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Monday, 10 March 2014

Remember Asiad before targeting Kashmiri students (Sunday Guardian)

MD Nalapat
Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale
uring the 1982 Asian Games in Delhi, fear of a terror attack by ISI-funded and trained Khalistani militants led to a substantial overreaction by the Haryana police. Anyone with a turban was pulled off buses and trains while entering the national capital — their national capital — and questioned, often with not even the pretence of courtesy. It needs to be borne in mind that at no stage during the decade-long Punjab insurgency was more than a small fraction of the Sikh population in cahoots with the terror gangs seeking to drive Sikh moderates and minorities out of the state, the way other groups succeeded in Kashmir in doing to the Pandit community in 1990. Indeed, it was largely due to the patriotism and bravery of Sikh police persons, together with an Army where Sikhs had and have a keystone role, that the insurgency was crushed and the state returned to stability, albeit 12 years after the Asiad. While then Chief Minister of Haryana, Bhajan Lal has been portrayed as the prime mover behind the typecasting of an entire community by the local police, in fact the Union Home Ministry masterminded the entire operation, down to details such as the number of road blocks needing to be set up.
Because of errors committed by both Union Home Ministers, first Zail Singh and later R. Venkataraman, the Khalistan movement gained significant traction, reaching its most distressing point in the takeover of the sublime Golden Temple at Amritsar by Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his supporters, and to the Army action against the secessionists in mid-1984; followed by the assassination of Indira Gandhi on 31 October 1984. Errors in the perception of the ground situation led to faulty tactics, so that much damage was done to the shrine. Then Home Minister Zail Singh witnessed at close range, now as President of India, the poisoned result of his policy of standing by while some in his party propped up Bhindranwale as a counter not just to the Akalis but to Chief Minister Darbara Singh, a first-class administrator, who was let down by his own party and shunted out of the state in 1983 before he could subdue the insurgency. First under-reaction and subsequently over-reaction characterised much of policy towards the operations of the ISI in the Punjab, with the result that the situation steadily worsened.
And now comes news that several dozen Kashmiri students — clearly from the Valley, as in most other parts of the state, the very name "Pakistan" evokes anathema — were sought to be criminally prosecuted, and that too for sedition, a crime to which the death penalty has been attached. There is no doubt that Wahhabi-leaning elements in Kashmiri want to have it both ways, and have largely succeeded in this. They excoriate the Indian state while becoming wealthy as a consequence of it, and praise a Pakistan that since the mid-1980s (once assured of US support as a consequence of the Afghan war) has pursued a policy of "fighting the Indian state to the last Kashmiri".
However, they are hardly the only citizens of this country who work against the national interest on behalf of aliens. In the financial world, there are literally hundreds of well-paid professionals (several with senior politicians and bureaucrats as their fathers-in-law or as their fathers) who daily ensure immense profits for the likes of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch by speculating in currency and commodities in a manner that drives up the prices of the first and pulls down the value of the other. Almost all the steep fall in the value of the rupee that was witnessed in the weeks leading up to 25 August 2013 (when The Sunday Guardian exposed this game) was caused by a tiny clique of currency speculators operating from Mumbai, Dubai and Singapore, and who were backed by four leading non-Indian financial entities.
While Subrata Roy of Sahara has been the subject of much obloquy and attention from SEBI, it is a surprise why similar attention is not being paid to these non-Indian financial enterprises, who collectively are draining the country of tens of billions of dollars each year, besides sending commodity prices up and the rupee down, with the RBI as their cheerleader. Where the US or the UK imposes fines worth billions of dollars on such entities, in India they get privileged access to the Finance Ministry, the RBI and even to the PMO.
Students sometimes behave idiotically. That, indeed, is the charm of that phase of one's life, where such errors get condoned rather than condemned. By seeking to send the Kashmiri students to jail, and also by depriving them of their education in the institute of their choice, the ISI was not being checkmated but facilitated.

Saturday, 8 March 2014

Ukraine division is now permanent (Pakistan Observer)

MD Nalapat. Friday, March 07, 2014 - Old habits die hard, but when continued, are often injurious to health. Through the 20th century, the member-states of NATO had a dominant position in the international order, a situation which still prevails in the UN, where the US and two small states, the UK and France, continue with their partners to set the agenda because of a coordinated policy implemented through a compliant Secretariat. It was an error to locate the headquarters of an international organisation in what was then the most powerful country in the world, and to locate almost every UN division headquarters in Europe, with not even the leavings going to the rest of the world. To this day, Paris and Geneva are the locations where much of UN activity takes place, even though this makes it impossible for the underprivileged to gain admittance when issues crucial to their lives is being discussed and decided. 

This columnist is an international traveller, but had to be satisfied with just a week’s visit visa to Switzerland when he applied for one to attend a conference on interfaith harmony organised by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. The GCC countries have outsourced much of their decision-making to one or the other NATO member-states, and holding an international dialogue in Switzerland - easily among the most expensive and least welcoming countries in the world to those who are not millionaires - is an example. Hopefully the GCC states will revise their NATO-centric focus and ensure that more of the conferences organised by them get held in their own countries or in locations outside high-cost and visa-unfriendly countries of the world. It is instructive to see the close grip that nationals from NATO-bloc states and their allies dominate policymaking within the GCC, which seems to have outsourced its intellectual independence to these entities, who naturally utilise such powers for their own advantage. Whether in the UN or other nominally “international” organisations such as the IMF or the World Bank (which in practice are NATO-controlled), nationals of these countries ensure that policies get tailored and implemented that majority if not solely benefit them.

The problem faced by them is that conditions have changed dramatically over the past four decades, caused in large part by the economic development of China and later Brazil and India. However, NATO-bloc countries persist in believing that they can still bend international conditions to suit their narrow interests. Acting in this belief, they create conditions that ultimately rebound on them. France, for example, wanted to ensure that its oil companies had the inside track in Libya, and was unwilling to trust the mercurial Colonel Kaddafy. Hence, Nicholas Sarkozy orchestrated the NATO attack on Kaddafy, in the process (and together with the US and the UK) killing many times more Libyans in the carnage and confusion which followed the bombing campaign than Kaddafy had in the previous three decades. This created a fractured state where radicals operate freely, and where Al Qaeda has developed several safe zones for training and indoctrination of recruits. Radicals worldwide have been immensely strengthened by NATO policies. In Indonesia for example, the separation of East Timor from the country was based in actuality on the fact that the population of that region was Christian rather than Muslim. Once the region separated from Indonesia, Wahabbi radicals in that country got a boost, which would otherwise have been denied to them in a multi-religious Indonesiaa country which even today is overwhelmingly moderate in its ethos, despite intense efforts by Wahabbis to radicalise the majority Muslim population. In Serbia, the forced separation of Kosovo has been followed by a boost in Serbian Orthodox radicalism, although this is being disguised in view of the hunting down of Milosevic and his principal lieutenants.

In Kosovo, tensions are deep between the remnants of the Serbian Orthodox section in that location and the rest, although news of this has been blacked out, once Russia was humbled by NATO intervention in Serbia. By seeking to convert Russia into a vassal state via Boris Yeltsin and his mafia, Bill Clinton lost the opportunity to integrate Russia into NATO and the western alliance, a development which would have ensured the retention of western dominance well into the first half of the 21st century. Instead of offering a fair bargain to Moscow, the US and its European partners have ceaselessly sought to push Russia into a corner, nibbling away at its influence throughout the belt of former Soviet states.

It was in pursuance of this continued Cold War era strategy towards Moscow that the EU and the US sought to eliminate pro-Russian voices in the Ukrainian government by helping to create street chaos that finally succeeded in driving out an elected President, Viktor Yanukovich. Less than a week after this took place, this columnist was invited by the Indian Council of Global Relations to give a talk on the international situation, and the prediction made in that talk was that Ukraine was finished as a united country, that it would in effect get divided.

This has happened. Ukraine is broken and can never be put back together again, unless NATO fights and wins a war with Russia, which seems improbable. West Ukraine, for which NATO helped create the conditions which led to the present situation, will become a failed state that will need huge amounts of capital from the EU in order just to limp along. Interestingly, events in Ukraine have been a further demonstration of the fact that those groups that supported Germany during World War II have been rewarded by NATO.

First it was the pro-German Croats, who prevailed over the Serbs (who had allied with the UK and the US during World War II), as did the pro-German Kosovars. Now it is the West Ukrainians, who in large numbers backed the German army during World War II, who were for a few days helped to prevail over the Russian speakers, who overwhelmingly fought the Gernans during that war. The moral is that Berlin stands by its friends, even after many decades, whereas London and Washington dump theirs.


Sunday, 2 March 2014

Caste alliances based on old politics might hurt Modi’s BJP (Sunday Guardian)

MD Nalapat
BJP leaders with Lok Janshakti Party president Ram Vilas Paswan, his son Chirag Paswan and others after a meeting at Paswan’s residence in New Delhi on Thursday. PTI
fter 12 years, Ram Vilas Paswan has returned to the NDA, having left it after the 2002 post-Godhra riots in Gujarat. The welter of parties and individuals who condemned the mob fury of those days meant that Paswan could not succeed in fashioning the Dalit-Muslim coalition which he thought was his ticket towards the Chief Ministership of Bihar, though why anyone in his senses would wish to be CM of Bihar is another question. Since his stand against L.K. Advani's Rath Yatra and his devotion to a monochromatic view of communal unrest — where the majority community is always guilty and the minorities eternally innocent — it is not Lalu Prasad Yadav that has had the first claim on sentiment, that intangible factor which drives a goodly part of the vote, not only of minorities, but of almost all voting blocs. The only time Lalu was less than an unmitigated disaster in matters of governance was after he came to Delhi bruised by the fodder scam. Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav became a tad more nervous of taking controversial (or in other words, commercial) decisions after having been singed by CBI fire. Despite current CBI chief Ranjit Sinha apparently finding him guiltless in that scam, another officer refused to accept Sinha's verdict and continued with his enquiries. Officer U.N. Biswas, proved the undoing of Lalu, although it was his career that languished subsequently, while that of Ranjit Sinha prospered.
Errors in alliance politics, especially in Tamil Nadu and in Andhra Pradesh, were not the only factors behind the defeat of the NDA in 2004. The BJP's error in repeating almost all its 1999 list, even when many of the MPs had become unpopular during the past five years, played a huge role in the electoral rout, an error repeated by the party in 2009.
However, a well-crafted alliance system can provide the tailwind needed for the BJP to cruise past the 220 seats that the party needs if Prime Minister Modi is to lead a stable government. Hence, the importance of the choice of allies by the BJP. Because this columnist is a voter in Gurgaon, perhaps he may be excused for beginning with Haryana, a state where 80% of the population is non-Jat, but which has had Jat-centric administrations for long periods, whether under Bansi Lal or Devi Lal or Om Prakash Chautala or now, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Will the BJP opt for a deal with Chautala and thereby perpetuate a Jat-centric image when Assembly elections come this year, or will it follow the Devaraj Urs strategy of uniting all others rather than relying on the dominant caste? Urs unified Karnataka's backward castes, dalits and minorities who were chafing at the dominance of Lingayats and Vokkaligas, and swept the polls. Allowing the Jat vote to get divided by Hooda and Chautala and fighting the election on a "Justice to All" platform rather than a Chautala-based Jat-centric platform would be a repeat of the Devaraj Urs strategy, this time by the BJP, and most likely repeat the success of the crafty southern politician.
What about Andhra Pradesh? Although conventional wisdom holds that the TDP is the best ally of the BJP, in fact that party may be a liability not only in the Telangana region (where it is toxic) but in Seemandhra. This is because of the caste connotation linked to the TDP, a party which puts off several groups powerfully attracted to Modi's message. In a multi-cornered contest, with Kiran Reddy, Jagan Reddy, Congress, BJP, TRS and TDP slugging it out by themselves, the 25% vote of undiluted Modi fans in AP may prove decisive in more than 10 seats across the state, while even the TRS may be willing to come to a post-poll agreement with the BJP, because of the saffron party's backing for the new state.
As for Tamil Nadu, while most speak of arithmetic, it needs to be remembered that there are both pluses and minuses. Both the MDMK's Vaiko as well as the PMK's Ramadoss are toxic to several pro-Modi voting blocs in Tamil Nadu, and will take away as many or more votes from the BJP as they would add to the saffron party. Alliances which dilute the Modi message of good governance or are based purely on caste logic may in some states hurt rather than help a Modi-fying BJP, which by the way, seems under Rajnath Singh to be changing to the Bharatiya Sarkari Janata Party, given the number of retired babus now flocking to it. To win the 220-plus seats its new leader needs, the party will need to show the electorate that it will not, via openly "Old Politics" alliances, sacrifice its future by binding itself to relics of a discredited past.
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/caste-alliances-based-on-old-politics-might-hurt-modis-bjp

Saturday, 1 March 2014

Vajpayee’s Lucknow legacy: Rajnath or Narendra Modi? (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT  New Delhi | 1st Mar 2014
Rajnath Singh speaks in New Delhi on Saturday. PTI
he Sunday Guardian was the first to report (weeks before it happened) that Rajnath Singh would succeed Nitin Gadkari as BJP president (Rajnath may be next BJP president, 28 October 2012). Now the Thakur leader from Uttar Pradesh has set his sights on a loftier goal, that of being made the Prime Minister of India in May 2014 "in case the numbers do not permit Narendra Modi to take charge". According to party sources close to the BJP president, Rajnath Singh is "seeking to increase the tickets given to Thakurs in the Hindi belt", including by the expedient of welcoming into the BJP several Thakurs from politics and the civil service. The names of former Home Secretary R.K. Singh and Sushil Singh from Bihar are being mentioned in this context, as also UP leaders Sushil Singh, Jagdambika Pal, Brijbhushan Saran Singh as also Vijay Bahadur Singh from Hamirpur. General V.K. Singh, a favourite as the country's next Raksha Mantri, has a strong base not only among current and former servicemen but within the Thakur community too.
The BJP organisation has come under the control of a troika, comprising Arun Jaitley, organisation secretary Ramlal and Rajnath Singh himself. Whether the bonhomie will last post-poll is another question, as Arun Jaitley is seen as the most likely alternative to Narendra Modi, in view of his close relations with the latter. Besides, Jaitley has excellent contacts with the media as well as with political leaders across the spectrum, although within the BJP, he is not the most popular candidate, despite his low-key and unobtrusive style of functioning. It needs to be reiterated that the basis behind such contingency planning is a post-poll situation where the powerful troika of three lady Chief Ministers, Jayalalithaa, Mamata and Mayawati, may together hold the key to the Prime Ministership. "The calculation of those in the BJP who see themselves as the better choice is that none of the three would like to see a strong PM", which is what Narendra Modi would be.
The deference shown by Amit Shah towards the Jaitley-Rajnath-Ramlal troika is bothering BJP insiders, who are worried about "tickets being given to candidates who would be vulnerable to the Aam Aadmi Party's charges". It needs to be remembered that the BJP in UP has never recovered from the time Rajnath served as CM of the state, nor could it win the 2004 polls under his leadership, despite the presence of A.B. Vajpayee. Indeed, the former PM's political legacy is now coming into focus. Key BJP leaders from UP (where the bulk of seats are expected to go to the saffron party) want Narendra Modi to contest from Vajpayee's Lucknow constituency, which was won by him even in 2004 and carried by his acolyte Lalji Tandon despite the BJP's overall reverses in 2009. "If Modi fights from Lucknow, he will win easily, and be seen as the natural heir to Atalji's legacy," said a top BJP leader.
"If Modi fights from Varanasi, his Hindutva image will get reinforced, whereas in Lucknow he will be seen as closer to the moderate legacy of Vajpayee", a senior BJP leader said, adding that "in the overall context, contesting from the state capital would send a powerful signal of going beyond religious issues into that of overall development", the true strength of Modi. He however added that "the Vajpayee legacy is why Rajnathji wants Lucknow as his constituency. It is learnt that M.M. Joshi is reluctant to shift to Allahabad, as the BJP has been placed at a disadvantage there after its 2009 delimitation and bifurcation. Interestingly, former BJP president Nitin Gadkari (who is close to the RSS) has begun reaching out to the Muslim community, having succeeded in getting control of the Nagpur city corporation with the help of Muslim corporators. "If Gadkari Saheb becomes Home Minister, Muslims will be safe," said a community leader in Nagpur who has recently switched his support from the NCP to the BJP.
BJP insiders say that the Jailtley-Rajnath-Ramlal troika is looking at filling up the list of candidates with those expected to back them in any future post-poll scenario. However, they face two obstacles. The first is Narendra Modi himself, who is known to be preparing dossiers on likely candidates to weed out particular names.
The second obstacle is in the form of four BJP CMs, each of whom will have a major say in candidate selection in their respective states.

Friday, 28 February 2014

NATO insists on ‘Doctrine of Immunity’ (Pakistan Observer)

M D Nalapat. Friday, February 28, 2014 - Those that bend will be asked to crawl.The Sonia-Manmohan team has been the most NATO-obedient administration ever to take office in India, but with each concession, more get demanded. Especially since the 2003 invasion of Afghanistan by an alliance formed to protect west from east Europe, NATO has expanded its mission into the retention of past dominance by colonial powers through military means.

The UN has become an instrument of the alliance, with current Secretary-Ban ki Moon serving in effect as a front for alliance objectives. If there has ever been an occasion when Ban has deviated in his actions from fealty to the new core objectives, the same has been kept secret. In each theatre, the UN Secretary-General has made a mockery of objectivity by - often ostentatiously - taking the same position on major geopolitical matters as NATO. It is only in the rare instances when Russia and China intervene to prevent or slow down acceptance of NATO demands that Secretary-General Ban tones down his public parroting of the NATO line.

Unlike at any other period in the past, sensitive posts in the UN are practically controlled by nationals from states which are either members of NATO or close to it, Norway and Australia being examples of the latter. These diplomats openly consult with their home governments on all important matters and thereafter, few deviate from the line approved by authorities “back home”. That the diplomats from the NATO bloc as well as their “cousins” ( Norway, Australia, New Zealand) function in concert is no secret to any observer of the UN, which has become a copy of the League of Nations by its adhesion to the principle of trusteeship, with former colonial powers assuming responsibility for countries that once were openly controlled by them, and these days are sought to be via the UN Security Council.

It is a matter of speculation as to how long countries such as France and the UK will be permanent members of the UN Security Council while India and Brazil are excluded. Because of the skewed distribution of power and responsibility in an organisation which claims to be representative of the global community rather than a relatively small segment of it, the time may not be far off when countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia decide that there is no longer any purpose in taking seriously an organisation that even in its inception nearly seven decades ago was skewed in that France, a country that had been defeated in World War II by Germany, was a permanent member of the UNSC but India (a country which voluntarily contributed nearly three million of its people in the front line of the war ) went unrepresented.

If Winston Churchill had his watt, even China would not have been made a permanent UNSC member It was only the prior insistence of President Franklin D Roosevelt of the US that ended with China becoming part of that exclusive club. Roosevelt would almost certainly have preferred India to France in the UNSC, but passed away before he could ensure that. The US has been unfortunate in that those very few Chief Executives who shed the Eurocentrism that suffuses US policy usually passed away before their terms ended. Thus it was with Churchill, as well as with another transformational President, John F Kennedy, who would almost certainly have taken his country out of Viet Nam and formed a close alliance with Nehru once Lal Bahadur Shastri replaced this favourite of Mahatma Gandhi in 1964.

Unfortunately for the US, the country has not been able to shake off the dominance in policy of the Europeanists, with Barack Obama and his Clinton Lite administration being no exception. The cardinal principle of NATO in Third World countries is the Doctrine of Immunity. This holds that a soldier from NATO must never be held accountable by a non-NATO country for any action of his or her in that country. Whether it be murder or assault on a lady, the offending soldier should be left to NATO to “punish”. Of course, in all such matters, the Nixonian My Lai precedent applies. It will be remembered that President Nixon pardoned Lt William Calley for the minor crime of having killed nearly a hundred Vietnamese women and children in cold blood, in a frenzy of bloodlust. Without the protection of this doctrine, NATO would not be able to continue its trigger-happy ways, hence the importance of the Indian case, where two Italian marines have been accused of killing two innocent and unnamed fishermen off the coast of Kerala in India. The marines claim that they mistook the small fishing boat for a pirate vessel (even though such vessels have never ventured that close to that particular coast ).That all except one of the fishermen on board were asleep on deck did not stop them from shooting first and finding out the facts later. Being from NATO, this would probably not have been the first time that they shot and killed citizens from Third World countries. Italy, as well as the rest of NATO, expects that India will respect the Doctrine of Immunity and release the two marines, who are “imprisoned” in the comfortable surroundings of the Italian embassy in New Delhi, with frequent visits by family and friends The European Union as well as the US has joined hands to warn India in private that it will not be forgiven if the two marines are not released immediately from their very comfortable embassy “jail”.

After all, thousands of Third World natives have been killed by NATO troops despite being unarmed and innocent, so why should the two Italians be an exception? Human rights is all very well, but these do not apply in any relations between those from the privileged group of NATO and citizens of Third World countries such as India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya or Iraq.

Should India jail the two, then the way gets opened for other countries to do the same in cases where NATO personnel have killed innocents. The Doctrine of Immunity has to be enforced, and this is what the EU (led by France and Germany) has warned India should be done, in order to avoid “an irreparable break in relations”. Murder is murder only when not committed by NATO personnel. All such cases come under self-defence, even when those killed were unarmed fisherfolk sleeping peacefully on deck before being shot and killed by trigger-happy marines.

http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=235010

Sunday, 23 February 2014

This is no time for silence, Mr Modi (Sunday Guardian)







MD Nalapat, 23 February 2014.
here are those politicians who dislike any individual who tells them unpleasant truths to their face. Used as they are to courtiers spewing praise with the frequency of spit around a "paan" shop, our politicians early in their stint in powerful positions believe in their own excellence and infallibility, until brought to earth by electoral disaster. Let it be admitted that this columnist is not in the "friends" list of Narendra Modi, unlike others who know the man closely. However, during the few occasions when he has met first the BJP party functionary and later the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee has ever been friendly and receptive, even when views have been presented to him with which he clearly disagreed. Contrary to the widely-spread view of Modi as imperious and more than a trifle arrogant, he has always seemed relaxed and marked by sudden flashes, not of anger, but of humour, which is why a meeting with Modi has always been an experience to remember.
In particular, Narendra Modi has never hesitated to speak out his mind on issues, even when such views have been controversial. Most politicians say things that are entirely different from their actual views, in the belief that such dissimulation will help them garner votes. Take the way in which several have rushed to comment on the Godhra train burning of 2002, when a frenzy seemed to settle on Gujarat, resulting in the deaths of several dozen Hindus and many more that number of Muslims. Whole families joined in the mayhem, whether they were Congress or BJP or neither, but this has been ignored in a narrative that places the entire blame on a single individual.
Narendra Modi has thus far refused to accept the advice of several detractors and more than a handful of friends that he "apologise" for the post-Godhra riots. For to do so would be to accept culpability in the killings that took place, and it has been Modi's view that no Chief Minister could have prevented the violence that followed television images of the victims of the train burning being taken to their cremation. This columnist has covered riots before, getting stabbed in one and escaping an attack in a second, and can testify to the fact that when a mob goes crazy, it becomes a malign force of nature impervious to sanity and often to the police. So it was with the 2002 riots, and which is why there has been no apology from Narendra Modi, nor is there likely to be, despite the pointing out of the "alliance advantage" of such a Mea Culpa. Narendra Modi is what he is, and as this columnist has said before, is packaged in cellophane rather than in an opaque material. Like him or loathe him, you know what to expect from the man.
Which is why it is a surprise that thus far, Narendra Modi has been silent on the action of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa in seeking to free Santhan, Murugan and Perarivalan, three of those who succeeded in killing Rajiv Gandhi at Sriperumbudur in 1991. Since confessionals are the vogue in these more transparent times, let it be admitted that this columnist has a soft corner for the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. She faced terrible obstacles in her youth and early adulthood in a society marked by extreme patriarchy, and has done more for the girl child than any other politician in power. However, one wishes that she had not listened to the counsel of those who urged her to release Rajiv Gandhi's killers, for by doing so she has destroyed the faith of many who believed that she was strong on national security. Jayalalithaa may get a few more "CM votes" in her state because of the attempted release, but she has lost a much larger number of "PM votes" across the entire country by this step.
But what of Narendra Modi, one of whose electoral assets is that he is seen as being strong on national security? Thus far, there seems to be silence from him on Jayalalithaa's attempted release of the three LTTE men from prison. Hopefully, Narendra Modi will not go by the advice of friends in Delhi about what and when to say, and when to keep silent, for these are the very worthies who lost 2004 and 2009 for the BJP and who are on course to keep the BJP tally near 175 in May if they run the party campaign. When steps get taken that negatively impact national security, whether these be by friend or foe, it is expected of Narendra Modi that he will speak out, thereby ensuring that Modi remain what has brought him so very far, Modi.

Rise of ‘Common Man’s Party’ (Pakistan Observer)

Saturday, February 22, 2014 - Dismissed as an irrelevance by many, the Aam Aadmi (Common Man’s) Party (AAP) surprised its critics by winning 28 out of 70 seats in the Delhi assembly polls. The party became the sole beneficiary in the national capital of the collapse in public esteem of the Congress Party led by Sonia Gandhi, winning over the slum dwellers and the religious minorities that were the primary vote banks of the Congress Party. However, its tally would have been lower had not the Bharatiya Janata (India Peoples) Party scored a series of self-goals. Till the final weeks of campaigning, it was led in the city by an individual who had been removed from the 1998-2004 Vajpayee government for reported improprieties.

As the Vajpayee government was itself seen to be riddled with graft, although not to the elevated level witnessed during the time of Manmohan Singh, that a politician was deemed too dodgy even by its relaxed standards proved to be the undoing of Vijay Goel, who had been anointed the chief minister designate of Delhi by BJP National President Rajnath Singh, who was himself appointed to his prestigious post after his predecessor, Nitin Gadkari, had to quit on corruption charges relating to the funding of a slew of companies controlled by him. The six years that Vajpayee was Prime Minister saw a reversal of fortune for many in the BJP, who got lifted out of penury into great prosperity. Gadkari,who comes from a simple family of modest means, these days flies around in corporate jets and has a lifestyle that is even better than that of a billionaire in the US, with fleets of cars and servants Gadkari became a rich man after being appointed a minister in Maharashtra, a state where money flows into the pockets of officials and politicians in abundance. While Rajnath Singh does not show off his wealth the way Gadkari does, there are hundreds of instances where individuals have spoken about him and his close family members in less than admiring terms. His perceived lack of probity is perhaps reason why the BJP lost the state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh when he was the chief minister, and why it lost national elections comprehensively when he served his first term as BJP President, this current stint being his second. In Indian politics,nothing succeeds as much as failure, and Rajnath Singh’s dismal record in office did not prevent the BJP from once again making him its boss.

In the 2014 Delhi elections, nearly two dozen nominations were reportedly auctioned by select BJP leaders to well-heeled candidates, almost all of whom lost.An urban constituency has far greater awareness of the merits or lack of it of a candidate, and by choosing candidates with a spotty record, the BJP assured itself of a low tally, getting a dozen less seats than what it had expected. The replacement for Vijay Goel as chief ministerial candidate of the BJP was Dr Harshvardhan, an honest but wholly uncharismatic figure. In an age where television makes or mars political careers - look at the trajectory of Imran Khan in Pakistan - the selection of an uninspiring albeit honest leader in Delhi to replace a person regarded as sleazy was not enough to persuade voters to go away from their attraction towards the Asm Aadmi Party and its catchy slogans.

The AAP has fashioned a series of policy initiatives geared towards key voting blocs, and this was used by them to become second only to BJP in the Delhi assembly. Now the AAP has gone national, and has attracted a battery of known and distinguished names to fight the elections. The middle class, which till now stayed away from electoral fray, has become emboldened to fight because of the Delhi victory of the AAP.

Well known individuals such as former Central Bureay of Investigation Director Joginder Singh (who was the only CBI chief to succeed in getting crucial information in the Bofors gun deal case), environmental activist Medha Patkar, Civil Rights campaigner H S Phoolka and Psephologist Yogendra Yadav are among the many luminaries being fielded by the AAP in the coming polls. The new party wants to show up the BJP and the Congress Party as being birds of a feather, in the grip of vested interests and filled with corrupt leaders.

The most powerful businessman in India is Mukesh Ambani,who has built a multi-storeyed residence in Mumbai for himself and his wife and children at a cost of more than a billion dollars, making Antilla the most expensive residence in the world. Mukesh is an affable individual with extensive media interests, but this did not stop AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal for going after him as having secured a very high price for the sale of gas from what was one a state-owned offshore field. The fact that both BJP as well as Congress leaders have been silent on the gas deal has given oxygen to Kejriwal’s jibe that both are in thrall to the powerful Ambani family, of which Mukesh is the senior member. Given the legal system in India, it is likely that the Gas Price controversy will go the tortured way of the 2G Spectrum controversy, and that the next government will find itself hard pressed to defend the gas deal against the criticism coming from the AAP as well as from a section of civil society.

These days, many civil servants have ceased to be afraid of retaliation, given the weakening of once powerful individuals and institutions, and are leaking information to activists that it will be difficult for courts to ignore. By going after India’s most powerful businessman,an individual with access at will to the very top of the governmental pyramid, the AAP is presenting itself as the best - indeed the only – effective antidote to the hated two “C”s, Congress and Corruption, and as the best bet for the third “C”, the Common Man. Had the BJP freed itself of its Vajpayee-era legacy,it would have easily met the AAP challenge. However, just two months before the general elections, the party appears to be floundering against this attractive new challenger. Now that it has destroyed the Congress Partythe AAP is turning its sights on the BJP.


http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=234407

Saturday, 22 February 2014

AAP’s plan: Unstable government, snap polls (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT  New Delhi | 22nd Feb 2014
AAP leaders Yogendra Yadav, Manish Sisodia and others addressing a press conference in New Delhi on 15 February. PTI
he Aam Aadmi Party aims to reduce the tally of the BJP to the 150-175 level at which the saffron party will be unable to lead a stable government in the next Lok Sabha. Strategists believe that a tally in excess of 200 will enable Narendra Modi to take charge, while a tally between 175 and 200 ought to ensure that another leader takes the helm, even if the BJP leads the government. The assumption is that any such alternative leader will create disillusionment in a Modi-fied rank and file, as well as within the electorate, leading to a snap poll by 2016 or early 2017, in which the AAP expects to garner the 200 seats needed to lead the next government as well as shape the agenda of governance during its term. Given that the Congress is at its nadir, the AAP is aiming to concentrate on around a hundred constituencies where the BJP is either wobbly pre-poll or made so because of the choice of discredited candidates, a list that includes 48 sitting MPs of the party.
Although its leader Arvind Kejriwal describes himself as an anarchist, the party is much more organised than its rivals. Rahul Gandhi, because of the thinness in numbers of his team, is nowhere near establishing control of a party that is still overwhelmingly populated in its middle and higher ranks by leftovers from the Indira and Sonia Gandhi periods, few of whom have made the adjustment to the 21st century style of politics embraced by both the AAP as well as the "Modi-fied" sections of the BJP. Fortunately for Kejriwal, the hold of Vajpayee-era politicians within that party is still very strong, so much so that almost all the sitting MPs are slated for re-nomination, while in most of the other seats, the usual claimants are likely to be accommodated, despite their repeated failure to get elected in past elections. While there have been reports of a Modi Dream Team, comprising names such as Subramanian Swamy, General V.K. Singh, Anil Kakodkar, Kiran Bedi, Rajeev Chandrashekhar and A.K. Doval, among others, as of now the centre of gravity is still with the senior ministers of the NDA period. Even in metropolitan constituencies such as those in Mumbai and Delhi, the BJP top brass (barring perhaps the Prime Ministerial nominee) is unwilling to follow the AAP and Rahul Gandhi in giving a try to those who have built up stellar reputations outside politics.
While Sharmila Tagore and a Nandan Nilekani are the names most in the news, Team Rahul has reportedly identified about 30 individuals, some of whom are to be given tickets. The AAP, being a new party, has done much better. Names such as H.S. Phoolka and Joginder Singh are doing the rounds for Punjab, while Medha Patkar and Mayank Gandhi are to be fielded from Mumbai. BJP leader Nitin Gadkari can expect a ceaseless barrage of revelations about his finances from Anjali Damania in Nagpur, as can several others in the saffron party, including Anant Kumar in Bangalore and Rajnath Singh in Ghaziabad. While the BJP is reported to be mulling the choice of a person of indeterminate sex as its candidate in Amethi, AAP's Kumar Vishwas is seen by neutral analysts as having the potential to defeat Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, although Sonia Gandhi seems unassailable in Rae Bareli. In Delhi, West Delhi and Chandni Chowk are seen as certain AAP seats, while in VIP constituencies such as Farrukhabad, the party aims to put up a stiff fight against Congress heavyweights (in this case, Salman Khurshid), to dispel doubts over its anti-Congress stance.
Thanks to its success in keeping the BJP from power in Delhi, the AAP has seen a tide of minority support swelling in its direction, with Kejriwal reportedly in favour of reservation of jobs for minorities even in the private sector. A slew of suggested sops are to be unveiled so as to tempt voters into backing the new party, where the expectation is that about 20 seats can be won, with ten as the floor. Kejriwal himself has gone public that just five seats should enable the AAP to be an effective force in the next Lok Sabha, with decibel volume compensating for low numbers. The aim of AAP appears to be the same as that of Team Rahul, to see this election as the semi-final, with victory in the snap polls seen as certain were a fractured mandate to come about in the 2014 polls. The AAP is spreading the message that the Congress and the BJP differ only in packaging, but are the same in chemistry, and that both are in thrall to powerful economic interests. Interestingly, by its full-throated attack on the Ambanis, especially Mukesh, the AAP appears to be gaining traction within that section of Corporate India that has long chafed at the dominance of Dhirubhai Ambani's two sons in the fields of governance and commerce.
Led by the formidable troika of Prasant Bhushan, Arvind Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav, the intention of the AAP is to ensure a fractured mandate, such that governance will become difficult if not impossible, thereby paving the way for a mid-term poll. By then, they hope to sell their message of change across the country, thereby giving them in 2016 or early 2017 the number of seats (200-plus) that the BJP needs in the coming poll in order to ensure that its nominee, Narendra Modi, take charge of the country.

Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Brother Ahmed, now tell us about Sonia (Niti Central)


MD Nalapat18 Feb 2014

Brother Ahmed, now tell us about Sonia
Hand it to Ahmed Patel, he has never hankered for a ‘lal batti’ or the army of flunkeys that accompanies a Minister, preferring the raw reality of power to the glittering excess of the form of pseudo-power that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, for example, revels in. Despite the fact that this writer has not been widely perceived as an admirer of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and that indeed more than one uncharitable soul has insinuated that he has “something personal” against the charming mother of Rahul and Priyanka, Ahmed Patel has been friendly and courteous on the rare occasions when we have met.
Perhaps he accepted my explanation that the assessments of Sonia were not based on personal pique, but came from a belief that her leadership would ultimately turn out to be a disaster both for India as well as for the party that her family owns. In 1995, when this was first expressed in print (in the editorial pages of the Times of India), the landscape of those negative about a person who is admittedly very charming when she chooses to be was as denuded of people as a landscape. Since around 2010 (a long wait, it must be admitted), the ‘desert’ has filled up rapidly, so that these days, it would appear that there are far more detractors of the Congress president than there are admirers. It has been an amusing sight to watch those who used to hector and even avoid the present writer for his refusal to join the Sonia bandwagon now search for the most uncomplimentary of phrases to describe her.
There are no two people more in thrall to Sonia Gandhi than AK Antony and Ahmed Patel, and it must be painful in the extreme for them to see their idol being excoriated daily, publicly by the BJP leaders (including those who helped her immensely during the six years when A B Vajpayee was PM) and privately by an increasing number of worthies within her own party. Which is why it is surprising that the most potent arrow in the Sonia quiver is as yet unmentioned, much less unused. This is the fact that it is not simply Narendra Modi who came from an underprivileged background, but Sonia Gandhi herself. Friends in Italy confirm that the lady’s family was in dire economic straits in the 1960s, when she met and married Rajiv Gandhi. Since then, especially during the 1980s, the fortunes of the Maino family have soared, no doubt because of their commitment to hard work and to professional excellence. It would be churlish in the extreme to attribute their financial success to Ottavio Quatrocchi or to the many business deals that this middleman was instrumental in securing. Although neither Sonia nor her two sisters managed to get past high school, all three are clearly possessed of loads of brainpower. In a way, their trajectory is equivalent to that followed by Bill Gates, who developed Microsoft despite being a college dropout.

Ahmed Patel has wisely remained silent throughout much of his political career. However, this lack of loquacity has deserted him these days, as witness the fact that he has joined the ranks of the swelling number of scholars who are biographers of Narendra Modi. This columnist admits to himself writing, in the Sunday Guardian, that Modi’s “first job was to be a tea boy, his second the Chief Ministership of Gujarat and the third is likely to be the Prime Minister of India”.

This was after meeting a fair amount of people in Gujarat who each – and independently of each other – claimed that their CM had once made tea and sold it in earthen pots, usually along with his father. There are some who are so politically correct that they wish not to offend manual workers by calling them such. They are the ones who changed the designation of “peon” into “office attender” and next perhaps “domestic servant” into “Assistant Household Manager”. The manager would, of course, be the lady of the house or the master, in case he is at that point in time a bachelor. It is probably to spare Narendra Modi the pain of recalling his underprivileged past that Ahmed Patel decided to re-designate the job of tea boy into the far more grandiose title of “canteen contractor”. Ahmed always attempts to be helpful to friend and critic alike, which probably explains this foray into the arcane world of historiography. Now that he is a certified biographer, hopefully well on the way towards his first book, it is time that Ahmed Patel did his party a favour by reminding the voters of this country that Modi is not the only VVIP who springs from humble origins. He needs to reveal to voters the financial situation in the Maino household when Stefano’s young daughter went to the UK in order to make her fortune. Thus far, there is only silence about what exactly was the condition of the Maino family. There are, of course, those who claim that the man was a close second to the Agnelli family in the matter of wealth, but this is not entirely credible. Only a very cruel millionaire of a father would banish his daughter to distant shores to work when she had little education to speak of.

Clearly, the family was poor, which is why it is admirable that Sonia entered into what must have been a life of some hardship in order to help pay the bills. Clearly, she was not selling tea (sorry, being a canteen contractor) in the UK. Then what was she doing? How did she get by in a country that is and was frightfully expensive? It is time for Ahmed Patel to blast to smithereens the propaganda that Narendra Modi was the only top leader of a national party today to come from the poorer sections of society. By credible accounts, this is a hard-got by distinction shared by Congress president Sonia Gandhi as well. The time has come for Ahmed Patel to harness his skill in biography into revealing the truth about the Maino family in the beginning of the 1960s, so that the garibs in this country can get motivated by seeing for themselves how it is possible to climb from penury to prosperity, and how an entire family, the Mainos, can make good in a way that that part of the Modi parivar that is not in the chief minister’s gaddi has not yet succeeded in undoing. They still remain where they were, while the Mainos are where they are. And to know where that “where” is, we now turn to Ahmed Patel.
http://www.niticentral.com/?p=191246