It is likely that establishing a close
bond between the incoming President of the US and the Prime Minister of
India will be a priority for both Joe Biden and Narendra Modi.
New Delhi: The “Namaste Trump” mela in Ahmedabad
this year and earlier, the 2019 “Howdy Modi” hoopla in Houston, have
been lampooned by many as sideshows. Such a view ignores the symbolism
of both across the world. India has an economy far smaller than that of
the United States (almost by ten times), and yet as the two leaders
marched arm in arm across the stadium on both occasions, it was
perceived by tens of millions of viewers that the Trump administration
had finally accepted India as an equal, just as President Richard Nixon
did with the People’s Republic of China in the 1970s. Nixon’s deft
diplomacy created the defining alliance of the US during Cold War 1.0.
This was not with the other members of NATO but with Beijing, and there
grew an often understated, often covert, link between that capital and
Washington. Similarly, the most consequential partnership between
Washington and any other capital during Cold War 2.0 will be—as was
acknowledged by then National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster in
2018—with Delhi. There has been much quibbling over whether what is
taking place between the PRC and the US is indeed a “Cold War”. Those
reluctant to admit that their serial predictions of the PRC turning
democratic with economic success have doubled down on the strategy of
engaging rather than confronting China. Such elements have long been
part of the Biden policy ecosystem, hence the optimism in Beijing that
spring is approaching after a Trumpian winter. The sizeable “Engage,
don’t confront PRC” lobby in Washington has pointed out correctly that
both sides seek to avoid a direct conflict but are silent about the fact
that wars are not always started by design. A “Cold War” is not the
opposite of a “hot” or kinetic war, but describes a situation wherein
one superpower is seeking to wrest global leadership from the other by
whatever means is available, and the other is seeking to repress its
capabilities for doing so. Such a contest may be “hot” in some locations
while remaining “cold” in others.
There has been a perception among policymakers, especially in Asia,
that a Biden administration would return to the G-2 model favoured by
Beijing (until it establishes a clear lead over the US). US tech
companies, unhappy at having to decouple from their PRC partners and
suppliers, have lavished money on the Democratic Party presidential
campaign in the expectation that the decoupling from PRC-controlled
supply chains that began in the final year of the Obama administration
and was continued with more vigour under Donald J. Trump, will get
reversed. They are likely to be disappointed, as PRC progress in
Artificial Intelligence and in space and missile technology has begun to
pose an existential threat to US military assets. As President of the
US, Joe Biden will have access to data that show how the PRC has, for at
least a decade, been working to separate its own tech supply chains
from the US, and how it being the dominant component of so many US
supply chains is assisting such a process. Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala
Harris can be accused with accuracy of being “soft” on the PRC, unlike
what has been alleged against them by the Republicans. Judging by some
of the new entrants in the advisory councils of both, it is clear that
both have transitioned from the Altanticist obsession of the Clintons to
the Indo-Pacific pivot initiated by President Barack Obama, with the
assistance of two outstanding intellects, Susan Rice and Ashton Carter.
However, President Obama was cautious to a fault in many ways, and
standing up to China was included in that list. ASEAN countries factored
in with dismay the non-response of the Obama administration when the
Scarborough Shoals were taken over by the PRC from the Philippines in
2012 despite an agreement with Manila not to do so. The Pentagon’s
policy has been the undertaking of symbolic passages by naval vessels
through the South China Sea. Instead, what is needed (in conjunction
with other powers) is to recover primacy over that crucial waterway
through reversing the steady militarization of the South China Sea that
has taken place under General Secretary Xi Jinping. This
transformational leader has from the start of his rule in 2012 placed
the PLA at the hub of diplomacy and strategy. The geographical activism
that has taken place under Xi since 2012 resembles the manner in which
there was accretion of territory by Chairman Mao, only this time mostly
on water rather than land. What may be termed as neo-socialist (or
neosoc) PRC analysts (who are as fixated on the expansion of Beijing’s
power as the neo-conservatives or neocons were in the US were about
boosting that of Washington) are gaining influence within the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP). It is this group that is pushing for an
aggressive PRC policy towards India. Their line has been adopted by the
Central Military Commission (CMC) in the expectation that the effect of
the Covid-19 pandemic on India has given an opportunity for the PLA to
knock out any chances of Delhi emerging as a credible challenger to the
PRC. Once humiliating blows were landed, India would (in their view)
lose its attraction as a potential ally to the US, and would itself
begin a process of internal turmoil and eventual meltdown. This would in
line with the objectives of GHQ Rawalpindi, a PLA ally. Simultaneously,
the influence of Russia besides the PRC’s own lobby within India would
prevent the Narendra Modi government from going ahead with an Indo-US
partnership, on the specious ground that by doing so, the “independence”
and “strategic autonomy” of India would be compromised. Both are indeed
being sought to be compromised, not by those in favour of a defence and
security alignment with the US, but because of the activities of the
PLA and GHQ Rawalpindi. Both are working in tandem where India is
concerned. PRC “neosoc” (neo-socialist) analysts expect the Biden
administration to seek a return to the G-2 model in Asia. Should they be
correct, US credibility as a security partner for Southeast Asia would
fall to depths not seen since the 1930s.
AGGRESIVE NEO-SOCIALISTS
The nationalistic (or in their words, patriotic) neosoc analysts in
China believe that the Biden administration will move away from the
Indo-Pacific strategy fashioned during the Trump presidency. This would
be at the precise time when the Quad needs to expand its potentiality
through the association of Vietnam and Indonesia. The latter country
contains the only waterway through which nuclear submarines can transit
from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, besides having the largest Muslim
population in the world, followed by Pakistan and India. There was a
similar burst of optimism in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) think-tanks
when Donald Trump was sworn in on 20 January 2017. The 45th President of
the US was after all a businessman, and the CCP has been expert in the
handling of business entities, which is why to this day, Big Tech in the
US remains hostile to the Pompeo-Esper hard line on China. They would
prefer that Huawei and other PRC entities continue to service their
needs, even if in the process US tech giants are themselves are at risk
of getting overtaken in global markets by business champions nurtured by
the CCP. The declaration of President Trump’s 2017 trade war with China
was regarded by them as simply a negotiating tactic to get more
concessions. It was only after several months that the “neosocs”
understood that at least under Trump the era of the US facilitating the
expansion of PRC businesses and markets was over. Given the fact that
not only Republicans but Democrats share apprehensions about the
direction the PRC is taking, it is unlikely that even the many
Atlanticists in a Biden administration would be able to resist the
growing number of voices within the Pentagon, the National Security
Council and even the State Department that regard the Indo-Pacific
rather than the Atlantic as the centre of gravity in global geopolitics.
Such a pivot implies that it is the PRC that is the principal foe, and
no longer Russia, which under Vladimir Putin has now moved into the role
of being an indispensable (and therefore quasi-equal) partner of the
PRC. The Sino-Russian alliance is a formidable construct that has the
potential to establish a unipolar Asia before moving on to the creation
of a unipolar world. At the same time, as Beijing establishes itself as
the dominant power in Asia, Moscow would once again expand its footprint
in Europe, especially in those European states that were once part of
COMECON. Should an Indo-US security and defence partnership become
operational, this would pose a significant obstacle to such plans, which
is why both Moscow and Beijing (not to mention Islamabad) are opposed
to the idea of a US-India partnership. The signing of the final
foundation agreement (BECA) between the US and India has shown that the
influence of Moscow on decisions in Delhi is finally declining. It is a
sign of the influence of Moscow within the Ministry of Defence that when
the PLA intruded yet again (and in a strength not seen since 1962) into
Indian territory in May, rather than purchase US weapons platforms,
once again bulk orders were placed with Moscow. These were of items with
which the PLA is very familiar. It was when US equipment made a
substantial difference to the fighting capabilities of the Army and the
Air Force in their recent confronting of the PLA challenge that the
importance of turning to a rival rather than to an ally of China for
crucial military supplies became more apparent within the Lutyens Zone.
Despite not having met or even talked to Candidate Trump until he became
President Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick off the mark in
establishing as close a relationship with the 45th President of the US
as he was with Barack Obama. It is likely that establishing a close bond
between the incoming President of the US and the Prime Minister of
India will be a priority for both Biden as well as Modi. Such closeness
will be opposed in India by those political parties who remain as wedded
to the USSR-US Cold war 1.0 strategies as hardcore Atlanticists in the
US cling on to illusions that the realities that took shape after the
1939-45 war have not been overtaken by the emergence of the Indo-Pacific
century, or that it is no longer Moscow but Beijing that is the primary
challenge to Washington.
The Democratic Party has been unlucky in the loss while in office of
Franklin Delano Roosevelt and John Fitzgerald Kennedy. Both understood
the importance of the change that was accelerating in Asia and Africa.
Had Roosevelt been in office for the whole of his final term, many of
the wars and miscalculations that followed would have been avoided. Had
Kennedy lived to win a second term, the India-US relationship would have
blossomed into a partnership. President Clinton had no time for India
except in the matter of demolishing its nuclear and missile deterrent
against the PRC, which he indulged in terms of policy even while
objecting to some of its actions in words. Even in his last-minute visit
to India, President Clinton made sure to visit Pakistan as well,
thereby underlining the hyphenation of the two countries that was a
staple of US foreign policy from the time of President Eisenhower. It
took President George W. Bush to accept the reality of India as a
responsible nuclear weapons state, and also to open the door to the
world’s largest democracy becoming the manufactory of 90% of the
life-preserving drugs that ensured that HIV (AIDS) ceased to be a death
sentence for the poor across the globe. The incoming US President needs
to similarly turn to India if he is to ensure that the poor in his
country get affordable access to the medications needed to mitigate the
effects of Covid-19. This would be still more relevant in a situation
where a vaccine remains distant. The Clinton, Obama and Trump
administrations took the side of Big Pharma against their own poor and
their own budgets, working overtime to shut the door on cheaper generics
from India. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would be welcomed
by Big Pharma as a well-paid lobbyist, so relentless has been his
effort to get India to change its laws and practices so as to weaken its
generics industry and to ensure that patents for Big Pharma drugs get
indefinitely extended through legerdemain rather than any genuine change
in the effectiveness of the high-priced medication whose patent is
getting extended. Someday, the human rights lobby will become active in
the matter of the tens of millions of poor who have died or suffered
agony because access to low-cost and equally effective medications from
India was blocked by their lobbying.
FORMING A TECHNO TRIANGLE
The US, India, Japan and Australia have formed the Indo-Pacific
Quadrilateral Alliance, and this is a legacy that the 46th President of
the US is likely to not just continue with, but strengthen. Contrary to
the dissemination of perceptions that he is an apologist for the PRC,
Joe Biden is known to be focused on the US interest. In such a context,
the chances are high that the signing of the defence and security
Foundation Agreements (one under Barack Obama and two under Donald
Trump, all cleared during the period in office of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi) will clear the way for major defence manufacturers in the
US to set up segments of their production facilities in India, so that
they can more effectively compete in costs with the competition that
will soon come their way from the Sino-Russian alliance. Care needs to
be taken by the Government of India to ensure that 100% ownership be
permitted in defence rather than 75%. There is no reason why India
should not permit full ownership for entities in partner countries in
the defence production sector, especially in a situation where nearly
80% of core defence equipment is sourced from outside the country. Care
needs to be taken to ensure that only companies that are based in
friendly countries are allowed to enter into production, while those
from countries with which there are tensions which could escalate, need
to be kept out, as also those from countries that have a close military
and security relationship with foes of India. A similar welcome can be
extended to US tech companies so that they source production not in the
PRC but in the other country with a billion-plus population, India. The
obsession of then Vice-President Dick Cheney with the domestic sourcing
of items needed in the wars he helped begin together with President
George W. Bush pushed up costs and was among the reasons why the economy
of the country tanked during the final year (2008) of the 43rd
President of the US. Value addition by the US to a proportion of
components made elsewhere makes more sense than seeking to source the
entire downstream production of items in the US in the manner that
President Trump frequently announces as his goal. A possible winner
would be the setting up of a Techno Triangle involving the US, India and
Taiwan. This could evolve into a significant partnership in a context
in which tech companies from both the US as well as Taiwan have begun a
process of decoupling from the PRC. Tweaks in policy, such as permitting
higher-level visits between Taipei and Delhi, would facilitate the
process of relocation of Taiwanese manufacturing and other supply chains
from the PRC to India. Just as there were advantages to locating
production facilities in the PRC during 1981-96, there are significant
advantages to locating in India. This would especially be the case once
Prime Minister Modi goes ahead with simplifying and compressing
administrative procedures and making them more transparent. Much has
been achieved in this direction during the Covid-19 pandemic, but
several more reforms need to follow to ensure that India becomes a
global manufacturing hub in the manner that the PRC became during the
years when Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping was leading that country.
INDIA’S DAUGHTER
Incoming Vice-President of the United States, Kamala Devi Harris, was
brought up by her mother, who had deep roots in India. She is no Bobby
Jindal, seeking to cover up both ethnicity and identity. Her
Vice-Presidential visit to Tamil Nadu via Delhi will be an event that
will generate a festive atmosphere in that state. Both she as well as
her husband Doug and her “manas putri” Ella and “manas putra” Cole would
love such a visit to the country that Kamala’s mother called home.
There have been posters in Tamil Nadu celebrating the California
politician’s ascent in politics and prayers in multiple locations were
held for her success in the 3 November polls, which seem to have been
answered. Coming from a state where Indian-Americans are ubiquitous, it
is surprising to come across numerous social media posts asserting the
proposition that the first term Senator did not identify with the
country from where her mother hailed from. Kamala Harris also has roots
in Jamaica, a country that has some of the friendliest people on the
planet, but overall she is—like other citizens in her country of
multiple ethnicities—quintessentially from the country where she was
born in and which she has from her childhood considered as home. A
country that has elected her as the fist woman Vice-President of the US,
and the first non-white to hold that post. A country that is finally
moving towards a partnership with India, a bonding that ought to have
taken place decades ago but somehow eluded policymakers on both sides,
although the people of both countries have formed a dense network of
relationships, including in business, health and education. Just as Mike
Pence has been an effective second-in-command to President Trump, so
will be Vice-President Kamala Harris to President Joe Biden. Even after
they step down, Donald Trump and Mike Pence will be welcome in India
anytime. Pence, in particular, has distinguished himself through a clear
view on global geopolitics that understands the stark reality of the
situation that is confronting the US in the shape of Cold War 2.0.
Just as President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill signed the
Atlantic Charter, the need has arrived for President Biden and Prime
Minister Modi to sign the Indo-Pacific Charter. This would enshrine the
centrality of preventing aggression by predatory powers in the
Indo-Pacific, and serve as a framework for cooperation on the basis of
agreed principles. It would energize and give heart to ASEAN and further
stabilize South Asia minus a particular country that its military has
tethered to the PLA. Donald Trump has been a success where India-US ties
are concerned. President Barack Obama established a legacy of trust
together with PM Modi. This has been carried forward in a robust manner
by his successor Donald Trump, unlike almost all the other signature
policies of the 44rth President of the US. Rather than result in a
rollback, the odds are that the period in office of the incoming
President and Vice-President of the US will ensure an even closer
partnership between the two biggest democracies. Such a pairing is
essential in an era when the values both believe in are under threat.
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/india-us-bonhomie-will-continue-biden-harris