Congress Revival: Will Sonia Show a Constructive Spirit

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)

Rather than just Rajghat, Atal Behari Vajpayee needs to make a

pilgrimage to the homes of Harkishen Singh Surjeet and

Viswanath Pratap Singh, for it is these two who triggered the

events that brought about his ascension. The roots of the 1998

polls do not lie in the ruckus over the Jain Commission, but go

further back, to the United Front's surrender before Sitaram

Kesri in April 1997. Had they refused the demand to sack

H. D. Deve Gowda as Prime Minister, Sitaram Kesri’s bluff

would have been called, and he would have faced a revolt by

Congress MPs eager to avoid a fresh poll. Instead, Surjeet and

Singh teamed up with Kesri against Gowda.

Even if they wanted to replace Gowda—whom V. P. Singh

saw as a friend of Chandra Shekhar - the duo could have

selected the one individual within the United Front whom Kesri

was afraid of. This was G. K. Moopanar, whose links within the

Congress are far more than Kesri’s, and who enjoys the confidence

of Sonia Gandhi. Had Moopanar replaced Gowda, he would

have had the clout to prevent a second withdrawal of support by

the Congress party. However, helped by M. Karunanidhi (who

did not fancy a fellow-Tamil moving into 7, Race Course Road

and thereby overshadowing him), V. P. Singh and H. S. Surjeet

sabotaged Moopanar and zeroed in on close friend I. K. Gujral.

Gujral repeated Gowda’s mistake, by pinning the entire

superstructure of Congress support on his relationship with one

individual. While Gowda relied on Narasimha Rao (and to an

extent Sharad Pawar and Rajesh Pilot) to keep the Congress in

line, the new Prime Minister spent considerable effort cultivating

Kesri. By September 1997, the time when the Sonia group

effectively began to dominate the AICC, both Kesri’s and Gujral’s

days in office were numbered. Two months later, the Jain

Commission interim report was deliberately leaked to force the

United Front to accommodate the Congress in its ministry. This

time around there was a no compromise. The TDP, DMK, AGP

and the CPM saw to that. While the first three have been

rewarded for this stand by being mauled by the electorate, the

CPM has slid from being the pivot of the old government to

being one of the primary targets of the new one.

It was Narasimha Rao who selected Kesri as AICC President,

preferring him over A. K. Antony. That decision cost him his

relevance in politics. Rao chose Kesri on the advice of Sharad

Pawar, Ghulam Nabi Azad and litendra Prasad. Certainly, the

fact that Kesri would be a much less attractive candidate for the v

Prime Ministership than Antony, should there be a chance for

Congress to lead the government, may have crossed their

ambitious minds. Another factor that weighed with Rao was

Kesri’s habit of stretching his arms towards the former Prime

Minister's feet. Minutes after he took over as AICC President,

Kesri began aiming not his arm but a leg at Rao.

Sonia Gandhi’s hard core followers, including Shiela Dixit

and Arjun Singh, convinced her that the Indian voters were

waiting for her debut to — in V. N. Gadgil’s words — "sweep" the

party back to power. However, the 1998 poll results are not very

supportive of this optimism, with the party's vote share falling

from 29 per cent in 1996 under the despised Narasimha Rao to

25 per cent today. However, this has been explained by two

factors: the continuance of Sitaram Kesri as AICC President,

which was held to have muffled the "Sonia effect", and second,

that if Sonia had not launched her campaign, the Congress vote

would have slid from 29 per cent to 10 per cent. In this view,

Sonia prevented the total obliteration of the Congress party.

Now that Sitaram Kesri has been turfed out of the AICC

Presidentship, the "muffling" of the Sonia magic will presumably

no longer take place.

In her campaign, Sonia Gandhi has shown herself to be tough

and professional, two qualities essential for success. Her mother-

in»law was tough but seldom professional, while her husband

was rarely either. Thus Sonia Gandhi has at least as good a

probability as they had of holding her own, especially in a

country with a tolerant tradition. Her problems are likely to flow

not just from her enemies but her friends. Between 1981 and

1983, Rajiv tried to break away from his mother's acolytes and I

encourage a new team. By 1984 — despite the brave speech at

Bombay later — he had given up this process, and from then

onwards confined his reshuffles to the same jaded group of

Nehru family loyalists. The odds are low that Sonia Gandhi will 1

jettison the "loya1ists” who have been so carefully nurtured by

Indira Gandhi and subsequently by Rajiv. However, unless she

does so, the Congress organisation is unlikely to recover from its

present descent into irrelevance.

The paradox is that Sonia Gandhi will need to jettison the

methods of Indira and Rajiv in order to nurse the Congress back

to health. Free party elections will need to be held, and the l

accumulations of office—seekers that are clogging the route for

grassroots workers need to get cleansed away. This the "loyalists"

will resist, as few have base-level support. Secondly, if she is to

arrest the decline in the party’s vote share, there will need to be

a mix of carefully crafted policies that can appeal not just to 

particular communities but to citizens across religious and caste

divides. Such policies will go against the personal interests of

those who are today enjoying top—level posts in the Congress.

Equally importantly, Sonia Gandhi will need to distance

herself from the strategies of her hardline followers, and avoid

a path of all—out confrontation with the BJP-led government. On l

critical issues such as the passage of the Budget or other

necessary legislation, the Congress should not be seen as an

obstructive force. Should legislative paralysis ensue thanks to

the "Shouting Brigade", a fresh election could result in the B]P

alliance crossing 300 seats. On key economic, social and security

matters, the Congress will need to convince the voters that it can

take a nationalist view rather than be the prisoner of narrow

interests. Should the Congress continue to decline, the next

election is likely to see a 1950-1971 situation, in which there is

just one dominant party and a cluster of smaller players. This

time around that dominant party is likely to be the BJP.