'Masterly Inactivity' no Longer an Option for PM

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Soon after the declaration of results of the assembly polls in

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa and Sikkim eight days hence,

the Congress Working Committee is expected to meet and

review the performance of the party. During the past year, the

CWC meetings have been perfunctory, with usually the only

'decisions' being taken to "leave it to the Prime Minister".

According to the CWC members, however, should the Congress

fare badly in the polls — especially in Andhra Pradesh and

Karnataka — the coming meeting is unlikely to be tame.

The Congress has for long been a party both federal and

feudal. Whenever there is a leadership change, regional leaders

meet to select an individual whom they expect will respect their

autonomy. Although her subsequent conduct makes this hard to

believe, Indira Gandhi was preferred over Morarji Desai in 1966

because she was regarded as more tractable. The relative youth

of Rajiv Gandhi encouraged a similar view in 1984, while in the

case of P.V. Narasimha Rao seven years later, it was age and poor

health that generated the belief that he would be docile leader,

far more so than his challenger, Sharad Pawar.

So much for the federal aspect. Once ensconced, however,

the feudal strain takes over, the primary reason being that the

clutch of "central" leaders that form around the Prime Minister

cannot resist intervening in their territories of interest, and can

only do so under cover of the authority of the party leader. In a

reversal of the saying that "togetherness breeds contempt’ the

”central" leaders usually displace the regional chieftains influence,

often by casting doubts on the latter's "loyalty" to the leader

selected by them just a short while ago. Thus, in each state a

faction opposed to the regional chieftain springs up, that is given

(sometimes not very hidden) encouragement by individuals

close to the party leader. S. B. Chavan has played this role in

Maharashtra and Janardhan Poojary in Karnataka, to name just

two. So long as the party leader fulfils her or his function of

delivering votes, the regional chieftains accept these irritations

as a part of the "Congress culture". However, should the flow of

votes dry up they begin to demand greater autonomy. It is this

process that is expected to begin should the poll results indicate

an anti-Congress sweep.

There have been three distinct periods in the style of

functioning of the present Prime Minister. For around the first

year and a half since assuming office in 1991, he re-introduced

inner-party democracy into the Congress party through

membership drives and elections. Just when the process seemed

on the brink of introducing changes, in the composition of the

regional party leadership as significant as those that occurred

between 1969, (when Indira Gandhi broke away from the

"Syndicate") and 1973 (when the victories of Mavericks such as

Chandra Shekhar and Vayalar Ravi in inner—party elections

diminished her interest in giving grassroots workers control

over selection of their leaders and led her to introduce the

practice of nomination from Delhi), the Prime Minister abruptly

put the entire process on hold by 1993. The reason given for this

was that "the party leaders wanted it so". They, it seemed, did

not want a break from the culture of "Leave it to the leader", and

bowing to this democratic wish, Rao obliged. Whatever one may

make of this rationale, the fact is that from 1993 onwards the

nomination system made a complete comeback, thus once more

establishing the power to select local leaders at the central rather

than at the grassroot level. Senior party leaders claim that this

return to the "centralised" system of party management was

followed by a third stage, which has gone on since mid-1994,

around the time of Rao's return from the US tour and subsequent

bout of indifferent health (a bout that lasted for a month after the

tour). This is the period of a "near-total freeze on political

decisions" whether it is reshuffling the Cabinet or announcing

major policy changes. However, this has not been followed up

by any grant of autonomy to the regional units, with the result

that centrally backed individuals such as the Shukla brothers in

Madhya Pradesh or Karnataka PCC president Krishna Rao enjoy

an influence out of all proportion to their grassroots support.

Attempts to prise out such individuals from authority have

foundered on the rock of the central leadership’s stoic reluctance

to agree to any changes. At the same time, the dissidents have

not been able to get top·level support for their operations to

further destabilise the existing regional leaders, especially i.n

Maharashtra, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Andhra

Pradesh. Thus the intra-Congress situation in these states — two

of which are going to the polls in the current round — is one of

an uneasy stalemate that in turn has led to a significant lessening

of political activity within the party organisation.

Even if the more pessimistic forecasts come true and the

Congress loses control of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka,

Cabinet-level sources say that there is almost no possibility of an

immediate challenge to the Prime Minister’s authority. In fact,

should Rao get back to the political and administrative activism

of his first 18 months in office, he could find his position

reinforced by the time the next round of state polls are held in

February 1995. This would, according to them, involve giving a

greater say to state units in making high-level personnel changes

going in for a thorough Cabinet reshuffle and making policy 

changes, such as a budget, friendly to the Indian middle class,

the worker and the domestic manufacturer than has been the

case for the past three years. Such activism would defuse

attempts to held him to account for any December'94, they claim.

Going by Rao’s track record, the odds favour such a return

of activism. However, should the current phase of a freeze on

activism continue, followed by reverses in February 1995, there

is likely to be a take-off of dissidence to levels that could lead to

a 1979 situation by mid-1995. In such an eventuality, groups

within the Congress party could break away to join the National

Front-Left Front parties or even the BJP, thus hastening the

timetable for the parliamentary poll. Alternatively, within the

Congress party there could be pressure for a leadership change.

While Rao’s present rivals may find themselves out of the

reckoning, so might his more obvious supporters, such as

S. B. Chavan, as they may not be able to carry the rest of the team

with them. What scenario will ultimately unfold is as yet not

clear. However, it is clear that the Prime Minister cannot any

longer consider masterly inactivity as a winning option.

The Silence of the Lambs: Party Elections and the EC

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

After the tumult of the Seshan years, it is refreshing to have the

status quo ante restored, in which the Election Commission takes

a "Boys will be boys" attitude towards "elections" in which the

result gets planned in advance. Tirunellayi Natarajan Seshan,

barbarian that he was, refused to ignore such minor flaws in the

electoral process as the use of money, liquor and goondu power

to ensure ballot stuffing. By threats and cajoling, he got conducted

elections that were genuine expressions of the voters' will, except

in such strongholds of "People’s Democracy" as Bengal and

Bihar. Clearly this went against the ethos that "the Leader knows

best," the ethos that has made India what it is today.

Fortunately, these days the Election Commission appears to

have become more reasonable. Now the EC issues some orders

and the politicians flout them. Thereafter the EC members go

before the idiot box to threaten vengeance. Immediately the

politicians come before the EC and hang their heads to chest

level, at which our gallant commissioners forgive them and

allow them to get away with what they did before. Clearly an

improvement over the Seshan period, when (unelected) tribunes

of the masses went away unhappy at the EC’s failure to recognise

that public weal was conterminous with theirs.

It is in this new kinder, gentler era that the "elections" for the

presidentship of the Congress and the Janata Dal are taking

place. By a careful selection of returning officers, who have been

given mystical powers to determine who the winners and who

the losers are in each local election without so much as sniffing

a ballot, the Sitaram Kesri camp has ensured the victory of its

hero.

As evidence of the overwhelming public support to the Bihar

veteran, one may point to the fact that both the Cleans—A. K.

Antony and Manmohan Singh—are supporting him. They 

represent the middle class, now a major factor in "liberalised"

India. 

Political chanakyas, represented by R. K. Dhawan and Arjun 

Singh, are also with Kesri. The brahmins are with him, as proved 

by the support of Jitendra Prasada. The dalits are with him, as 

as been made clear by the presence of Meira Kumar in his 

camp. The minorities are totally on his side, as Ahmed Patel and 

Oscar Fernandes prove. With such overwhelming support, it

would be churlish to demand a free and transparent poll

Fortunately, the Election Commission is not doing so.   

Neither does the EC appear concerned with the goings-on in 

the Janata Dal where too the party president is both player and 

umpire. 

As that party has not yet become fully congressised, there are 

still flickers of resistance to Laloo Prasad Yadav’s attempts to 

convert the Janata Dal into a Nehru Family Congress, with 

Laloo’s charming brood as the sole proprietors. Had the horrible  

Seshan continued in office, the EC may have demanded to

scrutinise the list of electors and the process by which they have

been selected. In the case of both Congress as well as the Janata

Dal, the list of delegates appears to have been conjured up in the

air-conditioned rooms that are the natural habitat of dynasty 

politicians. How such a process is congruent with "inner-party

democracy" is not clear except perhaps to our Election

commissioners.

To less realised minds, it appears that democracy within

political parties is almost an essential condition for healthy

electoral politics. Should backroom bosses continue to control

the distribution of tickets, they will go on tailoring the political

process to their advantage. Unless the base—level workers within 

political parties have a decisive say in selection of candidates

as takes place in the US, for instance—the individuals who are 

given tickets will owe responsibility only to the bosses who 

selected them.

Thus the enforcing of inner-party democracy is crucial to

taking the electoral process in India such that it throws up a

political class that eliminates rather than covers up graft, Thus

it would appear that, if one looks at responsibilities in the spirit

of the Constitution rather than in a narrow technical sense, an

investigation into how elections are now being conducted within

these two major parties is well within the jurisdiction of the

Election Commission.

However, one should not blame the EC members for their

silence over the antics of the leaders of the JD and the Congress.

These days there are often two or even four lunches, dinners and

receptions to attend. There are the fatiguing sessions with TV

presenters.

There are the delightful tete-a-tetes with social and political

lions. Certainly the life of a Defender of Democracy in India is

not an easy one. Small wonder that bagatelles such as the

packing of delegates’ lists goes unnoticed. After all, one must

stick to the letter of the law without worrying about the objectives

of the legislation. One must above all be reasonable, especially

to Leaders.

Sadly for the Leaders, there appears to be a tectonic shift

even within political parties in India. Apart from such upholders

of the rights of the individual as Kanshi Ram’s BSP or Balasaheb

Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, most major parties in India have broken

away from the dynasty formula that parties are the property of

their leaders. Within the Janata Dal, a puny Samantaray is

challenging Emperor Laloo. And in the Congress, Sharad Pawar,

the quintessential knuckler-under, has thus far refused to step

back in line and chant hosannas to the one individual whose

brilliance and dynamism are sure to energise the Congress all

over India the way it has got done in Bihar. But for his carefully-

prepared lists of delegates, Kesri would almost certainly have

lost the election.

As it is, after he wins he is likely to face the same problems

as Z.A. Bhutto did after his massive victory in 1977. Questions

will get raised about methods, lawsuits may get filed.

Unhappily for the Leaders, the courts have not adopted the

ways of the new-look (or don’t-look) Election Commission. Our

judges are. still firm on accountability and transparency, led as

they are by Chief justice J. S. Verma. However, such matters

evidently no longer worry the Election Commission.

What a relief from Seshan and his obsession with fair

elections. These days, "inner-party" democracy appears to have

gone the way of identity cards for voters. And what of it?

There’s the Swiss ambassadofs dinner tonight, while tomorrow

that charming socialite has promised to call. It's a busy, busy

time. 

From Garibi Hatao to Tandoor Murder: the Crime Story of Indian Politics

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Those were the days. Garibi hatao was the new mantra. A

brilliant young politician named Pranab Mukherjee was finance

minister of India. He presided over some of the highest income-

tax rates in Indian fiscal history. Indeed, if one excludes the

'primitive accumulation' of socialist capital in 1919-21 Russia

(where those having more than 10 roubles had to surrender the

difference or get shot), India probably had the highest marginal

tax rates in history, at one time touching 97.25 per cent of income.

However, despite such revolutionary zeal, restaurants were full

of big spenders, and marriage halls were crowded. Quite

obviously, 2.75 per cent of income went a long way.

It was not just through confiscatory taxation that the evil rich

were crushed. The Industries (Development & Regulation) Act

laid down stringent penalties for producing "beyond capacity":

efficiency was penalised. And few were efficient, at least on

record. They could not afford to be. As for taxpayers, obviously

they were honest. They must have been, seeing that only two or

three individuals went to jail each year for tax evasion.

Revolution was in the air, and a worker — Venkata Giri

Varaha Giri - was elected President of India, defeating the

nominee of the capitalists. Though we were only college students,

we wanted to participate in the ferment, We called on Mohan

Dharia, a devotee of proletarian internationalism, who was

staying in that symbol of village life, Bombay's Ambassador

Hotel. In a cavernous air-conditioned suite, waiters flitted about

with food and drink. We were not offered refreshments, nor

asked to sit. Social revolutionaries must learn to be tough. And

thick—skinned: Dharia and half a dozen other netas shooed us

away, saying they were going to the AICC in the Air-India

building.

As we trudged to the venue, we were passed by the netas

zipping there in air-conditioned limousines. Dharia took the

floor speaking for nearly an hour on the need for Gandhian

simplicity and revolutionary zeal. Snacks were served to those

on the dais, while our stomachs growled. Fleets of limousines

waited outside. Servitors were everywhere.

It is a fair guess that few of the bills for the facilities one saw

at the session were paid for by cheque. Today, 26 years later, the

situation is no different. Political leaders jet from city to city,

hotel to hotel, convention to meeting. Expensive banners float in

the air, posters cover the walls...And a pecking order gets

established. Junior cadres eat at roadside stalls, netas in five-star

luxury. Restaurants in the most expensive hotels are full of netas,

fresh from speechifying about "social justice". One such crusader

has been abroad eight times this year. No one asks at whose

expense.

But we should ask. We should demand that all expenses of

political leaders and their families, whether on travel or hotels

or major purchases, be made public. That all the assets bought

by them and their sons and daughters be similarly open to

scrutiny. The expenses of the typical "socialist" crusader would

tot up to several lakhs of rupees a month. Going to New York

or Paris — naturally in the defence of working-class interests —

does not come cheap.

There are two reasons why crime and politics have become

inseparable in India, The first is the fact that few political parties

have inner-party democracy. The rank and file have virtually no

say in who the office-bearers should be, So the Sushil Sharmas

— the procurers of ’services’ for netas — dominate. In such a

culture, promotion depends on attending the durbar of leaders,

gifts in tow, rather than on grassroots work. Unless a system is

introduced whereby the rank and file elect their leaders — as the

primary system ensures in the US — and have a say in who the

candidate should be, criminals will continue to infest Indian

politics.

Apart from introducing inner-party democracy, we need to

reduce the power of the state in decision-making. Just as high 

taxes breed evaders, needless regulation generate corruption.

Though considerable progress has been made during the current

dispensation in loosening the stranglehold of government - and,

by implication, politicians - much more needs to be done before

commonsense rather than suitcases determine the direction of

policy. Just as those who have black money are not dismayed by

high taxes, those auctioning decisions vehemently defend the

powers of the state to intrude into most areas of our economic

life. The tandoor murder episode has a long genesis, having been

spawned by the lifestyles of our leaders, the lack of accountability

to those who elected them, and the grip of government over our

lives.

We need to put away not just an indicted individual but the 

entire guilty system.

India's Kashmir Policy: Separate Wolves from the Sheep

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

The hostile reaction from Pakistan-financed organisations to the 

proposal to hold elections in Kashmir should be reason enough 

to go ahead with them. Islamabad is aware that even if the voter 

turn-out were poor due to fear of violence the very replacement 

of central rule with an administration run by local Kashmiris  

could well bring down the "hate level" to a degree that would 

be sufficient to undermine popular support for militancy. This is 

exactly what happened is Assam and Punjab. Thus, the fact that 

many Kashmiris are not favourably disposed to elections is not 

reason enough to abandon the idea. That such hostility exists is 

beyond doubt. A poll on Kashmir recently in the inaugural issue 

of a weekly magazine found that the over-whelming majority of 

the respondents favoured a solution to the state’s problems 

outside the Indian Constitution.

What the magazine’s poll demonstrates is the wisdom of
those who framed the Indian Constitution and who made the
covenant with itself indissoluble. Had there been a secession
option, divisive tendencies in many parts of the country would
have been strengthened and might perhaps have led to the
breaking up of the Indian state. In the absence of secession as an
option, such tendencies have been contained, albeit with varying
degrees of success. If India with all its diverse cultures and
languages has held together, it is only because the option for any
part to secede was clearly ruled out from the beginning.

Link Ignored
The link between Kashmir and the very survival of the Indian
state has been ignored by many in the Clinton administration.
The agenda of those like Robin Raphel on Kashmir is to
internationalise the issue and hopefully secure a result in
accordance with the wishes of the Pakistanis. However, policy-
makers here need to recognise that the appointment of an
assistant secretary who is openly pro-Pakistan as the head of the
South Asia section of the US State department is a consequence
rather than the cause of the Clinton administration’s
subcontinental policy.

US diplomats are well aware of the fact that their every
expression of doubt on the finality of Kashmir’s accession to
India provides oxygen for the terrorist movement in the state.
The fundamentalists in the Valley appear convinced that the US
and other western countries will secure azadi for them eventually
provided they continue their guerrilla tactics against India.
Western governments know only too well Pakistan’s role in
fomenting terrorism in Kashmir but choose to look the other
way. For example, the US overlooks the flouting of its own non
proliferation laws by Pakistan and ignores the fact that Islamabad
has outstripped Tripoli and Teheran as centres where fanatics
are trained in such accoutrements of "moderate democracy" as
RDX explosives and the use of Kalashnikovs. The fact that this
policy will rebound on US interests as surely as India’s help to
the LTTE boomeranged on New Delhi appears to have been
overlooked.

Little Comfort
However, this will be of little comfort to India if, in the meantime,
it follows the Clinton administrations prescription of scuttling
important defence programmes. Narasimha Rao's policy has
been to speak softly on security issues. However, the Prime
Minister appears to have forgotten the second part of the adage,
which is that the individual who speaks softly needs also to carry
a big stick. On the contrary, India has consistently given in to US
demands such as capping Agni and refusing to deploy Prithvi.
This has served to encourage Islamabad to believe that it will not
be punished for continuing its covert war against India.

What is needed in the near future is a parliamentary
commission of inquiry to determine the reasons why this country
has neglected its defences since 1989. After the collapse of the
USSR, a substantial quantity of defence equipment could have
been purchased from there at comparatively low prices. This
included tanks, aircraft, frigates and spares. For reasons that are
not clear, this opportunity was not utilised, leaving the field
open for other countries, including Pakistan. And although
reports regularly appear in the Indian press about
"breakthroughs" in defence research, the fact is that most projects
have either been put on hold or shelved for lack of funding.
It is this weakness that renders India's policy of making
concessions owing to western pressure on Kashmir dangerous.
Transparency in methods needs to be matched with firmness in
policies if the militancy in the Valley is to be extinguished. While
there should be no bar on foreign human rights organisations
visiting Kashmir, this should be in the context of a clear policy
that the state is a part of India, and that terrorism there will be
fought with the same vigour shown by France and the US against
equivalent acts in Paris or Oklahoma.

In contrast, the ministry of external affairs continuously
repeats the mantra that it is ready to discuss "any issue" with
Pakistan. Does this mean that it is ready to discuss the secession
of Kashmir? If not, this should be made explicit. Should Pakistan
refuse to come forward to normalise ties unless India agrees to
such a condition, then so be it. In the future, as its defence burden
further destroys the Pakistan economy, popular anger may lead
to a strengthening of separatist tendencies in that country. Surely
Benazir Bhutto, with her touching concern for the rights of self
determination, will not then deny such a privilege to her own
citizens.

There is a certain deja vu about the developments in Kashmir.
On January 1, 1948, India complained to the UN about the
danger to peace as a result of Pakistan’s sending irregulars into
the Valley. On January 15, 1948, the Pakistan government
officially denied that it was providing aid and assistance to the
"so-called invaders". Forty-seven years later, the same round of
allegations and denials continues. Thirty years ago—in 1965
Bhutto sent irregulars into the Valley from Pakistan while
denying that he had done so. Today another Bhutto is doing the
same. India's "achievement" in Kashmir diplomacy from 1948
onwards can be compared to a man going round and round in
circles.

Not a Strong Point
Learning lessons from history does not appear to be a strong
point with lndia's policy-makers. Whether in 1948, in 1952, in
1963 or now, the western powers have attempted to tacitly
influence India into handing over the Valley to Pakistan. There
has been a long list of diplomats preceding Robin Raphel,
individuals eager to carry forward the process of India's
disintegration that was begun in 1947. And yet New Delhi
continues to entertain illusions that "this time", western reaction
will be different. The only factor that will make it different is not
the masochistic "diplomacy" we are seeing now, but significant
accretions in India's economic and defence base.

The terrorists in the Valley cannot be countered with the
bland diet of autonomy. Rather, they need to be met by methods
they respect, even while the rest of Kashmir is given —through
the ballot box—the same rights and privileges enjoyed by other
Indian states. Laloo Prasad Yadav’s Bihar or Jayalalitha's Tamil
Nadu show that apart from defence, income tax, internal security
and foreign affairs, almost all other functions have been usurped
by the state governments. Farooq Abdullah or Shabbir Shah, the
prospective Wazir-e-Azams of Kashmir, will soon recognise this
post-liberalisation reality if they are brave enough to face the
electorate.

Advantageous Alliance - India and Pakistan should Join Hands

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Years ago, a friend was challenged by others to jump onto another bogie from a moving train. After a few jeers at his  reluctance, he obliged, lost his balance and lost both his legs. Reading the reports in a contemporary newspaper on the Pakistan elections, the incident came back to mind. They suggest that western mediamen incessantly taunt Pakistani politicians about their new "softness" on India. 

Profitable Industry 

It would be unfair to posit that western newspersons are merely articulating the anxiety of their chancelleries that Pakistan continue baiting India. Tensions between the two have evolved into a profitable industry, with individuals and institutions competing for money from various foundations and sheikdoms for studying or supporting fundamentalism and terrorism. 

However, just as it is possible  that the CIA has such incompetent personnel in Pakistan that they are unaware of the Chinese missiles coming  in, it is possible that the Robin Raphels genuinely believe that the dominance of the armed forces in Pakistan protects rather than subverts democracy, or that opening  the Pandora's box of states' integration will  not adversely affect India’s stability. Such options have to be viewed a little more realistically.   

Should the modicum of sanity evident during the Pakistan elections—where the focus appears to have been on economic issues—develop into a  help the process of mending relations between the two  countries. This is possible only if the two major political groups in Pakistan—those led by Nawaz Sharifand Benazir Bhutto—join hands in order to ensure that the legal foundations for genuine democracy are built. If true democracy were to evolve in Pakistan, there would be virtually no support for the current Islamabad policy of attempting to undermine India’s unity. Instead, the voters would push for normal cultural, economic and political ties. 

An India-Pakistan entente would make South Asia one of the major strategic regions in the world. Together with the undoubted muscle of the Pakistan armed forces, the region would have a military machine that could challenge just about anyone. Indian and Pakistani technology could jointly work to develop new markets in the Gulf and the CIS states for high technology items that could be jointly manufactured. SAARC could develop business ties with the Gulf, with the CIS states and with ASEAN  even while maintaining cordial links with other major players 

such as the US, China and Russia. Above all, the entente would generate support for a multicultural, multi-religious society such as is seen in Indonesia, Singapore or the US. There is no doubt that India would gain substantially from cordial ties with Pakistan. 

As for Pakistan, its gain would be even greater. Should Islamabad continue with its policy of support for extremist elements, the resulting financial and social drain would, in the next decade, further balkanise that country. After that, India could develop friendly links with the Sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan, while Iran would establish alliances with Baluchistan
and the NWFP. Should Islamabad continue with its policy of obliging those who promote tension with  New Delhi, it could well find itself unable to hold together in the long-run. 

Little Doubt   
However, there is little doubt that a united and friendly Pakistan would be preferable  to a vivisected one. If the two political leaders who together command the support of the Pakistani
people, can put aside their differences over detail and come together on matters of substance, they could pass laws that would make it technically impossible for another army-inspired
attempt to topple a democratically-elected government. While there may be differences over Bhutto's policies, the fact remains that She was removed from office in a questionable manner, just as Sharif had been earlier. Despite the support the Pakistani generals are getting from many countries, western public opinion in the US and Europe would find it difficult to accept the
toppling of a government once the laws that permit such deeds are scrapped. Western and Asian public opinion can be an effective ally of Sharif and Bhutto as they work together to put
in place a constitution that is genuinely democratic. Such a system should also ensure that the minorities in Pakistan get a fair deal.

Just as Mexico accepted that there was little to be gained in trying to wrest Texas and California from the US, perhaps even the Pakistani fundamentalists will realise that India will never agree to a plebiscite in Kashmir. The reason is that a reopening of the states mosaic may generate demands from splinter groups all over India for similar action. On at different footing, but illustrating the same point, is India's silence over Aksai Chin, which is based on the reality that a war with China would be an option too expensive to undertake. Sadly, the security
establishment in Pakistanis as yet unwilling to accept that tension with India because of the obsession with Kashmir is taking Pakistan on a ruinous course. However, the politicians
appear to have become more realistic. 

Should the only legitimate democratic force in Pakistan - the major political parties - get together in defence of democracy and ensure that the men in uniform are confined to the barracks the way Bangladesh has done, international opinion may militate against the type of action; Farooq Leghari took. The question.whether Sharif and Bhutto have the good sense to act in concert to usher in a democratic system accountable. only to the law and the voter. It is ironic that while President Leghari claims he is fighting corruption, most of his appointees are people of dubious repute. And what logic is there in his assertion that  democracy is being protected   giving unelected generals and officials an effective veto over decision-making? 

Natural Ally

A united Pakistan will be a natural ally of India. Instead of remaining a satellite of faraway countries, Pakistan can join the rest of the SAARC  developing this region as one of the major players in international geopolitics. India by itself cannot undertake. such a role. It needs the cooperation of other SAARC countries and this includes Pakistan.  While that country would risk its very existence by continuing its confrontation with India, India would lose several crucial points in its rate of growth for at least a decade as a result of continuing tension on its western order. This apart from the fact that an India-Pakistan alliance would generate  a massive synergy for economic and social progress. Will the political class in Pakistan remain subordinate to the generals? Or will they create a democracy that calls for better reactions with India? The months ahead are decisive. If Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto lose this chance, there may not be another one for a long time to come. 

Jhatka is Better than Halal, Gujral Ji

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Mid-November, and the Lok Sabha session has begun. BJP, Shiv

Sena and Samata party members flock to the well of the House,

waved there by their leaders, and soon begin hurling projectiles

at the Congress and UF members, In a trice, led by defence

minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, those attacked fight back.

Projectiles careen through the air, screams of the injured rise

above the din, and pools of blood form everywhere.

Soon the BJP members and their allies leave for Rashtrapati

Bhavan, there to demand the dissolution of the Lok Sabha on the

Romesh Bhandari model. In a Mulayam-Kanshi style of

inattention to constitutional niceties, they threaten that Parliament

will not be allowed to function until fresh elections are announced

under a care-taker government comprising members of all major

parties.

Had the Congress party, led by Sitaram and Sonia, succeeded

in getting the Kalyan Singh ministry dismissed on the grounds

of the very violence instigated by it, this could have been what

the nation would have witnessed in a few weeks time. In

between, the cities of India would have been in chaos as the

BJP - barred from democratic forums by its opponents - would

have taken to the streets to hit back. All efforts by finance

minister Chidambaram at economic stabilisation would have

dissolved in the face of the Parliamentary deadlock.

Those who are today venting their anger at the correct

decision of the Gujral government to retreat from its earlier

impulsive decision to impose President's Rule in UP should ask

themselves whether they would approve of the dissolution of the

Lok Sabha after violence generated by Opposition members. For

that would be a mirror analogy of Tuesday's developments in

the UP assembly.

Revolutionaries such as Kanshi Ram or Sitaram Yechury

may not regard laws as worth upholding. For them what counts

is victory, no matter at what cost. Thus a Yechury who would

(one presumes) oppose the removal of the Basu government in

Bengal because goons often beat up Congress workers, is unhappy

at the reprieve given to Kalyan Singh. Likewise, while he

approves of the feverish attempts by Jyoti Basu to bring foreign

investment into India, he is against any other state adopting a

similar policy.

As for Mulayam Singh Yadav, for him the only constitution

that needs attention appears to be his own. One cannot blame

these worthies. During the decades of Nehru family rule,

institutions got drained of substance and personalised decisions

became the norm. Sitaram Kesri, looking over his shoulder at

Sonia Gandhi, is only trying to live down to such a legacy.

Self, then, becomes more important than country. If Deve

Gowda does not show Kesri "proper" respect, he must go. Now

that Inder Kumar Gujral has followed President Narayanan's

lead and upheld the Constitution, he should be destabilised.

Should the Congress Working Committee once again threaten

withdrawal of support, it is in danger of becoming as popular in

the rest of India as it has become in UP and Bihar. Economic

factors dictate that the present government should run for at

least three years. They dictate that the “dream budget" of

Chidambaram I should be followed by Chidambaram II and

Chidambaram III.

If Prime Minister Gujral draws the correct conclusions from

this crisis, and realises that compromise breeds instability, not

firmness, it may prove a blessing to the United Front. Should he

be more decisive, then yes, there is the chance of a sudden jhatka

as those angered by this may combine and strike. But that would

be preferable to the slow halal that is draining away the good

name he has accumulated over decades.

Indeed, the odds are the popularity he will get as a result of

sensible policies firmly pursued may shield him from the chop.

More than places of worship or divisive appeals to caste, region

and community, what will work wonders on the electorate is

economic progress. Unless bold steps are taken on infrastructure

and on freeing the economy from the colonial system of over·

regulation, the 9 per cent rate of growth that is needed for

political triumph will not come. Narasimha Rao made huge

fiscal compromises in his final two years. They did not save his

party. On the other hand, bold steps—as he took during his first

two years in office—may have worked.

Rather than be seen as perpetually at the mercy of others, 

I. K. Gujral needs to become his own man, and go about his duties

with a resignation letter in his pocket. That is the best way of

ensuring that it may never be needed.

In his first interview after becoming PM—incidentally to the

present writer—the Prime Minister had spoken of clearing away

the colonial cobwebs that constrain activity and enterprise in

India. So far those have remained just words. Hopefully he will

take heart from President Narayanan’s courage and follow the

Rashtrapati's example of boldly doing what is right, no matter

what the self-seekers say.

Strong action on Bofors, a drive against the mafiosi that .

dominate Mumbai and are now spreading their tentacles to

Bangalore, effective laws and enforcement against the drug

trade, open development of the nuclear deterrent: these are a few

of the measures which alone will give Gujral’s combination a

chance against the BJP.

Apart from the residual mistrust of the minorities towards it,

there is nothing to fault the B]P. Apart from its minority-friendly

image, there is sadly not much that is positive about the

"secular" coalition. And what of Sonia and Sitaram? Put India

before Ego, if you can, and before voters pounce on your party

and demolish it totally. A democratic Congress has the chance

of emerging as one of the poles in a two·party system. A dynastic

or autocratic Congress, never.

An independent East Timor - a promotion of vested interests? (The Straits Times)

Nalapat, M D. New Straits Times; Kuala Lumpur [Kuala Lumpur]11 Sep 1999: 12.

​SINCE Kofi Annan replaced the independent-minded Boutros Boutros Ghali years ago, he has allowed the conversion of the United Nations from a genuinely international organisation into an open facilitator of the colonial-era system of western privilege.

Hence his silence over the continued illegal bombing of Iraq by US-UK jets.

The latest action in support of this humiliating role has been the despatch of an observer mission to East Timor, dominated by the very countries that seek to carve out an independent East Timor merely to satisfy their desire to implant a new Nato base in the Asean region.

Under uncle Kofi and his western masters, the UN has begun the precedent of the former colonial power having the major say in deciding the future of territories.

This fits in with British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook's assertion that as the "former colonial power" the United Kingdom has special responsibilities in the Indian subcontinent.

Thanks to this pandering to the dictates of the former colonial powers, Portugal has superceded Indonesia in confabulations on East Timor.

Indeed, the role of Jakarta under President Habibie, according to the UN, is to supinely accept Nato diktat conveyed through the UN.

Soon, this is likely to include forced assent to armed troops from Nato and its regional surrogates, Australia and New Zealand.

Both are white-dominated countries with immigration policies that seek to preserve western privilege in Asia.

According to UN headquarters, 99.6 per cent of the approximately 800,000 inhabitants of East Timor voted in the referendum.

Previously, the Western media had itself reported that numerous inhabitants of the territory had migrated to regions outside their homes, as well as out of the territory altogether.

Education levels, thanks largely to sustained neglect of the local population by Portugal, is abysmal.

However, the people scattered all across the territory and outside, who had never previously had access to democratic methods, miraculously cast their ballots en masse on Aug 30.

The "results" of the referendum parallel the outcomes of polls in such bastions of democracy as South Korea.

But, if we are to believe the UN and the Western chancelleries, while similar results anywhere else are fraudulent, the East Timor verdict is totally genuine.

Had such a near-complete turnout of the voting population been recorded anywhere else, it would have been derided as fake by the very same Western powers who organised this fraud, in order to promote their perceived strategic interests by carving a Christian-majority country out of a Muslim one.

Logistically, at least a tenth of voters keep away from booths thanks to illness or lassitude, thus leading to a clear presumption of rigging in cases where the voting percentage climbs above an (improbably high) 90 per cent.

In the East Timor case, the 99.6 per cent figure makes it no longer a presumption but a fact.

In India for instance, only in booths known for rigging have voting figures crossed 90 per cent.

East Timor is only the latest example of the penchant of former colonial powers for geopolitical engineering, of which the creation of Pakistan in 1947 was an early example.

Thanks to German pressure to reward its World War II allies, the Croats, Yugoslavia was carved up into a medley of states by 1992.

Had India been as weak as Yugoslavia, by now an "independent" state would have arisen in Kashmir thanks to US-UK pressure for the same that has never wavered since 1948.

Sadly, the Habibie administration allowed itself to be rail-roaded into a referendum organised by the very powers that seek an "independent" East Timor under their grasp.

This will never happen in a Malaysia led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Nato-ordered independence for East Timor may open the gates for similar movements in Aceh, Irian Jaya and other Indonesian provinces.

Extremist tendencies among the Muslim majority can be expected to develop in the face of the vivisection of the archipelago-state, and this could lead to an independence movement in Bali, a Hindu-majority province that is a symbol of Indonesia's religious tolerance.

Altogether, there is a high prospect of Indonesia unravelling as a consequence of a Timor surrender.

Ironically, this will impact negatively on the Nato powers themselves, by creating instability and chaos not just in Indonesia, but in nearby countries.

It will lead to Australia playing a colonising role by sending in troops into the region, in an effort to protect the white-dominated Nato alliance from a self-generated quagmire.

A moderate Indonesia is worth much more to the basic interests of the US-EU combine than any likely benefit from a protectorate, headquartered at Dili.

However, try telling that to Nato's geopolitical cowboys, especially an Australia raring to re-establish European-race dominance in the Asean region on the back of Nato.

The only hope now is that the armed forces and the business community in Indonesia will respect the verdict of the Indonesian people and anoint Megawati Sukarnoputri as the next President of Indonesia.

The PDI-P chief has already hinted she will not allow an independent East Timor, only an autonomous province that retains its cultural distinctiveness while posing no danger to her country's stability.

If she gets sworn in and is able to implement her policy, Indonesia may yet be saved from the chaos planned for it by the neo-colonisers in Nato.