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Sunday, 23 March 2014
Dissent in BJP signifies health, not weakness (Sunday Guardian)
Monday, 17 March 2014
For Narendra Modi, enemies can be more useful than friends (Sunday Guardian)
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Narendra Modi, with B.S. Yeddyurappa and other BJP members, waves to supporters at a rally in Karnataka’s Davangere on 18 February. PTI
ow that Narendra Modi seems close to entering South Block as the occupant of its most prized office, those who have made a career out of belittling and badmouthing him seem to be undergoing an epiphany. They have begun to blanket Modi with advice, if not in person, then through newspaper columns and television appearances. The most common refrain is that he should morph into another Vajpayee.
During the time in office of the NDA, a very powerful Brajesh Mishra saw to it that those close to the Congress continued to enjoy privileged access to the corridors of power, and indeed were preferred to those who were on the other side (i.e. the BJP's side) during the tough times when non-BJP regimes were occupying North and South Blocks. Indeed, so potent was the brew of political correctness during 1998-2004 that a particular journalist (now turned academic), who made a few unflattering references to Pervez Musharraf, abruptly found himself exiled from the Doordarshan studio because the PMO was apprehensive that seeing him on screen would offend the tender sensibilities of the man whom Vajpayee gave respectability to by inviting him to Agra soon after Musharraf's military coup against the elected Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif.
Should Modi become the Prime Minister and not succeed in ensuring that team Modi be very different from what team Vajpayee was, disillusion will set in very quickly among those who have flocked to his banner. The reported presence of some unusual (albeit well known) names within the list of BJP candidates indicates that this is a lesson that Modi has imbibed well.
However, apart from asking Modi to adopt a Brajesh Mishra policy of condoning and indeed rewarding those who back the Congress Party, the other suggestion being made to the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate is that he should pick up more allies, if necessary from bus stands and from railway platforms. On the contrary, the strength of Narendra Modi has been that he is unwilling to compromise, and that he does not look at temporary advantage but remains wedded to a long-term vision and strategy. However, some of the recent alliances made by the BJP go entirely counter to such a Weltanschauung. For example, by inducting the PMK and the MDMK into the NDA, the BJP is annoying several key voting blocs for whom the two are anathema.
The PMK and the MDMK will insist on contesting seats where they have influence, hoping to win them because of the extra boost given by an alliance with a leader who has become as well known throughout Tamil Nadu as Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. As for the other seats, which the BJP will be left with, there will be precious little help from the MDMK or the PMK because these parties are toxic to voters there. In the same way, the LJP may turn away more voters in Bihar than it brings to the NDA.
In Andhra Pradesh as well, tagging along with the TDP will be disastrous in Telengana, as well as dilute what may be called the "Modi Magic" in Seemandhra. Quite apart, of course, from the fact that both the TRS as well as the YSR Congress will be very reluctant to join in an alliance that includes Chandrababu Naidu.
Indeed, what can give the BJP 50-odd seats in UP and 25-odd seats in Bihar will be voters from rival parties who in the final stretch will switch their votes to the BJP to prevent their regional rival from winning a seat.
In constituencies in UP and Bihar where the fight is between the BJP and with one of the regional parties (the other being way behind as the campaign enters its final week), such a transfer of "secular" votes to Narendra Modi may take place.
Thus, in constituencies where the SP is trailing behind the BSP, its supporters may silently switch to the BJP to prevent the BSP from winning. In Bihar, seats where the RJD is way behind the JDU may see many of Lalu's voters move to the NDA in order to reduce the JDU tally, and vice versa.
It is precisely because the supporters of several regional parties dislike their "secular" rivals more than they do Modi that the BJP is likely to get about 75 seats from the two most-densely populated states of the country.
The negative impact of "allies" on the image of the BJP and the backing given in the voting booth by "rivals" intent less on defeating not Modi than their regional foes ought to ensure victory for the BJP. The hard part will, of course, come after the polls, as team Modi fights to ensure that it avoids becoming a repeat of 1998-2004.
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Saturday, 15 March 2014
Thursday, 13 March 2014
Monday, 10 March 2014
Remember Asiad before targeting Kashmiri students (Sunday Guardian)
MD Nalapat
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Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale
uring the 1982 Asian Games in Delhi, fear of a terror attack by ISI-funded and trained Khalistani militants led to a substantial overreaction by the Haryana police. Anyone with a turban was pulled off buses and trains while entering the national capital — their national capital — and questioned, often with not even the pretence of courtesy. It needs to be borne in mind that at no stage during the decade-long Punjab insurgency was more than a small fraction of the Sikh population in cahoots with the terror gangs seeking to drive Sikh moderates and minorities out of the state, the way other groups succeeded in Kashmir in doing to the Pandit community in 1990. Indeed, it was largely due to the patriotism and bravery of Sikh police persons, together with an Army where Sikhs had and have a keystone role, that the insurgency was crushed and the state returned to stability, albeit 12 years after the Asiad. While then Chief Minister of Haryana, Bhajan Lal has been portrayed as the prime mover behind the typecasting of an entire community by the local police, in fact the Union Home Ministry masterminded the entire operation, down to details such as the number of road blocks needing to be set up.
Because of errors committed by both Union Home Ministers, first Zail Singh and later R. Venkataraman, the Khalistan movement gained significant traction, reaching its most distressing point in the takeover of the sublime Golden Temple at Amritsar by Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his supporters, and to the Army action against the secessionists in mid-1984; followed by the assassination of Indira Gandhi on 31 October 1984. Errors in the perception of the ground situation led to faulty tactics, so that much damage was done to the shrine. Then Home Minister Zail Singh witnessed at close range, now as President of India, the poisoned result of his policy of standing by while some in his party propped up Bhindranwale as a counter not just to the Akalis but to Chief Minister Darbara Singh, a first-class administrator, who was let down by his own party and shunted out of the state in 1983 before he could subdue the insurgency. First under-reaction and subsequently over-reaction characterised much of policy towards the operations of the ISI in the Punjab, with the result that the situation steadily worsened.
And now comes news that several dozen Kashmiri students — clearly from the Valley, as in most other parts of the state, the very name "Pakistan" evokes anathema — were sought to be criminally prosecuted, and that too for sedition, a crime to which the death penalty has been attached. There is no doubt that Wahhabi-leaning elements in Kashmiri want to have it both ways, and have largely succeeded in this. They excoriate the Indian state while becoming wealthy as a consequence of it, and praise a Pakistan that since the mid-1980s (once assured of US support as a consequence of the Afghan war) has pursued a policy of "fighting the Indian state to the last Kashmiri".
However, they are hardly the only citizens of this country who work against the national interest on behalf of aliens. In the financial world, there are literally hundreds of well-paid professionals (several with senior politicians and bureaucrats as their fathers-in-law or as their fathers) who daily ensure immense profits for the likes of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch by speculating in currency and commodities in a manner that drives up the prices of the first and pulls down the value of the other. Almost all the steep fall in the value of the rupee that was witnessed in the weeks leading up to 25 August 2013 (when The Sunday Guardian exposed this game) was caused by a tiny clique of currency speculators operating from Mumbai, Dubai and Singapore, and who were backed by four leading non-Indian financial entities.
While Subrata Roy of Sahara has been the subject of much obloquy and attention from SEBI, it is a surprise why similar attention is not being paid to these non-Indian financial enterprises, who collectively are draining the country of tens of billions of dollars each year, besides sending commodity prices up and the rupee down, with the RBI as their cheerleader. Where the US or the UK imposes fines worth billions of dollars on such entities, in India they get privileged access to the Finance Ministry, the RBI and even to the PMO.
Students sometimes behave idiotically. That, indeed, is the charm of that phase of one's life, where such errors get condoned rather than condemned. By seeking to send the Kashmiri students to jail, and also by depriving them of their education in the institute of their choice, the ISI was not being checkmated but facilitated.
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Saturday, 8 March 2014
Ukraine division is now permanent (Pakistan Observer)
MD Nalapat. Friday, March 07, 2014 - Old habits die hard, but when continued, are often injurious to health. Through the 20th century, the member-states of NATO had a dominant position in the international order, a situation which still prevails in the UN, where the US and two small states, the UK and France, continue with their partners to set the agenda because of a coordinated policy implemented through a compliant Secretariat. It was an error to locate the headquarters of an international organisation in what was then the most powerful country in the world, and to locate almost every UN division headquarters in Europe, with not even the leavings going to the rest of the world. To this day, Paris and Geneva are the locations where much of UN activity takes place, even though this makes it impossible for the underprivileged to gain admittance when issues crucial to their lives is being discussed and decided.
This columnist is an international traveller, but had to be satisfied with just a week’s visit visa to Switzerland when he applied for one to attend a conference on interfaith harmony organised by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The GCC countries have outsourced much of their decision-making to one or the other NATO member-states, and holding an international dialogue in Switzerland - easily among the most expensive and least welcoming countries in the world to those who are not millionaires - is an example. Hopefully the GCC states will revise their NATO-centric focus and ensure that more of the conferences organised by them get held in their own countries or in locations outside high-cost and visa-unfriendly countries of the world. It is instructive to see the close grip that nationals from NATO-bloc states and their allies dominate policymaking within the GCC, which seems to have outsourced its intellectual independence to these entities, who naturally utilise such powers for their own advantage. Whether in the UN or other nominally “international” organisations such as the IMF or the World Bank (which in practice are NATO-controlled), nationals of these countries ensure that policies get tailored and implemented that majority if not solely benefit them.
The problem faced by them is that conditions have changed dramatically over the past four decades, caused in large part by the economic development of China and later Brazil and India. However, NATO-bloc countries persist in believing that they can still bend international conditions to suit their narrow interests. Acting in this belief, they create conditions that ultimately rebound on them. France, for example, wanted to ensure that its oil companies had the inside track in Libya, and was unwilling to trust the mercurial Colonel Kaddafy. Hence, Nicholas Sarkozy orchestrated the NATO attack on Kaddafy, in the process (and together with the US and the UK) killing many times more Libyans in the carnage and confusion which followed the bombing campaign than Kaddafy had in the previous three decades. This created a fractured state where radicals operate freely, and where Al Qaeda has developed several safe zones for training and indoctrination of recruits. Radicals worldwide have been immensely strengthened by NATO policies. In Indonesia for example, the separation of East Timor from the country was based in actuality on the fact that the population of that region was Christian rather than Muslim. Once the region separated from Indonesia, Wahabbi radicals in that country got a boost, which would otherwise have been denied to them in a multi-religious Indonesiaa country which even today is overwhelmingly moderate in its ethos, despite intense efforts by Wahabbis to radicalise the majority Muslim population. In Serbia, the forced separation of Kosovo has been followed by a boost in Serbian Orthodox radicalism, although this is being disguised in view of the hunting down of Milosevic and his principal lieutenants.
In Kosovo, tensions are deep between the remnants of the Serbian Orthodox section in that location and the rest, although news of this has been blacked out, once Russia was humbled by NATO intervention in Serbia. By seeking to convert Russia into a vassal state via Boris Yeltsin and his mafia, Bill Clinton lost the opportunity to integrate Russia into NATO and the western alliance, a development which would have ensured the retention of western dominance well into the first half of the 21st century. Instead of offering a fair bargain to Moscow, the US and its European partners have ceaselessly sought to push Russia into a corner, nibbling away at its influence throughout the belt of former Soviet states.
It was in pursuance of this continued Cold War era strategy towards Moscow that the EU and the US sought to eliminate pro-Russian voices in the Ukrainian government by helping to create street chaos that finally succeeded in driving out an elected President, Viktor Yanukovich. Less than a week after this took place, this columnist was invited by the Indian Council of Global Relations to give a talk on the international situation, and the prediction made in that talk was that Ukraine was finished as a united country, that it would in effect get divided.
This has happened. Ukraine is broken and can never be put back together again, unless NATO fights and wins a war with Russia, which seems improbable. West Ukraine, for which NATO helped create the conditions which led to the present situation, will become a failed state that will need huge amounts of capital from the EU in order just to limp along. Interestingly, events in Ukraine have been a further demonstration of the fact that those groups that supported Germany during World War II have been rewarded by NATO.
First it was the pro-German Croats, who prevailed over the Serbs (who had allied with the UK and the US during World War II), as did the pro-German Kosovars. Now it is the West Ukrainians, who in large numbers backed the German army during World War II, who were for a few days helped to prevail over the Russian speakers, who overwhelmingly fought the Gernans during that war. The moral is that Berlin stands by its friends, even after many decades, whereas London and Washington dump theirs.
This columnist is an international traveller, but had to be satisfied with just a week’s visit visa to Switzerland when he applied for one to attend a conference on interfaith harmony organised by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The GCC countries have outsourced much of their decision-making to one or the other NATO member-states, and holding an international dialogue in Switzerland - easily among the most expensive and least welcoming countries in the world to those who are not millionaires - is an example. Hopefully the GCC states will revise their NATO-centric focus and ensure that more of the conferences organised by them get held in their own countries or in locations outside high-cost and visa-unfriendly countries of the world. It is instructive to see the close grip that nationals from NATO-bloc states and their allies dominate policymaking within the GCC, which seems to have outsourced its intellectual independence to these entities, who naturally utilise such powers for their own advantage. Whether in the UN or other nominally “international” organisations such as the IMF or the World Bank (which in practice are NATO-controlled), nationals of these countries ensure that policies get tailored and implemented that majority if not solely benefit them.
The problem faced by them is that conditions have changed dramatically over the past four decades, caused in large part by the economic development of China and later Brazil and India. However, NATO-bloc countries persist in believing that they can still bend international conditions to suit their narrow interests. Acting in this belief, they create conditions that ultimately rebound on them. France, for example, wanted to ensure that its oil companies had the inside track in Libya, and was unwilling to trust the mercurial Colonel Kaddafy. Hence, Nicholas Sarkozy orchestrated the NATO attack on Kaddafy, in the process (and together with the US and the UK) killing many times more Libyans in the carnage and confusion which followed the bombing campaign than Kaddafy had in the previous three decades. This created a fractured state where radicals operate freely, and where Al Qaeda has developed several safe zones for training and indoctrination of recruits. Radicals worldwide have been immensely strengthened by NATO policies. In Indonesia for example, the separation of East Timor from the country was based in actuality on the fact that the population of that region was Christian rather than Muslim. Once the region separated from Indonesia, Wahabbi radicals in that country got a boost, which would otherwise have been denied to them in a multi-religious Indonesiaa country which even today is overwhelmingly moderate in its ethos, despite intense efforts by Wahabbis to radicalise the majority Muslim population. In Serbia, the forced separation of Kosovo has been followed by a boost in Serbian Orthodox radicalism, although this is being disguised in view of the hunting down of Milosevic and his principal lieutenants.
In Kosovo, tensions are deep between the remnants of the Serbian Orthodox section in that location and the rest, although news of this has been blacked out, once Russia was humbled by NATO intervention in Serbia. By seeking to convert Russia into a vassal state via Boris Yeltsin and his mafia, Bill Clinton lost the opportunity to integrate Russia into NATO and the western alliance, a development which would have ensured the retention of western dominance well into the first half of the 21st century. Instead of offering a fair bargain to Moscow, the US and its European partners have ceaselessly sought to push Russia into a corner, nibbling away at its influence throughout the belt of former Soviet states.
It was in pursuance of this continued Cold War era strategy towards Moscow that the EU and the US sought to eliminate pro-Russian voices in the Ukrainian government by helping to create street chaos that finally succeeded in driving out an elected President, Viktor Yanukovich. Less than a week after this took place, this columnist was invited by the Indian Council of Global Relations to give a talk on the international situation, and the prediction made in that talk was that Ukraine was finished as a united country, that it would in effect get divided.
This has happened. Ukraine is broken and can never be put back together again, unless NATO fights and wins a war with Russia, which seems improbable. West Ukraine, for which NATO helped create the conditions which led to the present situation, will become a failed state that will need huge amounts of capital from the EU in order just to limp along. Interestingly, events in Ukraine have been a further demonstration of the fact that those groups that supported Germany during World War II have been rewarded by NATO.
First it was the pro-German Croats, who prevailed over the Serbs (who had allied with the UK and the US during World War II), as did the pro-German Kosovars. Now it is the West Ukrainians, who in large numbers backed the German army during World War II, who were for a few days helped to prevail over the Russian speakers, who overwhelmingly fought the Gernans during that war. The moral is that Berlin stands by its friends, even after many decades, whereas London and Washington dump theirs.
Sunday, 2 March 2014
Caste alliances based on old politics might hurt Modi’s BJP (Sunday Guardian)
MD Nalapat
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BJP leaders with Lok Janshakti Party president Ram Vilas Paswan, his son Chirag Paswan and others after a meeting at Paswan’s residence in New Delhi on Thursday. PTI
fter 12 years, Ram Vilas Paswan has returned to the NDA, having left it after the 2002 post-Godhra riots in Gujarat. The welter of parties and individuals who condemned the mob fury of those days meant that Paswan could not succeed in fashioning the Dalit-Muslim coalition which he thought was his ticket towards the Chief Ministership of Bihar, though why anyone in his senses would wish to be CM of Bihar is another question. Since his stand against L.K. Advani's Rath Yatra and his devotion to a monochromatic view of communal unrest — where the majority community is always guilty and the minorities eternally innocent — it is not Lalu Prasad Yadav that has had the first claim on sentiment, that intangible factor which drives a goodly part of the vote, not only of minorities, but of almost all voting blocs. The only time Lalu was less than an unmitigated disaster in matters of governance was after he came to Delhi bruised by the fodder scam. Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav became a tad more nervous of taking controversial (or in other words, commercial) decisions after having been singed by CBI fire. Despite current CBI chief Ranjit Sinha apparently finding him guiltless in that scam, another officer refused to accept Sinha's verdict and continued with his enquiries. Officer U.N. Biswas, proved the undoing of Lalu, although it was his career that languished subsequently, while that of Ranjit Sinha prospered.
Errors in alliance politics, especially in Tamil Nadu and in Andhra Pradesh, were not the only factors behind the defeat of the NDA in 2004. The BJP's error in repeating almost all its 1999 list, even when many of the MPs had become unpopular during the past five years, played a huge role in the electoral rout, an error repeated by the party in 2009.
However, a well-crafted alliance system can provide the tailwind needed for the BJP to cruise past the 220 seats that the party needs if Prime Minister Modi is to lead a stable government. Hence, the importance of the choice of allies by the BJP. Because this columnist is a voter in Gurgaon, perhaps he may be excused for beginning with Haryana, a state where 80% of the population is non-Jat, but which has had Jat-centric administrations for long periods, whether under Bansi Lal or Devi Lal or Om Prakash Chautala or now, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Will the BJP opt for a deal with Chautala and thereby perpetuate a Jat-centric image when Assembly elections come this year, or will it follow the Devaraj Urs strategy of uniting all others rather than relying on the dominant caste? Urs unified Karnataka's backward castes, dalits and minorities who were chafing at the dominance of Lingayats and Vokkaligas, and swept the polls. Allowing the Jat vote to get divided by Hooda and Chautala and fighting the election on a "Justice to All" platform rather than a Chautala-based Jat-centric platform would be a repeat of the Devaraj Urs strategy, this time by the BJP, and most likely repeat the success of the crafty southern politician.
What about Andhra Pradesh? Although conventional wisdom holds that the TDP is the best ally of the BJP, in fact that party may be a liability not only in the Telangana region (where it is toxic) but in Seemandhra. This is because of the caste connotation linked to the TDP, a party which puts off several groups powerfully attracted to Modi's message. In a multi-cornered contest, with Kiran Reddy, Jagan Reddy, Congress, BJP, TRS and TDP slugging it out by themselves, the 25% vote of undiluted Modi fans in AP may prove decisive in more than 10 seats across the state, while even the TRS may be willing to come to a post-poll agreement with the BJP, because of the saffron party's backing for the new state.
As for Tamil Nadu, while most speak of arithmetic, it needs to be remembered that there are both pluses and minuses. Both the MDMK's Vaiko as well as the PMK's Ramadoss are toxic to several pro-Modi voting blocs in Tamil Nadu, and will take away as many or more votes from the BJP as they would add to the saffron party. Alliances which dilute the Modi message of good governance or are based purely on caste logic may in some states hurt rather than help a Modi-fying BJP, which by the way, seems under Rajnath Singh to be changing to the Bharatiya Sarkari Janata Party, given the number of retired babus now flocking to it. To win the 220-plus seats its new leader needs, the party will need to show the electorate that it will not, via openly "Old Politics" alliances, sacrifice its future by binding itself to relics of a discredited past.
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/caste-alliances-based-on-old-politics-might-hurt-modis-bjp
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Saturday, 1 March 2014
Vajpayee’s Lucknow legacy: Rajnath or Narendra Modi? (Sunday Guardian)
New Delhi | 1st Mar 2014
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Rajnath Singh speaks in New Delhi on Saturday. PTI
he Sunday Guardian was the first to report (weeks before it happened) that Rajnath Singh would succeed Nitin Gadkari as BJP president (Rajnath may be next BJP president, 28 October 2012). Now the Thakur leader from Uttar Pradesh has set his sights on a loftier goal, that of being made the Prime Minister of India in May 2014 "in case the numbers do not permit Narendra Modi to take charge". According to party sources close to the BJP president, Rajnath Singh is "seeking to increase the tickets given to Thakurs in the Hindi belt", including by the expedient of welcoming into the BJP several Thakurs from politics and the civil service. The names of former Home Secretary R.K. Singh and Sushil Singh from Bihar are being mentioned in this context, as also UP leaders Sushil Singh, Jagdambika Pal, Brijbhushan Saran Singh as also Vijay Bahadur Singh from Hamirpur. General V.K. Singh, a favourite as the country's next Raksha Mantri, has a strong base not only among current and former servicemen but within the Thakur community too.
The BJP organisation has come under the control of a troika, comprising Arun Jaitley, organisation secretary Ramlal and Rajnath Singh himself. Whether the bonhomie will last post-poll is another question, as Arun Jaitley is seen as the most likely alternative to Narendra Modi, in view of his close relations with the latter. Besides, Jaitley has excellent contacts with the media as well as with political leaders across the spectrum, although within the BJP, he is not the most popular candidate, despite his low-key and unobtrusive style of functioning. It needs to be reiterated that the basis behind such contingency planning is a post-poll situation where the powerful troika of three lady Chief Ministers, Jayalalithaa, Mamata and Mayawati, may together hold the key to the Prime Ministership. "The calculation of those in the BJP who see themselves as the better choice is that none of the three would like to see a strong PM", which is what Narendra Modi would be.
The deference shown by Amit Shah towards the Jaitley-Rajnath-Ramlal troika is bothering BJP insiders, who are worried about "tickets being given to candidates who would be vulnerable to the Aam Aadmi Party's charges". It needs to be remembered that the BJP in UP has never recovered from the time Rajnath served as CM of the state, nor could it win the 2004 polls under his leadership, despite the presence of A.B. Vajpayee. Indeed, the former PM's political legacy is now coming into focus. Key BJP leaders from UP (where the bulk of seats are expected to go to the saffron party) want Narendra Modi to contest from Vajpayee's Lucknow constituency, which was won by him even in 2004 and carried by his acolyte Lalji Tandon despite the BJP's overall reverses in 2009. "If Modi fights from Lucknow, he will win easily, and be seen as the natural heir to Atalji's legacy," said a top BJP leader.
"If Modi fights from Varanasi, his Hindutva image will get reinforced, whereas in Lucknow he will be seen as closer to the moderate legacy of Vajpayee", a senior BJP leader said, adding that "in the overall context, contesting from the state capital would send a powerful signal of going beyond religious issues into that of overall development", the true strength of Modi. He however added that "the Vajpayee legacy is why Rajnathji wants Lucknow as his constituency. It is learnt that M.M. Joshi is reluctant to shift to Allahabad, as the BJP has been placed at a disadvantage there after its 2009 delimitation and bifurcation. Interestingly, former BJP president Nitin Gadkari (who is close to the RSS) has begun reaching out to the Muslim community, having succeeded in getting control of the Nagpur city corporation with the help of Muslim corporators. "If Gadkari Saheb becomes Home Minister, Muslims will be safe," said a community leader in Nagpur who has recently switched his support from the NCP to the BJP.
BJP insiders say that the Jailtley-Rajnath-Ramlal troika is looking at filling up the list of candidates with those expected to back them in any future post-poll scenario. However, they face two obstacles. The first is Narendra Modi himself, who is known to be preparing dossiers on likely candidates to weed out particular names.
The second obstacle is in the form of four BJP CMs, each of whom will have a major say in candidate selection in their respective states.
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