BJP main reason for AAP’s victory (Sunday Guardian)

ROOTS OF POWER MADHAV NALAPAT www.sunday-guardian.com/profile/madhav-nalapat

M.D Nalapat is the Editorial Director of The Sunday Guardian.

AAP supporters celebrate the party’s victory on Tuesday. pti At the risk of once again being labelled an "AAP stooge" by miscellaneous BJP toffs, let it be said that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has secured for itself two powerful tailwinds. The first has been snatched from the Congress and some regional outfits, and the second from the BJP. Till the BJP leadership began to act and react as though the 7 February elections were not about the 70-member Delhi Assembly, but were in fact a re-run of the Lok Sabha polls, and used up its entire supply of heavy gunnery and ammunition on a party which gained from each volley fired at it by the Prime Minister, the Finance Minister, the Home Minister, the Commerce Minister, the Energy Minister, the Telecom Minister ... well, you get the drift of the story. The high level of BJP participation in the anti-AAP campaign ensured that the Delhi elections got national coverage. To now blame the media for paying excessive attention on Team Kejriwal is a bit ironic, in a context where Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself was made by the BJP party leadership to take time off from his real work — running the Government of India — to deputize on too many occasions as the Campaign Committee chairperson for the Delhi polls. If the BJP saw the February 7 polls as important enough to warrant such an elaborate use of the Prime Minister's time, it is inexplicable why they believe the media ought to have disagreed with its view and ignored the campaign. By its incessant focus on Arvind Kejriwal, the BJP ensured that those voters across India, who for good reasons or bad were negative towards the BJP and to Modi personally, would see Kejriwal as the challenger rather than (as was the case till now) Rahul Gandhi. The BJP's campaign ensured that the AAP replaced the Congress as the perceived primary political threat to the BJP, and further replaced an ineffectual and largely absent Rahul Gandhi with a far more potent rival, Mr Muffler Man. Thus, the anti-Modi, anti-BJP vote moved in hordes to the AAP from the Congress, which after the May 2014 polls had anyway begun to lose credibility as a party that could face up to the saffron brigade. And now the clincher which ensured a vote share of 54% to the AAP: the switch of the anti-Sonia Gandhi, anti-Congress vote from the BJP to the smaller party. During the Lok Sabha polls, by his rhetoric against the Gandhi family and his promise to ensure accountability for bigwigs in the UPA known to have enriched themselves in a miscellany of ways known to the investigative agencies, it had been Modi who had attracted the substantial voting bloc that saw the Congress and its supremo as toxic. Indeed, more than its fascination for holographic images, it was the belief that a BJP government would take expeditious steps to ensure that other UPA bigwigs went the A. Raja way (the latter took place during the much-derided regime of Manmohan Singh), which ensured a swelling of the BJP vote to a level sufficient to enable its majority in the Lok Sabha. However, since then, nine months have passed and those (clearly identified) super-rich UPA beneficiaries seem as unbothered by either the Income-Tax Department or the commercial banks or by the CBI or the DRI as they were when Manmohan Singh was PM. Although this is not exactly true, it is equally a fact that by now, many see the new government as being a continuation of the old, the only difference being a dynamic rather than a listless Prime Minister. The consequence of such perceived stasis has been disaffection within the anti-Congress vote bank with the Modi government, expressed on 7 February, when the bulk of them switched to the AAP. When Narendra Modi talked of "Minimum Government, Maximum Governance", he was believed. However, since then, both the powers as well as the attitude of both officials as well as their political masters have become almost as imperious as a Sonia sneer. This columnist knows several of the BJP spokespersons personally, and can vouch for their being courteous and polite, which is why it has been a shock to witness their daily rants against any individual who challenged their verdict that the people of Delhi would give in February 2015 the majority denied to the party in December 2013. The more powerful a person or a group is, the humbler should be its or his behaviour. Instead, the contrary seems to have been learnt, with the result that few of the independent voters now remain with the BJP, as shown in Delhi, but likely to get replicated elsewhere, should the leadership of India's ruling party not enter into a ruthlessly honest stock-taking of its results, from Maharashtra to Delhi. Let it not be forgotten that even in Kashmir, where it had a party other than the Congress as its foe, the BJP did badly. And now Kejriwal (who has shrewdly declined to invite any Congress bigwig to his swearing-in) has emerged as a more reliable anti-Congress mascot than a BJP seen as being unexpectedly soft on the erstwhile government and its bag of scams. Kejriwal is correct when he warns against arrogance. In large part, his victory was due less to an affinity with him than a growing distaste for the ways of the BJP, just as last year's Lok Sabha verdict was less pro-BJP than it was anti-Congress. The BJP failed to heed that lesson in the belief that it was personality which won and not the policies proffered. If the AAP avoids such smugness and the BJP continues the way it has functioned since 26 May, Team Kejriwal could emerge with 200 seats and counting in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/bjp-main-reason-for-aaps-victory

Niti Exclusive with MD Nalapat on AAP Sweep (NitiCentral)

Feb 11, 2015

M.D. Nalapat was one of the few commentators to have predicted AAP Sweep many weeks back.

After the crushing defeat in Delhi polls, He believes it is time for an honest
introspection for BJP.

Was the Government performance at the Centre responsible for the defeat?

Has the party lived upto its 'Good Governance' promise?

In conversation with Niti Central, MD Nalapat gives us his take.

http://www.niticentral.com/2015/02/11/niti-exclusive-md-nalapat-aap-sweep-300769.html

Jayanthi Natarajan’s choice: Truth or punishment (Sunday Guardian)

ROOTS OF POWER MADHAV NALAPAT www.sunday-guardian.com/profile/madhav-nalapat

M.D Nalapat is the Editorial Director of The Sunday Guardian.

To those familiar with the ways of Lutyens' Delhi, there was little surprise in the revelation made by former Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan that Rahul Gandhi's office gave directives to her, of course couched in the noncommittal tones of "advice". The Congress vice-president has disclosed that all he was doing was helping poor tribals, when ensuring that mega projects that would have generated tens of thousands of jobs and thousands of crores of tax revenue, got throttled, to the joy of international competitors. Rahul Gandhi's protestations of love for tribals would have had a smidgen extra of credibility, were he to have ensured that the wretched conditions they live in were improved from 2004 onwards. Tavleen Singh pointed out elsewhere how certain giant commodity producers benefit from a throttling of aluminium production in India. This is presumably why some NGOs with dodgy finances have been active to ensure that India remain dependent on Canada or Australia for coal, uranium, iron ore and other minerals in abundant supply domestically, if only it were possible to exploit them. Of course, those NGOs targeting India do not appear to be bothered about the way in which Canada or Australia are digging away with abandon at the same natural resources, which these entities feel should remain deep underground in India. If this country had a halfway effective security system, it would have its own clutch of captive NGOs busily exposing those in foreign countries seen as an obstacle to this country's goals, but it does not. Instead, the spouses and children of top policymakers find (extremely remunerative) work in the same foreign-based NGOs, which are active in subverting the fields where decisions get taken by those whose loved ones have been accommodated by them and their corporate sponsors. If one were to believe the parents, almost all the children of top officials, who are educating their offspring in pricey universities abroad, have won scholarships on a refreshingly generous scale, thereby allowing an official or a politician with a few thousand dollars as income to educate a ward at a hundred times that amount, and for years. It would be an easy matter for the Ministry of Home Affairs to compile a list of government officials and politicians, who have sent their offspring abroad to study, but for reasons not difficult to guess, this is never done. { There should be no Muddle Way, in matters of high-level corruption.There are not tens but hundreds of Anil Goswamis in key slots, and they each need to be made to face the same choice, which should be given to Jayanthi Natarajan: tell all or face punishment. Every now and again, an Anil Goswami is gently prised loose, to keep the public happy in the age of Anna Hazare, Prashant Bhushan and Arvind Kejriwal. However, such baby steps are not enough. What is needed is a comprehensive housecleaning, and a good way to start would be to institute a public enquiry into both the clearances given, as well as their denial by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF), followed by a similar exercise in the Coal and Civil Aviation ministries. There must be a reason why this country is having to import quantities of coal from Indonesia and Australia, sometimes by those who have themselves been allocated coal mines in India that are kept idle while they spend foreign exchange on imports. Unless Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes down the culture of mutual protection and complicity in corruption that pervades Lutyens' Delhi, he will find that his political capital has melted away long before this year's Bihar Assembly elections take place. On 16 May 2014, it was expected that key decision makers during the Manmohan decade would be held to account for the way in which they have replaced a climate of hope with that of despair. Thus far, not enough progress has been registered on this front. Jayanthi Natarajan needs to be given a choice. Either she strikes a significant blow for a better India by exposing those who skewed the decisions made by her ministry, or she follows Andimuthu Raja in his path from ministership to incarceration. There can be no Middle Way, and there should be no Muddle Way, in matters of high-level corruption. Otherwise, the BJP faces the prospect of the AAP spreading across the country during the year, replacing the Congress party as the primary opposition force and in 2019, displacing the BJP at the national level. There are not tens but hundreds of Anil Goswamis in key slots, and they each need to be made to face the same choice, which should be given to Jayanthi Natarajan: tell all or face punishment. By not punishing the few higher-ups who are corrupt, it is the 1.26 billion people of India who are punished by what has been judged to be the worst bureaucracy in Asia. The people of this country expect Prime Minister Modi to change that, the way he so eloquently promised he would once given a majority in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. 2015 will either be his year or (if Modi does not deliver on the hopes he has generated) Arvind Kejriwal's. http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/jayanthi-natarajans-choice-truth-or-punishment

Multiple groups plan hot summer for Modi (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT  New Delhi | 7th Feb 2015

Senior officials concerned with national security warn that multiple groups, most with strong connects abroad, are working to ensure that the months after the 28 February presentation of the 2015 Union Budget see demonstrations and protests on a scale last seen during 2011-12, when the Anna Hazare-led movement against corruption peaked. While the domestic players active in such efforts are working on the plan to generate an atmosphere of agitation because of the challenge that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party are posing to other political parties, interests based abroad seek to derail Modi's reform agenda before a renovated economy reaches takeoff speed, i.e., expands at a double digit rate. Since taking charge on 26 May 2014, the Narendra Modi government is putting into place transformational changes in policy and procedures designed to accelerate growth, although as yet, such moves have been given little publicity, the focus being on Modi's foreign policy forays. Food grain price inflation has been abating over the past five months as a consequence of the government making hoarding a non-bailable offence, besides creating a Rs 500 crore price stabilisation fund. Other steps initiated by the Prime Minister's Office include moderating the UPA-era Minimum Support Prices of food grains and ensuring timely offloading of excess food stocks, unlike during 2004-14, when stocks piled up and wastage reached unprecedented levels. Also, because the UPA got passed a land acquisition law that made the setting up of large-scale enterprises almost impossible, Modi (through the LAAR ordinance) has exempted rural and other infra; industrial corridors; defence; and finally affordable housing from the chokehold of the social impact study and consent clause of the UPA land legislation. To promote production within the country, 100% FDI has been approved for railway infrastructure, while the limit for defence industry has been raised from 26% to 49%, with further boosts under consideration. Corruption is being reduced by ensuring that several classes of transactions went online, such as environment and forest clearance. Other steps to make the setting up of job-giving units easier is an e-auction process of 24 coal mines, as well as the creation of a single online portal for the filing of returns of 16 labour laws through Shram Suvidha. Labour inspections have been made more transparent, with a 72-hour time limit for the uploading of reports, while reporting requirements under the Labour Act have been simplified. Diesel prices have been de-regulated, with other petro-products likely to follow. Finally, changes in the Factories Act have reduced the "inspector raj" in industrial units, thereby making industrial investment in India more attractive. The aim of Prime Minister Modi is to make the entire process of government non-discriminatory and transparent through the adoption of online systems, which do away with the need to constantly appear before officials to get issues cleared. However, in other fields, the record of the Modi government has been less spectacular, such as in the bringing to book of high-level perpetrators of corruption during the Manmohan Singh years, and in ensuring that the estimated $112 billion of moneys siphoned off to overseas banking havens during the previous decade be brought back both by punitive means as well as via an amnesty. Senior officials say that thus far, only baby steps have been taken to ensure accountability at the higher levels of the machinery of the state, and that those political leaders in the UPA known to have enriched themselves and their families seem as yet beyond scrutiny. Interestingly, it is precisely these tainted elements, who are now mobilising various groups against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aware that a strengthening of his position may lead to tough times for them, as "a PM empowered by high growth will better fulfil his agenda of change through green and clean governance". These officials point out that there has been deliberate retention by successive regimes of colonial-era laws and the sharp contra-liberal boost in state powers (a change directed by Sonia Gandhi and loyally implemented by Manmohan Singh). Such bloated bureaucratic discretion has created a substantial vested interest whose financial interests mandate a rollback of the reforms planned by Modi during his five-year term. They say that vested interests eager to derail reform are working energetically to, (a) slow down reforms already announced, and (b) short-circuit decision-making by tardiness in the clearing of files, despite having been explicitly empowered to do so by Modi. What they are working towards is a "summer of discontent" directed against Prime Minister Modi and his policies. Select NGOs (several of whom have employed the children and other dependents of policymakers) have been working silently across the country mobilising farmers, fisher folk and the rural and urban poor to active protests against economic measures that within a few years would in fact benefit these very groups substantially. Officials tracking funding and operations of groups active in mobilising social groups across the country say that a key prong of the strategy of specific NGOs headquartered abroad is to seek to block the development of the economy, the preferred way of doing this being to use the legal and political system to block projects (on the Niyamagiri and Nandigram patterns), as also to block extraction of raw materials such as coal, iron ore and uranium from sources within India, thereby forcing domestic users to import such resources at huge cost from developed economies, whose nationals are coincidentally very active in the management levels of such NGOs. Such large-scale imports depress the value of the Indian rupee, thereby giving a financial advantage to groups based in developed countries. Interestingly, the RBI under Raghuram Rajan is understood to be focused on keeping the value of the rupee low by the purchase of dollars and turning a Nelson's eye to such massive forex drains as "royalty payments" by foreign-owned subsidiaries in India to their principals abroad, payments made without any substantive business benefit to the domestic branches of such MNCs. These branches are being drained of their cash surpluses by such payouts, as also by having to fund salary and overhead expenses of large numbers of high-priced international staff of dubious value to the domestic unit. Another signature policy of RBI Governor Rajan is sky-high interest rates, which are hobbling domestic industry and preventing jobs from being created. Despite the ill effects of such Wall Street-oriented medicine, the UPA-appointed RBI Governor is being given repeated kudos by North Block, which apparently believes that the best talent comes from universities in the US rather than in India, and which in effect prefer the interests of Wall Street to this country's Main Street. Groups working for ensuring a climate of unrest during the following months are relying on rumours of a reduction in the retirement age of staff from 60 to 58 years. This is being harnessed to motivate unions to seek a fresh 1974-style railway strike, with railway union leaders being courted for the purpose. Other sectors where a general stoppage of work is being planned for the summer are coal and banking, and here too union leaders are being contacted to get them on board for large-scale industrial action by the middle of the year. Prior to that and independently of foreign players, Anna Hazare is scheduled to reach Delhi on 21 March for an indefinite fast on the black money issue. Also, both the National Alliance of People's Movements and the Ekta Parishad have scheduled major protest meetings and movements within the next ten weeks, all of which are planned to converge on the National Capital Region. The revision in the land acquisition laws, which are deemed to be essential for ensuring investment in India on the scale needed to create millions of jobs each year, is the target of the Bharatiya Kisan Union led by Mahendra Singh Tikait, who is planning to launch a mass agitation against the land acquisition changes in selected districts of Uttar Pradesh in the first instance, expanding this to BJP-ruled states such as Rajasthan and Haryana later. Internationally, well-funded NGOs with strong branches and contacts within the country are planning a large-scale campaign that alleges major violations in human rights as well as suppression of religious freedom in India, which is expected to begin in April and peak by September 2015. The European Union has already designated India as a country of concern where religious freedom is concerned, and the US is expected to follow in April this year with a similar indictment. Interestingly, unknown perpetrators have been selectively targeting Christian houses of worship in some locations, and are working hard on placing the needle of suspicion on the BJP leadership, despite evidence from Mangalore and other locations that many of such incidents have been carried out by groups opposed to Prime Minister Modi, so as to defame him despite his focus on development. It does not take much organisation for communal incidents to get initiated in sensitive parts of India, and those behind the ongoing preparations for the "Summer of Discontent" campaign are known to be identifying locations where tensions can get stoked, thereby reinforcing those seeking to create an the international perception of India as being a communal cauldron, when in reality, overall conditions are peaceful. As yet, these officials warn, the national security machinery in India has yet to upgrade its capabilities in order to fully counter the threat of widespread social disruption through the utilisation of fault-lines such as unemployment and occasional tensions between groups. While acts of terror are overt and spectacular, such a "digging under the foundations of governance (in the words of a top official) usually passes under the radar until it is too late", the example given by them being Ukraine, where the elected President Viktor Yanukovich was taken by surprise at carefully-scripted and funded protests and almost lost his life as a consequence. The reach of social media platforms controlled from foreign countries and the absence of any domestic alternatives are adding to such a vulnerability, these officials warn, adding that the months ahead are likely to witness efforts at disruption of normal life in key cities and economic sectors on a significant scale. They say that an acceleration of growth and the return of confidence are the best antidotes to the game plan of those seeking to derail the Modi reforms, which is why an anti-reform climate is being sought to get whipped up during the budget session of Parliament. http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/multiple-groups-plan-hot-summer-for-modi

China and US both core to India (Pakistan Observer, 6 February 2015)

http://epaper.pakobserver.net/201502/06/comments-1.php

India should join the true Nuclear Suppliers Group (Sunday Guardian)

ROOTS OF POWER MADHAV NALAPAT www.sunday-guardian.com/profile/madhav-nalapat

M.D Nalapat is the Editorial Director of The Sunday Guardian.

From the point of view of both developing technology and meeting expenses, India must become a global supplier of nuclear reactors.

‘PM Narendra Modi is assured by U.S. President Barack Obama to get India included into international groups involved with trade in nuclear technology.’ The two leaders were seen at the Republic Day parade at Rajpath in New Delhi on Monday. PTI Even as the Narendra Modi government awaits the carrying out of President Barack Obama's promise to get India included into the key international groups involved with international trade and commerce in nuclear technology and products, India needs to join the actual Nuclear Suppliers Group, which is that group of countries supplying nuclear energy systems to friendly countries. Many years ago, scientists in the Department of Atomic Energy, led by Anil Kakodkar, developed the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), which is fuelled by a mix of thorium and uranium, and which at present can each generate about 320 MW of electricity at low cost and with a high degree of safety, besides having a near zero risk of proliferation. Such reactors are eminently suitable for small towns across India and in several other countries, but thus far the official establishment in this country has not taken advantage of this innovative technology to make the country's nuclear programme self-sufficient in terms of cost. Were a bit more high-level attention given to the AHWR project, it would be a simple matter for scientists to ramp up the electricity production to 500 MW, thereby making the unit even more attractive to buyers in the country and outside. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expended a considerable amount of attention on buying (very high-priced) reactors from abroad. Had he instead given an equivalent amount of time to dotting the country with AHWR reactors, the contribution to this country's economy would have been much more. However, the establishment in India seems adept at spending the money collected from the taxpayer rather than in themselves making any. If India has been treated for long as a nuclear untouchable, part of the fault lies with the cringing and supplicatory manner in which some of its leaders have presented this country's case for being treated as an equal of countries such as the UK and France in the field of nuclear power and technology. For too long, the few countries that pass off as the "international community" have sought to do to India what was done to Ekalavya by Drona, who made him cut off his right thumb after the low-norm archer had defeated the guru's royal pupils in the art. By its pusillanimity in not expanding the boundaries of its international activity in the nuclear field, India encouraged powers ranging from the US to China to Canada to Australia to seek to roll back this country's hard-won successes in nuclear technology. Now that this country has in effect been acknowledged as a responsible member of the nuclear club, it is important from the point of view of both developing technology and in meeting expenses that India become a global supplier of nuclear reactors, of course in a manner which fully meets the proliferation concerns of the IAEA. Apart from the heavy water reactor, scientists in India are capable of breaking through into the domestic production of 1,000MW reactors, and this too needs to be expedited, so that the country spends as many taxpayer rupees as possible on its own products and technology, rather than on expensive foreign imports. The Department of Atomic Energy developed the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor , which is fuelled by a mix of thorium and uranium, and can each generate about 320 MW of electricity at low cost and with a high degree of safety, besides having a near zero risk of proliferation.  Unbelievably, scientists warn privately that for nearly a year, the country's uranium stockpile is not getting renewed, rather it is being exhausted, because money is not getting released for fresh purchases of the fuel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to remind his babus that budget cuts should not be allowed to affect key functions, such as the building of stockpiles of critical materials, but fall only on those items not vital to the security and the prosperity of the country. Certainly funds are important, but North Block's fetish about the fiscal deficit is affecting key programmes, including the nuclear. A higher deficit figure added to high growth is much more preferable than a low deficit figure that causes economic slowdown. The new government needs to do some "naya soch", and a good way to start would be to ensure that India become a key supplier of nuclear energy through the marketing of the reactors designed at such huge effort by scientists at the Department of Atomic Energy. http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/india-should-join-the-true-nuclear-suppliers-group