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Sunday, 18 August 2013

Submarine fire may have been sabotage (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT  Mumbai | 17th Aug 2013
Indian Submarine INS Sindhurakshak
ntelligence professionals believe that the 14 August explosions which destroyed INS Sindhurakshak could have been caused by sabotage. They fault the Indian Navy for consistently refusing to credit negative reports about its own men, as recently evidenced in the treatment meted out to a female whistle-blower, who complained of improper behaviour on the part of a group of officers, but was soon jailed on unrelated charges. They see parallels with the frequent crashes of IAF fighter aircraft, some of which, a top intelligence professional warns, "may have come about because of deliberate sabotage during routine maintenance operations", a possibility that "has never been seriously considered". He pointed out that background checks on armed forces staff involved in sensitive duties was "a joke", and that "even matters of extreme relevance such as surfing habits on the internet were not ordinarily scanned". Nor "were offbase contacts with suspicious individuals", with "activities of staff while on leave or during their free time being almost completely missing from the radar". Others added that hostile intelligence services as well as non-state players "had the money needed to win over possible mercenaries willing to carry out sabotage".
Officers familiar with the Mumbai docks near the Reserve Bank of India claim that security is less than impressive, and that oftentimes the gates are guarded by "police personnel or retired servicemen armed with primitive weapons", including rifles "whose design dates back to World War II". An officer warned that "if Kasab and his mates had hit the Naval yards rather than fancy hotels, the consequences may have been catastrophic for the service". He claimed that "it would take more than 20 minutes for fully-equipped reinforcements to come to the yard, and during that time, a lot of damage can be done". Certainly the few lightly-armed guards at Lion's Gate (the entrance to the Mumbai naval yard) look inadequate.
Although Defence Minister A.K. Antony has ruled out sabotage, terming the explosion as a tragic accident, intelligence professionals set out scenarios in contrast to the "Act of God" line taken by the minister. Officers claim that India's submarine fleet, including those berthed in Mumbai, lack the "deepwater submarine pens" used by their counterparts in the United States or China, having to do with shallow waters where "they cannot hide from eyes in the sky". According to a senior professional, it would be easy for a trained person to ride an underwater "chariot" (essentially a torpedo-like vehicle atop which a man can ride through the water). Should this person have a modern diving suit, then "there would not even be telltale bubbles rising to the surface of the water to warn of his presence". However, others discount the theory of an explosive being placed on the submarine's hull from the outside, by pointing out that two more submarines were berthed side by side the stricken vessel and that "a saboteur could have placed such explosives on the sides of all three rather than on just one". However, they concede that "placing explosives at specific points" on the external skin of the submarine would "trigger subsequent explosions of ordinance" stored within the vessel.
They discounted the theory of a hydrogen leak, pointing out that the Sindhurakshak's batteries were charged a full three days before the explosions. More likely, in their view, was a "deliberate attempt to trigger an explosion through an inside job". Given the reluctance of the Ministry of Defence to examine the probability that the initial explosion was an act of sabotage, these intelligence professionals say that "the truth will get buried at sea rather than surface", the way other such enquiries into similar military mishaps have in the past, including in the other service arms.

Friday, 16 August 2013

Zero accountability is India’s norm (PO)

M.D. Nalapat
Friday, August 16, 2013 - Months ago, a suspected total of more than 30,000 innocents lost their lives in the hilly state of Uttarakhand because of weather turning deadly. While nature cannot be controlled by mere humanity, the fact is that several improper decisions contributed to the high toll, including the construction of houses along the ridge line of mountains and a complete disregard of safety norms while permitting pilgrims to visit the holy places in the state. Which official, political or bureaucratic, has paid any price for this appalling tragedy? Zero.

A while after the Uttarakhand tragedy, schoolchildren in Bihar fell ill while taking their midday meals, apparently because the food items had been stored in a can that once stocked phosphoric fertilizer. While the school principal has been jailed, he is likely to escape very soon because of “lack of evidence” that he had any direct knowledge or involvement in the crime. Once the children began to fall sick in class, hours went by before proper medical care was provided to them. As a result, there are several deaths. Who had paid the price for being responsible for such delays? No one. Once again, the Zero Accountability culture in India has ensured that the guilty escape, to continue with their depredations.

Given the hierarchical nature of administration in India, decisions which ought to be taken at much lower levels often need sanction from high up the chain of command. However, when “accidents” take place (the favourite description for man-made disasters), it is almost always those who are junior who get the blame. This happens even in the Indian military, which as an institution is still far superior to its civilian counterparts in efficiency and training. In 1999,the higher command of the Indian army was on a junket to foreign shores or playing golf when the Kargil heights got occupied. Heads needed to roll at Army HQ for the lapse, especially in Intelligence. However, all that took place was that a Brigadier (who in fact had watned higher-ups about the intrusion and had attempted futilely to get them to sanction counter-measures) was made the scapegoat and proceeded against. Since 1999,the habit of top brass of pinning the blame for their own lapses on lower levels has grown, so much so that a tendency has developed for orders to be given orally, so that there is no record of their being made. Those lower down who obey such orders run the risk of being pulled up by the very seniors who gave the commands, should the results of the orders given turn out to be wrong.

On August 14 in the early hours of the morning, television screens across India got filled with reports of a huge blaze in the naval dockyard at Mumbai. A Kilo-class submarine had caught fire for unexplained reasons, and eighteen sailors paid the ultimate price, valiant men each of them. The INS Sindhurakshak was the second naval vessel to be destroyed in post-independence India, the first being a small frigate that was brought down by a Pakistani submarine in 1971. How did a submarine that had just days previously undergone an expensive refit at a Russian naval yard explode? In line with the culture of Zero Accountabilty, the Chief of Naval Staff almost immediately gave a clean chit to naval personnel, saying that sabotage was “unlikely” and describing the event as an “accident”.

The Defense Minister, who is versatile enough to be a follower of the competing ideologies of Mahatma Gandhi and Indira Gandhi, saw it as a tragedy, which of course it was. However, where A K Antony went wrong was that the destruction of the Sindhurakshak was much more than a tragdy. It was a crime. Either those who certified that the vessel was seaworthy when they inspected it at the Russian yard were wrong, or else some event took place that rendered null the numerous safety procedures on board such a craft. The navy, in common with other services, refuses to countenance the possibilility that some of its own people may have turned rogue and indulged in sabotage. In 1997 and again in 2003,this columnist spoke to air force personnel about the frequent crashes of fighter aircraft, and they said that there were grounds for asserting that some of the maintenance work done on the aircraft was ‘suspicious’. However, no sustained investigation has been carried out of this factor in crashes of fighter aircraft.

It is ridiculous to assert that it was a “hydrogen leak” in the batteries which caused the explosion because the submarine’s batteries were charged three days before August 14,so that if there had to be a problem, it would have been clear by then. The more likely explanation is that an explosive charge was placed inside the submarine with a timer device. Given the culture of trust within the armed forces, security precautions for comrades in uniform are much less rigid than for outsiders, and a rogue officer could well have done the sabotage for monetary gain or for some other cause. Certainly an explosive charge could have been placed outside, such as a kimpet mine, but if so, why were such charges not placed on the other two submarines near the stricken ship? In armies across the world, including in the US and Pakistan, there have been unveilings of rogue elements. In India, such a possibility is discounted from the start, as was done just a day ago by the Indian Navy chief. Just a handful of bad apples can poison the basket, and a search needs to be made to see if such elements are present, before more harm gets done.

There have been too many “accidents” in the three services, and it is time that accountability followed. The culture in India of Zero. Accountability has to change.


http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=215533

Sunday, 11 August 2013

India’s ‘craze for foreign’ must end (Sunday Guardian)

Raghuram Rajan is greeted at his office in New Delhi after he was appointed as the next governor of the RBI on Tuesday. PTI
t would take extreme effort for Raghuram Rajan to do a worse job of ensuring economic growth than his immediate predecessor Duvvuri Subbarao, who will leave behind a banking and industrial wasteland by the time his extended term concludes in a few weeks' time. Given that he has been a loyal chela of the economic adviser to the Prime Minister, C. Rangarajan, it would be understandable if he were to expect to be given the Padma Vibhushan at the next investiture ceremony. Odder choices have been known to occur, no doubt inspired by the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Henry Kissinger or the European Union. More apt than simply a national award would be the gifting of a ministerial-level commission chairmanship to Subbarao. This body could be given the task of boosting economic growth in India. Given the skill of Subbarao in ensuring the opposite, all that would be needed to speed up growth in the country would be to implement the polar opposite of the committee's recommendations.
Except to the "experts" at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and at the Ministry of Finance, there is no mystery about why the Indian rupee has been diving in recent months. All that the mandarins have to do is to go to — for example — Singapore and get hold of some of the brochures being put out by banks there to attract NRI dollar deposits. These explicitly promise an annual return of about 20% in dollars for any money invested. Indeed, it would make sense for an NRI to take a loan from a Singapore bank and place the loan as an NRI deposit, taking advantage of the more than 5% spread between the cost of the loan and the interest on the deposit.
The (already high) assured return of 20% is subject to the rupee falling to about Rs 72 to the US dollar, but the more adventurous investors can get a higher return by accepting a higher risk. The number of "get rich quick" NRI deposit schemes based on the absurdly generous incentives given by the Manmohan Singh government to such investors has multiplied, with banks advertising such offers and even provoking lawsuits on the part of those angry at being denied access to the India Gravy Train because they are not NRIs. However, despite the several heady mentions given to individuals such as Raghuram Rajan (who, thus far, has been conspicuous only in being part of a team that has crash-landed a once soaring economy), the geniuses in Mint Road and North Block seem unable to comprehend the correlation between the high returns given to those making dollar deposits in Indian banks and the fall of the rupee.
Any hawala operator can tell them how those holding huge hoards of cash — mostly politicians and officials — are flocking to hawala operators in order to exchange their hoards into dollars. This is then sent to destinations such as Singapore or Dubai, where otherwise unemployed relatives are packed off as NRIs. These are then supplied with dollars which can be placed in NRI deposits, although in many cases, these big depositors have no known source of income except remittances from mysterious channels. It has become such a nightmare to operate in India, and so easy to make money out of the system if one is an NRI, that there has been a huge increase in this category, several of whom have made large NRI deposits to get the massive dollar denominated returns that such deposits bring. This is in contrast to the domestic investor, who gets a pittance, that too in a depreciating rupee that is plunging towards the Rs 100 to a US dollar mark, thanks to the PM's hand-picked economic team.
It is this legal and illegal conversion of rupees into dollars that is the primary cause of the falling value of the rupee, not the esoteric reasons being trotted out by a section of pink press commentators who are PROs for the IMF and the World Bank. Unless this unhealthy concentration of effort on getting short-term funds through the NRI route get replaced with schemes for an amnesty for foreign funds held abroad and investment in physical assets rather than in hot money destinations. Raghuram Rajan, with his attention fixed to the needs of those influential in Chicago rather than Kolkata, is unlikely to make a positive difference to an economy which has been almost destroyed thanks to giving foreign money and foreign capital way, way more value than the rupee and domestic investors. Hopefully, this "Craze for Foreign" (as V.S. Naipaul once put it) of the Indian policymaker will cease before the streets of India erupt in fury.






PMO to blame for soldier deaths’ (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT  New Delhi | 10th Aug 2013
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
enior commanders in the India-Pakistan battlefield say that the rules of engagement enforced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are the cause of the multiplying number of deaths of Indian soldiers at the hands of the Pakistan army. According to them, present Chief of Army Staff General Bikram Singh "follows the PMO's directives in practice while publicly talking about a tough response" to Pakistani provocations, They claim that "cross-border incidents on both the Line of Control and the Line of Actual Control have risen sharply since June 2012" when Gen Singh took over the command of the Army from Gen V.K. Singh. However, a senior officer said that the dilution in response over the past year "is not the (present) chief's fault", and that Gen Bikram Singh had no option as a disciplined soldier than to follow the policy given to him by the political and bureaucratic leadership.
They pointed out that those commanders who adopted a "pro-active stance that would deter the Pakistanis usually suffered in their careers" while the "more cautious ones got promoted". They said that this was in contrast to the Pakistan army, "which always backed the man on the spot, even if he was only a JCO (junior commissioned officer)". Others said that "these days, babus in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) take even tactical decisions best left to the field commanders" and that "interference by the MoD in operational matters has reached the danger level" from the point of view of operational readiness to deal with threats.
These commanders say that Pakistani troops "taunt our forces every day" by saying that it is "Dilli ka hukam" that our soldiers do not respond to provocations from their side. A senior officer claimed that "almost every day, in some sectors, Pakistani troops open up an artillery barrage". He claimed that "the Prime Minister's Office has informally ordered that our boys should not respond to such hostile moves unless higher levels get consulted". In practice, he says, such consultations "almost always get replied to with an order to ignore the firing and the taunts". It has already been reported in these columns that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is regarded with distaste by the men in uniform for his Sunshine Policy towards Islamabad. The PM has been joined by Defence Minister A.K. Antony in being the butt of uncharitable comments related to the PMO-MoD policy of avoiding a robust response to provocative actions from across the border.
These commanders said that "proper rules of engagement" would have resulted in an "immediate and deadly response to the killing of five of our boys by the Pakistani military". But for the informal restrictions on counter-activity, "the Indian Army would have in hours inflicted such damage to the other side that they would have thought twice before launching provocative actions".
They claimed that in those few sectors where local commanders "with spirit were still allowed to function", the Pakistan side was quiet. There was anger at reports that junior officers would be punished for what was in their view "a failure of the higher command to appreciate that force is the best way to ensure calm". Several officers said that "since Kargil, it has become the fashion for higher-ups to blame juniors for their own mistakes". They said that scrutiny of postings would show that "those commanders who inflicted a robust response to provocations were quickly moved out of sensitive commands".
These officers said that the "zigzag pattern of deployment of our troops and the enemy" meant that preventing an ambush in the Poonch sector was "difficult". Therefore, they added, the only way of deterring such action was to ensure "a strong response to any hostile action". According to them, such a course has been informally countermanded by the political leadership, in deference to the desire to chase the chimera of peace with Pakistan, and warned that "unless the Army is given the freedom to act against provocations, more of our soldiers will pay the ultimate price".

Friday, 9 August 2013

Defence Minister Antony & ‘Indian way’ (PO)

MD Nalapat

Friday, August 09, 2013 - In her wisdom, Congress President Sonia Gandhi chose a known pacifist, Arecaparambil Kurian Antony, to be the Defense Minister of India. Throughout his life, Antony has been a voluble votary of non-violence, and it is no secret that he shares with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a desire to avoid war. Interestingly, after then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee was elected the President of India a year ago, it is Antony who was chosen by Sonia Gandhi to be the Number Two in the Union Cabinet.

The mild-mannered Defense Minister is also known to be a favourite of Congress Vice-Preesident and Heir Apparent Rahul Gandhi. Both mother and son have chosen Antony to be one of their top two political advisers as well, together with the Political Advisor to the Congress President, Ahmed Patel (who is considered in Delhi to be much more powerful than Manmohan Singh in that when the PM asks a minister to get something done,the request may or may not get complied with. On the other hand, when Ahmed Patel asks a minister to get something done, it almost always is. In all matters relating to the working of the Congress Party, decisions get taken by Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Ahmled Patel, A K Antony and Ambika Soni, another favourite of mother and son. Indeed, Ambika Soni has been a formidable presence in Delhi for the past thirty years. During 1976-80,she was the confidant of then PM Indira Gandhi and son Sanjay Gandhi, exactly the way she is so very close to Sonia and Rahul these days, together with A K Antony, who spends almost as much time on political matters as in the running of the Defense Ministry. Indeed, so busy was Antony with politics as usual that neither he or any of his ministerial colleagues spared the time needed to attend the solemn function in Delhi airport when the bodies of the soldiers were sent to their homes in different states’

Since the period when she was in the UK as a young lady. Sonia Gandhi has always had friends from Pakistan, whose charm and wit have ensured that some of these Pakistani friends remained close for decades.

She knew that in Manmohan Singh she had chosen a PM who would be ready to walk an extra hundred miles in order to try and ensure peace with Pakistan. Thereafter, by choosing a Defense Minister who has been a 100% Gandhian ( following both Mahatma Gandhi and Indira Gandhi with zeal, except during 1977-80 when he opposed the latter) all his

life, both the Congress President as well as the Prime Minister knew that Antony would fully back their policy of seeking peace with Pakistan. It is clear from the events of August 6 that Antony has sought to fulfill their wishes. The Defense Minister has in effect destroyed his own political career by stating publicly that the killing of five Indian soldiers that day in a region near the Line of Control was done by individuals “in the uniform of the Pakistan army”, which is very different from saying that the action was carried out by the army itself. So strong is the public anger at the killings that the Defense Minister’s mild statement (and the complete lack of a statement from the PM) has resulted in public opinion turning against him as an individual who lacks the fire needed to head the Defense Ministry. Several commentators have placed the blame for Antony’s statement on the killings on the PM. However, others say that the mildness of the response was because of signals from Washington.

Experience has shown that no matter how grave the terror attack or the number of soldiers killed, each US administration has always called on India to “show restraint”, a course of action exactly the opposite of what they themselves do in such instances. Indeed, the only instance when the US had responded in what may be described as an “Indian manner” to a provocation was its complete lack of an effective response to the murder at Benghazi of its ambassador. Ironically, Christopher Stevens was killed by the same groups that he had empowered and backed just two years previously to bring down the Kaddafy regime. That Washington has as much influence over Delhi since Manmohan Singh became PM in 2004 as London had over India’s capital city during the British Raj is a perception widely shared within the country. The Obama administration is very particular that there should be talks between India and Pakistan. The killing of five soldiers has the potential to create an ugly public mood sufficient to make it politically hazardous for Manmohan Singh to listen to the Obama administration and enter into detailed talks with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The fierce reaction to the Defense Minister’s low-key statement has probably been responsible for Prime Minister Singh to keep silent about the episode rather than stand by his minister.

Apart from statements or the temporary suspension of talks, the Manmohan Singh government has no other way of responding to actions seen as provocative. Fortunately for the Congress Party, the BJP-led government of Atal Behari Vajpayee had the same policy as Manmohan Singh, of symbolic (and futile) gestures rather than military action.

The swirl of anger that this longstanding “Indian Way” of responding has created within the country opens the way for a future government to respond in a manner that the US administration disapproves of. Both within the military as well as in the public, there has been a hardening of views regarding talks with Pakistan. Should Manmohan Singh ignore these trends and meet Nawaz Sharif in New York, his party is likely to face a very hostile reaction back home.


http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=215108

Thursday, 8 August 2013

Time to back the anti-Wahabbi tide (Gateway House)

By M. D. Nalapat


In 1933, German President Paul von Hindenburg was advised by Franz von Papen and others that the best way to deal with the unrest in Germany caused by economic catastrophe was to bring the NSDAP (commonly known as the Nazi Party) into the government, with Adolf Hitler as Chancellor. That the ideology of the NSDAP was unalterably opposed to democracy, and that the Nazis were only using the perquisites of elected office to strengthen themselves sufficiently was hardly a secret. The strategy had been revealed not only in the speeches of Joseph Goebbels, Hermann Goering and Hitler himself but repeated several times in commentaries in the party media. None of this was allowed to stand in the way of inducting Hitler and his party into the portals of power. The consequences of that decision need no retelling.
If U.S. President Barack Obama were to follow the advice given by his administration to Hamid Karzai, General Al-Sissi and other presumed allies of the U.S., Obama himself would work towards ensuring that his own team – upto the level of the Vice-President – would include members of the Tea Party, and even a sprinkling of those whose ideological home is the Ku Klux Klan. In the years immediately preceding independence from the British in 1947, India’s Congress Party was advised by Lord Wavell, then Viceroy, to include Muslim League notables in the cabinet headed by Jawaharlal Nehru. Once these individuals entered the government, they began to work zealously in sabotaging its coherence and its efficacy.
In like fashion, to involve the Taliban in the formal process of running the government of Afghanistan would be to doom the Afghan government and state into chaos and incoherence. The ideology of the Taliban is explicit on the aims of that formation, and those subscribing to such a viewpoint would be unwilling – and indeed unfit – to work alongside representatives from the overwhelming majority of moderate Afghans who, especially after the events of 1996-2003, detest and fear the Taliban. However, this has not prevented the Obama administration from seeking to do a Hindenburg in that country by asking for the entry, into governance, of a group explicitly committed to the overthrow of the very system that Washington believes will be strengthened by its induction. In the case of Egypt as well, the Obama administration has joined forces with the EU, those other supporters of the doctrine of ‘taming’ extremes by giving them access to power.
In particular, across the Middle East, the Wahabbi ideology which is at the core of the various offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood, has ensured that such groups begin to alarm the rest of society by their pursuit of a sectarian and exclusivist agenda. The only difference between Egypt and Turkey is that Mohamed Morsi sought to speed up what Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan implemented in slow motion. The direction in both has been the same: a consistent push towards a societal order in conformity with the theology that is the bedrock of the movement, where its practitioners have special access to the Almighty, and which is suffused with dogma and with methods incompatible with democratic functioning. The trajectories followed in Turkey, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia show the consequences of empowering groups that have a vision which can only lead to the slow – or rapid – stifling of genuine democracy. With Egypt, the attempted transition was rapid, as the Brotherhood saw itself as immune from the military because of the support it received not only from regional financial powerhouses such as Qatar but from the U.S. and the EU as well.
Since 1992, I have argued that the alliance between the West and Wahabbism posed a severe security risk to not just the West but to the Muslim world – in that it enabled Wahabbism to replace more tolerant strains of the Sunni branch of Islam. Across the globe, the awesome money power of what may be called ‘Wahabbi International’ has resulted in the capture or building of innumerable houses of worship across the secular world. More ominously, it has resulted in a hardening of sermons in such places of worship and other institutions, and to Wahabbism replacing the tolerant strains of the faith as the primary motif in religious literature and teaching.
The Shia branch of the faith has suffered its own Wahabbization, thanks to the doctrine propounded by Iran’s Imam Khomeini, who sought to replace orthodox Shia schools of theology with his own rigid interpretation of the texts the way Abdul Wahab did three centuries ago in the case of the Sunni version of the faith. This twin radicalisation of what is essentially a syncretic and tolerant faith has had devastating social and geopolitical consequences, which is why it is incomprehensible why the West continues to believe that Wahabbism can be moderated and rendered a geopolitical asset.
The reality is that the core teachings of the faith make it almost impossible for convinced Wahabbis to carry out the adjustments needed to find common ground with others. Their compromises reflect a tactical measure designed to gain time in order to secure the undiluted Wahabbi version at a later date. Such a mindset is why the entry of Wahabbis into the structures of governance is fraught with risk. To those who argue that the Qatari and Saudi royal families prove that Wahabbis can be trusted with the management of a state, it needs to be pointed out that neither the Qatari nor the Saudi royals – or at least the ruling groups within them – subscribe to Wahabbi ideology in practice. Their lifestyles and practices are incompatible with Wahabbism. However, fearful of the recurrence of a 1979 situation, both the Qatari as well as the Saudi royals have empowered Wahabbi groups in a manner that threatens their existence.
That the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood is incompatible with the preservation of royal rule within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is obvious. Should Brotherhood elements within the GCC ever gain the traction needed to do an (2011) Egypt or Tunisia in the GCC, they would do so with despatch. This is why the Qatari royals backing for the Brotherhood has within it the seeds of the self-destruction of their dynasty.
A GCC leader who has understood the danger that the Muslim Brotherhood represents is King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who has sought to change the ethos of his country in a way not attempted since 1979. Very silently, he has diluted the Wahabbist orientation of administrative structures and relaxed restrictions previously enforced by religious police. Hopefully, the post-1979 Al-Saud policy of buying off Wahabbi groups is being rolled back by the present monarch.
However, whatever fall in funding to Wahabbi International taking place as a consequence of King Abdullah, is being more than compensated by the rulers of Qatar – which believes that it can win over Wahabbis through chequebook diplomacy. Across the Middle East and recently in other locations as well, Muslim Brotherhood offshoots are being diplomatically and financially backed by Qatar, thereby strengthening such groups. The overwhelming majority of Muslims across the globe are no different in their wants and worldview from Christians, Jews, Buddhists or Hindus, and thus an attempted Wahabbization of society – camouflaged or overt – is being resisted. In Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and elsewhere, there have been mass protests against the Wahabbis and their political and NGO offshoots. Such a movement against the extremism which Wahabbism represents is a return to the true spirit of Islam.
The backing away by the ordinary Muslim from the tide of Wahabbism is very much in the global interest. It is unfortunate that the West is peddling nonsensical nostrums to its friends in Muslim-majority countries, advising them to empower extremists in the name of inclusive governance. Groups that misuse religion for political motives and favour restrictive codes of human behaviour so as to promote a monochrome ideal, are the enemies of democracy and ought never to be encouraged.
If Afghanistan is to be stable, the Taliban must have no place in it, and this is a future that is possible, given the fact that the Pashtuns are at the core as moderate as Tajiks or Uzbeks. Rather than repeat in locations such as Syria the Brezezinski-Casey strategy of arming and training extremists, the West needs to adopt a hands-off approach to what is going to be a decade of societal churning, first within the Middle East and later in Muslim societies across the globe.
Asking the Egyptian authorities to bring back the Muslim Brotherhood into the structures of governance is to take away any chance of stability or the winning back of the traditions of a great faith from first the Wahabbis and later the Khomeinists. The mistake made by Hindenburg in 1933 should not be repeated.
M. D. Nalapat is vice-chair of Manipal Advanced Research Group and UNESCO peace chair, and professor of geopolitics at Manipal University, India.
This article was written exclusively for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can find more exclusive features here
For interview requests with the author, or for permission to republish, please contact Gautam Kagalwala at kagalwala.gautam@gatewayhouse.in or 022 22023371.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

A last chance for economic survival (Sunday Guardian)

MADHAV NALAPAT
ROOTS OF POWER


RBI Governor D. Subbarao with deputy governors H.R. Khan, K.C. Chakrabarty, Urjit Patel and Anand Sinha during the unveiling of the quarterly review of RBI’s monetary policy in Mumbai on Tuesday. PTI
uring the last quarter, for which information was released, "core growth" in the once-booming Indian economy was 0.1%. The combination of Jean Dreze and Duvvuri Subbarao has ensured that the Indian growth story has reached the gravesite and is within a few hard blows of extinction. Although comparisons are being made between the 2013 economic crisis and the situation in 1991, the fact is that 22 years ago, institutions in India were much stronger than they today are.
As a consequence, remedial action has become much more difficult, and could soon become impossible, should the present crisis be allowed to escalate through the avoidance of policy decisions that are sufficient to reverse the slide into chaos. The gloomy faces of the captains of industry at their meeting with Manmohan Singh were indicative of a rising tide of panic within their ranks. The bigger ones have for the past six years been shifting their operations abroad, so that this country accounts for a falling share of revenue. It is the others — those that betted 100% on India — that are in serious trouble. Even as incomes are falling, the Income Tax Department has become more insistent that this has not happened, that enterprises are actually in a boom period, except that these higher figures are not getting recorded in the books of account shown to the tax authorities. Because income-tax officers have been given higher and higher collection targets by the Finance Minister, they have no option but to squeeze out whatever extra money they can from corporate and other assesses, no matter that such an approach is killing these entities.
The Finance Minister has no option but to set higher targets, presumably praying that he will be out of a job by the middle of next year, leaving the debris left behind by a collapsed economy to be tackled by a new incumbent. Jean Dreze does not have much idea about how to promote growth — although his NGO friends clearly believe that economic expansion is possible without consuming natural resources or electricity — but he has very definite views on how money should get spent.
Hence, the succession of freebies and doles, all getting funded out of a shrinking cake of economic growth. The huge increase in government outlay leads to higher inflation, at which point our other hero, RBI governor Subbarao, tightens money supply still more, apparently not aware that government profligacy cannot be held by a mere rise in interest rates. Higher interest charges (already around 14%, an unsustainable rate for much of industry and trade) lead to slower growth and consequently smaller revenue, which is sought to be compensated by exactions such as what was attempted in the case of Vodafone, where the seller of shares (Hutchison Whampoa) escaped being taxed but the investor was told to cough up.
In their desperate bid to garner more taxes, authorities in India have launched more MNC transfer pricing cases in the recent past than have been seen in previous decades, thereby dooming initiatives such as a relaxation in FDI in selected circles to fail.
The lower growth resulting from Dreze-Subbarao policies pushes up the fiscal deficit and consequently boosts inflation, thereby resulting in the RBI tightening the spigot even more harshly. In the process, the Central bank dooms hundreds of companies into defaulting on their loans. As a result of Dreze and Subbarao, the Indian banking sector is rapidly becoming as sick as the sector became during 2005-8 in the US and in parts of the EU, with the difference that this country does not have the financial cushion needed to stabilise the banks. Aware of this, speculators are making a killing out of making a safe bet, that the rupee is headed downwards towards 75 to a US dollar and even 90, thereby boosting prices (and monetary tightening) even more.
The only way out of this deadly spiral is for the Manmohan Singh team to throw "politics as usual" to the winds and act to preserve the future of India. The only way this can happen is if incoherent policies get replaced with rational measures.
Kapil Sibal can blame the courts, and P. Chidambaram the Comptroller and Auditor General, but ultimately it is they who need to act. Will they, and their boss, do so? If not, by March 2014 the Congress party will anyway be the loser because of unbearable economic turmoil. And so will the country.