. Deve Gowda had
attempted to create a Karnataka-model non-Congress electoral
alliance at the national level, the present Prime Minister has been
text book correct in his dealings with the party, refusing to get
involved in its internal dissensions. This does not suit those who
would like to see a straight fight between the BJP and the non-
Congress ruling parties in the next elections, with the Congress
virtually eliminated by dissensions and splits.

The embryo of the future can already be discerned. The lead
position is still with the BJP, its handicap being the narrowness
of its support among other formations. The second contender is
the collection of regional and "national" parties (almost all with
clearly-defined regional bases) now in national office. Bringing
up the rear is a weakening Congress party, with its national vote
falling below the 30 per cent level for the first time.

While the conventional wisdom is that a combination of the
non-BJP parties can prevent that party from doing well, the fact
is that such an amalgamation may in fact benefit the saffronites.
For example, anti-Congress voters may switch to the BJP rather
than vote for a Congress nominee in constituencies where the
“secular alliance" has given the seat to that party.

In the same way, supporters of regional parties may balk at
voting for the Congress if asked to do so by their chieftains, and
may support the BJP or its allies instead. Conversely, hardcore
Congress supporters may refuse to back regional groups, even
if asked to do so by the AICC.

Within the Congress, there are two strands of thought: the
first is the "messiah" school, which holds that the entry of Sonia
Gandhi will so galvanise the electorate that it will jettison other
loyalties to bring back the Nehru family raj. While there exists
a keen competition among Congress worthies for the title of
"First Follower" (of Sonia Gandhi), Arjun Singh appears the
natural choice for this honour. This group would like Sonia
Gandhi to take over the leadership formally and then begin
working her magic.

The second is the "realist" group, which recognises the
changes that have come about in the psyche of voters since 1947.

This segment, working under the direction of Sitaram Kesri,
has two strategies: first, to position the Congress as the main
opposition in as many states as possible, even if in the process
JD or CPM feathers get ruffled. Thus the Narasimha Rao policy
of indulgence to old friend Jyoti Basu has been given up in
favour of the Dasmunshi-Banerjee line of attack on the Left
Front, both in Bengal and Kerala.

It is hoped that this will result in a doubling of Lok Sabha
seats from these two states. A problem area is Gujarat, where the
Vaghela ministry may be having adverse repercussions on the
Congress base.

While targeting both the BJP and the Left parties as enemies,
the Congress strategy is to take away as many groups as possible
from the anti-Congress "secular" formation, now led by Harkishan
Singh Surjeet and H. D. Deve Gowda. Thus both Mulayam Singh
Yadav and Kanshi Ram are being wooed in Uttar Pradesh, Laloo
Yadav in Bihar and privately Jayalalitha or the TMC in Tamil
Nadu. A quick calculation is that the Congress can secure over
220 seats on its own should enough of such alliances fructify.
The “messiah" group is attempting to create the impression
that without a Nehru family member (even one born in Italy) the
Congress cannot do well. They are pointing to the 1984 success
of the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi, though others say that in
that post-assassination mood, even Pranab Mukherjee would
have been able to engineer a massive win for the then ruling
party.

Privately, many high-level Congress functionaries admit
that in the emerging political culture, dynastic logic does not
work. Further, that ugly comments about the lengthy foreign
stays of the Gandhi family siblings and the business dealings of
friends and relatives may in fact hurt the party’s interests.
However, in public they join in the chorus of Sonia Lao Desh
Bachao.

In fact, while the vote-getting abilities of Sonia Gandhi may
be an untested proposition, what is clear is that a party where she
plays a dominant role will be much less able to attract support
from other formations. For every Moopanar who compares her
to Annie Besant, there is a Ramkrishna Hedge who says that only
a democratised Congress will become a worthwhile poll partner.
Just as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad is acting as a dampener on
the efforts of the BJP to attract allies, the Sonia factor is scaring
away formations from the Congress.

It is also preventing the party from an honest introspection
into just why it has slipped so badly. Such an exercise would
show that the creation of a family dictatorship and the adoption
of policies that were tailored to personal needs were primary
factors behind the collapse.

Unless the Congress party can fashion a new India-relevant
platform, in which it marries nationalist goals to the needs of a
globalised market economy, it is unlikely to evoke resonance
within the electorate. By chasing after saviours, the party office·
bearers are distancing themselves even further from the demands
of the new electorate.