Congress has Two Conflicting Strategies to Regain Power

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

The discussion on the extent to which the Congress should exert

pressure on the United Front (UF) to get its support for a

Mayawati-led ministry in Uttar Pradesh gives an indication of

the emergence of two contrary strategies that the Congress could

follow.

While both have adherents and critics among the office-

bearers of the former ruling party, the terms "Pawar" and

"Antony" lines will be used to denote the two approaches, as the

two have emerged as protagonists of the same.

While both sides have thus far refrained from publicly

articulating their strategies and have indeed denied that there

are any differences, discussions with confidants indicate that the

Pawar line is to forge a formal alliance with the UF in order to

isolate the BJP. This would involve joining the UF ministry at the

Centre and joint action in states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat

and elsewhere. Gradually, thanks to the force of numbers and

greater cohesion, the Congress would dominate the UF and in

time would have its own candidate as Prime Minister. Thereafter,

a Congress-led UF would face and defeat the BJP in the subsequent

Lok Sabha polls.

The Antony line would support the UF at the Centre for a

period of two to three years, during which time the Congress

would be revamped into an organisation based on inner-party

democracy and an elected set of office-bearers. The strategy

would be "unity" with the UF in Delhi and "struggle" in the

states, where the Congress would shed its current inhibitions

and become a vociferous opposition to both the UF as well as the

BJP. In certain states local alliances would be forged, such as with

the BSP in UP and Ramakrishna Hegde in Karnataka. By these

means, the Antony strategists hope to have the Congress re-

emerge into health within 24 to 36 months, after which it would

force a Lok Sabha election.

While the Pawar line predicates cooperation with the UF, the

Antony line calls for the Congress to fashion its revival

independent of it. According to Antony, it is necessary for the

party to be away from power for a few years, "to rid itself of the

corruption associated with office". Should the Congress join the

UF, the temptation to revert to old ways would be great, and the

party would share in the scandals and disillusionment caused by

UF rule. Away from power, a fresh team of office-bearers can be

expected to emerge, with the state-level units—rather than the

AICC—being the focus of the leadership's attention.

The proponents of the Antony line have welcomed the

emergence of Sitaram Kesri as AICC president, as the Bihar

politician fits in with its strategy of focusing on dalits, the

minorities and the backward communities. According to the

Kerala politician, an alliance with the BSP will send positive

signals to the dalit vote-banks in the Hindi belt. Next would be

moves to woo the minorities and the backward communities.

Those in favour of the Pawar line give more attention to

government, and to using the advantages of office to generate

visibility and support among the electorate, Hence the eagerness

to join the Gowda government.

The advantage in this behind-the-scenes battle of wills lies

with the Maharashtra politician. Antony has ever exhibited a

reluctance not to go for the jugular, but to even get involved in

battle. Thus, very often his positions are lost almost by default.

Pawar on the other hand, has excellent powers of persuasion that

are put to good use in generating support for his stand. At

present, apart from his closeness to both Prime Minister Deve

Gowda and Congress icon Sonia Gandhi, Pawar has the support

of three CWC members, K. Karunakaran, Ghulam Nabi Azad

and Balram Jakhar. Rajesh Pilot, Ahmed Patel and Meira Kumar

have also given him qualified support, especially on the policy

of backing the UF.

Antony, on the other hand, has only himself as a firm backer

in the CWC.

However, if the attention shifts from the Delhi-based office-

bearers to the states, the Kerala politician has a significant

support base for his "unity and struggle" policy vis-a-vis the UF.

In particular, state units in the south and east are opposed to the

policy of going soft on the UF. In these states, the Congress has

begun to pay heavily for the ambiguity in its stand vis-a-vis local

UF rivals such as the Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh the JD

in Karnataka and the CPM in Kerala. Over the next few months,

such state units may begin to exert pressure to prevent the

adoption of the Pawar line.

And what of the former Prime Minister, P.V. Narasimha

Rao? Despite his distaste for Pawar, Rao has become compelled

by circumstances to adopt a dovish posture towards the UF,

which is dangling the threat of putting him or his son in prison

without actually expending the missile by actually doing so. As

long as the threat is present or remains unexecuted — Rao will

be forced to support a conciliatory line towards the very same

UF that is closing in on his followers through the CBI. While Rao

loyalists are being targeted, pro-UF Congressmen as well as UF

politicians are being spared CBI attention, despite their

involvement in numerous scams.

The UP imbroglio has shown up the fault lines behind the

facade of Congress-UF cooperation. The months ahead will show

whether the former ruling party will hitch its fate to the UF or

attempt to once again recapture the dominant heights of Indian

polity. At present, the odds favour the former outcome.