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Sunday, 20 June 1999

Dishonest Broker: U.S. Role in Indo-Pakistani Relations


(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)


With admirable candour, former test captains in Pakistan have
reminisced about the methods used to ensure a win. Tampering
with the seam of the ball, getting a friendly umpire, and bribing
rival players are among the sportsmanlike gestures favoured by
our friendly neighbour. Looking at the Benazir Bhutto regime’s
performance—which includes rocketing its own mosque to once
again paint India as an anti-Islamic state—it is clear that the
Pakistan premier is an admirer of her cricket team's methods.
In its eagerness to ensure a "fair" result (one in which it gets
99 per cent of what it seeks), the Bhutto regime has been trying
to insinuate as a "neutral" umpire the very country that has
backed Pakistan against India since 1950, and which has rewarded
Islamabad’s terrorist war against India by re-establishing a
strategic relationship with it. After the George Bush interregnum,
when facts about South Asia were faced and not fudged, President
Clinton has returned to the traditional Pentagon policy of
buttressing Pakistan against India. In a remarkable interpretation
of "even-handedness", Islamabad is being given a billion dollars
worth of sophisticated weapons, while India has not been
offered even a handgun.

Training Terrorists
In a further refinement of the meaning of candour, the Clinton
administration has in effect denied not only that China has given
M-11 missiles to Pakistan, but that the Bhutto regime is using
Lahore, Muzaffarabad and Peshawar to train thousands of
terrorists for operations within India. During the past year, the
scope of ISI operations has expanded beyond fundamentalist
fanatics in Kashmir to left extremists in Bihar and other centres.

Judging by the shrill commands emanating from the Clinton
administration, India needs to be punished for preserving a
secular democracy in a neighbourhood infested with U5-
supported dictatorships. This country needs to be punished for
attempting to prevent its balkanisation through the setting up of
a fundamentalist state on its northern borders. Most importantly,
retribution must be swift should India attempt to protect itself
against the danger of China arming Pakistan with nuclear
weapons and delivery systems. In the process the million dollar
question—Will the US put at risk New York and San Francisco
to protect Mumbai and Calcutta?—has gone unanswered.

Within a few years the US administration may witness on its
own soil the consequences of flirting with fundamentalism. 
Louis Farrakhan has, in a much milder forr, begun articulating
the position that only a "separate homeland" can solve the
problems of African Americans. Thus the "Pakistan syndrome"
has finally hit the US, just as it will France, Germany and Britain
during the next decade. Strangely, the very American diplomats
who are so enthusiastic about "homeland" arguments when
applied to Kashmir have thus far refrained from congratulating
Farrakhan on his wisdom.

India, however, has a different agenda. Which is to resist the
attempt by the two US surrogates, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to
inject fundamentalism into the region. While Riyadh is funding
extremist groups, Islamabad is training them. Both are
participating in attempting to destabilise moderate regimes in
central Asia by replacing them with fundamentalists. How
international security can be enhanced by such actions on the
part of these two "moderate democracies" is not clear. However,
the point to be noted is that the US supply of weapons to both
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan means that Washington cannot escape
responsibility for the actions of these countries.

Where Pakistan is concerned, so long as the Bush policy of
non-supply of lethal weapons was adhered to, Washington
could argue that it was not responsible for Islamabad's actions,
just as a businessman can argue that the deeds of an acquaintance
cannot be blamed on him, However, should the businessman
employ the acquaintance, the relationship changes into one of
principal and agent. By resuming the earlier arms supply
relationship with Pakistan, the Clinton administration has made
itself answerable for Islamabad’s actions, including the terrorist
war.

'Out of Control'
Clearly, Washington would not give sophisticated armaments to
a country unless it had a significant degree of leverage there.
Thus it is no longer possible to feign non-culpability in Islamabad’s
"terror factories" in Lahore, Muzaffarabad and Peshawar. If
Pakistan were "out of control" in carrying out such activities,
surely the US would not have trusted it with lethal weapons.

India needs to adopt a variant of the US policy of "even-
handedness" and link US advice on security issues to the
behaviour of Pakistan. So long as Washington’s strategic ally
continues with its terrorist war on India, it will be difficult to
take seriously US protestations that it is supportive of India’s
security concerns. Even more than the Clinton administration’s
unwillingness to rein in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan from
promoting fanaticism around the globe, what is inexplicable is
New Delhi's inability to realise that with the swearing in of Bill
Clinton, US policy had resumed its Pakistan tilt. For more than
three years, this fact has been obvious to all except the PMO and
the MEA.

As a consequence of this myopia, India has over the past
three years implemented a chain of "confidence-building
measures" while Pakistan has focused on "confidence-blocking
methods". As a consequence, immense damage has been done to
Indian security. While Islamabad has waged its war on India
with undiluted ferocity, now extending it to left extremists and
to states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the Rao government
has responded by lowering defence preparedness and giving
credibility to agents of Pakistan such as the Hurriyat Conference.

National Security
Unless it is the policy of Raisina Hill to demolish India's defenses
as completely as they were neglected during 1957-62, there is
need to set up a national security machinery that is not
compromised by officials thirsting after dollar pensions. Such a
machinery would be able to formulate and get implemented a
strategy that would deter mischief-makers from attacking India.
Had such a deterrent been in operation already, India would not
have been undergoing the trauma of having a terrorist war
waged against it, and watching as self-declared "friends" seek to
repeat their efforts of 1953 and 1963 to delink Kashmir from the
rest of the country.

There is need to involve the private sector in the nuclear
power programme, so that the Department of Atomic Energy
can concentrate on developing both power-related as well as
deterrent-related technologies, Before the CTBT comes into
operation in four years time, India needs to follow France and
China in perfecting its weapons systems, so that these are safe
and reliable. Work on delivery systems—including its civilian
applications—needs to get speeded up. As for Washington, a
country that pleads ignorance of Pakistan’s efforts to become a
nuclear and missile power—rather than admitting the truth—
has no ethical right to condemn India for taking care of the
security of 900 million people who have sought to preserve
secular democracy in their country against the wars and terror
propagated by a country that has been emboldened to attack
India only because it has got diplomatic and material support
from Washington.



Friday, 11 June 1999

Pakistan: The end of innocence (Rediff)

George Fernandes is a dear friend, and a very brave individual fully committed to the country of his birth. Whether organising taxi drivers in Mumbai during the 1960s or railway staff in the 1974, he showed a courage not shared by many politicians. However, his weakness was -- and is -- a blind reliance on friends, a trait he shares with close buddy Brajesh Mishra, the de facto prime minister of India, otherwise titled 'principal secretary to the prime minister'. Clearly, this has led him astray, as when he relied totally on (then) defence secretary Ajit Kumar and delighted the babu lobby by dismissing Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat.

George is an avid reader of history. He should have gone through the archives of the greatest naval power of the past era, Britain. He would have read of Fisher or Jellicoe, crusty salts who irritated their civilian masters beyond endurance, yet were retained by them in view of their brilliance. Bhagwat's advocacy of a blue water navy built on largely indigenous foundations did anger two lobbies: the first, which wants India to remain a weak power. And the second, which derives huge commissions on sale of what is essentially scrap to the armed forces at hugely inflated prices.

Had Vishnu Bhagwat -- a brilliant strategic mind and a patriot as true as Fernandes himself -- devoted some attention to better relations with his minister, the country may have avoided an action caused by the jealousy of Ajit Kumar magnified operationally through the (then) defence secretary's very, very, very close links to Brajesh.

For Brajesh, as his superiors in the foreign service soon found out, to think is to act. These days the poor man goes through a very punishing schedule. A quick breakfast, followed by a dozen meetings at each of which orders have to be barked out to underlings such as the Cabinet secretary or the foreign secretary (both highly capable officers who would have done much better were they left alone).

After that, a lunch with a senior editor, followed by tea with an industrialist. Then a quick recitation to the prime minister, telling him what he needs to do to remain a good boy, followed by two dinners, at two socialite homes in Delhi, with an exhausted Brajesh leaving for home in the early hours, reflecting on how exhausting it is to save this benighted country.

Truly, Prime Minister Vajpayee could not have found a better person to ensure that Sonia Gandhi takes over his job soon.

Those familiar with Pakistan, and who do not derive their input from two British nationals based in London who have close ties to the Pakistan army, know it cannot be trusted and that any strategic concession to it is immediately seen as a sign of weakness. That is why many have argued against any such concessions, even while showing generosity towards the business community and other civilians in that country.

Sadly, India is still controlled by the British, these days through the two UK citizens mentioned earlier, who make Indian prime ministers dance the tango at will. As a result, the Government of India retreated on its Kashmir formulation and moved closer to the vicious Pakistani position. It was not at Lahore that the recent incursions by the Pakistan army were planned. It was after Lahore, after the dilution of India's stand by a prime minister anxious perhaps to be the second Indian premier after Morarji Desai to win the coveted Nishan-e-Pakistan. Hopefully, Atal Bihari Vajpayee will slough off his love for the two Londoners and not make any more errors of judgement on Pakistan.

George Fernandes should not be blamed for not knowing that the ISI is part of the Pakistan army. Not many people know this. Most believe the ISI is a civilian organisation, unaware that the best brains in the Pakistan army are seconded to it, and that it works in daily liaison with the Pakistan armed forces general staff directorate.

It is unfair to blame the defence minister of India for lacking this piece of information, especially when his priority is to ensure that the Samata Party does not splinter in Bihar and leave the field clear for Laloo Prasad Yadav. However, some friend could perhaps suggest to George that he is a brilliant political organiser, and should concentrate on that, leaving the burdens of a ministry to lesser folk.

As for the clean chit to Mian Nawaz Sharief, here again few are aware that by now both Sharief and his brother Shahbaz have got co-opted into the drugs-terror industry in Pakistan. This sector of the Pakistan economy generates $ 20 billion in revenue each year, much of which goes to finance the education of the children of the Pakistan armed forces and officials and politicians. The stupid offspring are sent to Australia, while the brighter ones go to the United States. Cretins go to Switzerland, where everything has a price tag.

Were the Indian government to make a quick survey of just how many Pakistanis on government payrolls have children studying abroad (or wives and girlfriends in business), it may realise just why that country will never make peace with India. Should peace break out, then attention will get focussed away from red herrings such as "the world's most dangerous nuclear flashpoint" or "the longest-running insurgency" to the trade in the poppy and its products.

Just as rogue elements in the Chinese army use Myanmar as a base for supply and shipment of heroin that they control, the Pakistan army (including the ISI) has moved opium production facilities to Afghanistan. However, as the Taliban Pashtuns are minions of the Pakistani Punjabis, very little of the profits of this trade return to Afghanistan.

Thanks to the need of the drugs lobby to keep alive terror and tension as a diversion drawing attention away from itself, there is no hope of a reconciliation with Pakistan until an honest prime minister comes to power in Islamabad. And if he does, the chances are that he will be blown away by a bomb blamed on "indian intelligence".

Benazir Bhutto soon got co-opted into the drugs lobby thanks to Asif Ali Zardari's love for cash. Nawaz Sharief held out for a while, but has today become as much an agent of this network as Zardari was. Thus, it is wishful thinking to believe that the gang of drug-runners that controls Pakistan will ever accept a settlement based on the status quo.

However, gestures such as the Lahore bus trip should continue to be made, in order to teach the common people of Pakistan that India is their friend, even while refusing to fall into the clutches of the Pakistan army.

Squadron Leader Ahuja was, in a most cowardly fashion, shot down by the Pakistan army after touching down. Had the Government of India shown the gunshot wounds caused by that despicable act, it would have sent tremors across the world and perhaps dissuaded Islamabad from further atrocities. However, as another gesture of goodwill towards Pakistan, the gallant airman was cremated without showing to the world the desecration done to a brave human being.

Unless the Government of India breaks away from this reliance on advice from Washington, it will be untrue to its duty. Just as the Vajpayee government has not yet taken action against Gopi Arora (who knows more about Bofors than any other officer), it has thus far refused to show on television the many Pakistan army regulars captured by it. Why this compassion for the drugs-terror lobby that runs that country?

Right-thinking elements in the Peoples Liberation Army of China need to realise that the policy of those among them who are partners of the Pakistan army in the drugs trade is harmful to Beijing's interests. These rogue elements gave Pakistan a nuclear device, and now are being bribed to ensure that Islamabad is given a full-fledged weapon.should the PLA continue to transfer nuclear technology to Pakistan directly or indirectly, New Delhi will have every justification for giving such know-how to Vietnam and Taiwan. Two can play the game, not just China.

As for Washington, that capital needs to realise that the greatest emerging threat to democratic states comes from the very drugs-terror industry that is being nurtured by its Pakistani client. India needs to educate opinion in the United States on this menace, while strengthening its own laws against drugs to match the standards of Singapore.

India is on the front line of the drugs-terror war. Please recognise that, Mr Prime Minister, and act before it is too late.


Sunday, 30 May 1999

Indo-US Relations - Giving Away too much for Nothing


(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)


In this age of the cable, when soaps are just a button away, few
can be unaware that one of the rules of romance is to play hard 
to get. Should the maiden reveal her feelings prematurely, the 
swain is likely to take her for granted and, consequently, neglect 
her. This is what appears to have happened in the case of India 
and the United States. 

Nowhere did the collapse of the Soviet Union come as a 
greater shock than in Havana and New Delhi. Cuba, at least, had
the excuse of being far away. India and the erstwhile USSR were 
neighbours. .However, even when the putsch against Mikhail 
Gorbachov took place, one of the few embassies to cosy up to the
team of tired apparatchiks that had temporarily taken over the
Kremlin was the Indian one. After the collapse, India appears , 
anxious to enter into yet another comfortable security relationship, 
this time with. the United States. Hence the flow of conciliatory
gestures to that country.

Henry Kissinger, in his book Diplomacy makes clear the U.S.
perspective on unilateral concessions. These, says Kissinger, are
to be taken as signs of vulnerability, and the effort should,
therefore, be to squeeze out yet more concessions, rather than
reward such naivete by positive gestures. As the book had not
yet come out in l991-93 we may perhaps excuse the authors of
the many unilateral concessions this country gave to the U.S.
Alas for them, this policy was reciprocated by renewed American
pressure on sensitive issues like defence technology and Kashmir.

Security Curtain
Earlier, in 1963, this country had come close to entering into a
security curtain provided by the U.S. S. K. Patil, at that time a
Cabinet minister, had said that there had been informal high-
level discussions within the Congress leadership on working out 
security ties with western countries in response to the Chinese 
invasion of 1962. "However, both the British and the Americans 
then started pressuring us to make concessions to Pakistan on
Kashmir, and as a result the idea got dropped". Three decades
later another move for security ties with the United States had
begun to wither in the face of a renewed U.S. tilt towards 
Pakistan. The recent statements of a U.S. under-secretary for
defence that implied that relations with India were conditional 
on Pakistani approval, has at last, led to an Indian reaction. The 
Indian defence secretary's visit to Washington has been
"postponed".

The interlude not just from 1991 but from 1989 to the present 
may be seen as one when India neglected its security systems 
and, slowed down the development of missile and other 
technologies in order to placate Washington. Ironically, it is  
American policy and allies of the U.S. that have been creating 
security concerns for this country in the form of fundamentalist 
terrorism. Afghanistan is the obvious example. During the 1980s,  
U.S.-funded network of terrorist's was created that is now  
active as a mercenary force around the globe. Bolstering the ISI,   
which focused on religion as a means of generating morale and  
fighting spirit during the Afghan war, led to substantial sections 
of the Pakistan army coming under the spell of fundamentalism.  
Its utility as an anti-fundamentalist fighting force is today — 
questionable. 

Fundamentalist Forces 
The significance of this transformation is that should a government
take office in Pakistan that lays stress not on conflicts but on  
business, fundamentalist elements could well induce the armed ,   
forces in Pakistan to intervene and crush attempts at secularising 
that country's polity. Secondly, should there be an upsurge in  
any of the major Gulf countries on the lines witnessed in Iran 
when the Shah was to led, the Gulf sheikhdoms would no  
longer be able to count on Pakistan to provide a counterforce.    
The cry of jihad raised so often by Benazir Bhutto has the  
potential to destroy the cohesiveness of her country.  

Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are financing and supporting 
fundamentalist organisations on a much greater scale than the  
other theocracy in the region, Iran. In the process, their ruling  
elites may be in the process of nurturing a monster that will 
eventually devour them. As for the U.S., just as it supplied arms 
to Iran in the Shah’s time, it is doing so in Saudi Arabia and 
would probably like to in Pakistan, but for Congress. In contrast 
to the economics-oriented policy pursued by the Clinton 
administration in most of the world, in the case of the Gulf and 
Pakistan, little U.S. pressure seems to exist to make the ruling  
elites of these countries give precedence to a civilian 
administration over the military. In the case of Pakistan, in 
renewing a military alliance with that state, the U.S. may be 
sacrificing not just the possibility of a strategic alliance with 
India, but also stability in Pakistan. Any injection of arms there
will lead to a response from this country, thus triggering off an
arms race that will debilitate the Pakistani economy far more and 
far quicker than it can India's. 

However, this does not appear to be clear to the individuals 
at the policy planning centres in the Clinton administration.
Watching them at work, one is reminded of those who steered
to the U.S. into the Vietnam war. All the calculations were right but
most of the conclusions wrong. In the decade ahead, the U.S. is
likely to enter into a conflict against a fundamentalist enemy
nourished in the past by American policy errors. Should Benazir
Bhutto have taken a stand against anti-secular laws, and choked 
off the irregular war against India in favour of economic
cooperation with this country, she would have earned the 
epithet bestowed on her by Clinton of "moderate". Today, this
is far from the truth. By ignoring the financial support given by
Saudi Arabia to fundamentalist organisations and the military
help given to them by Pakistan, the U.S. is acquiescing in 
cultivating an enemy not just of stability in the subcontinent but
of itself. 

U.S. Sanction
In the case of Iran, by attempting at quarantine ignored even by
the United Kingdom—the U.S. is reinforcing the siege mentality 
propagated by the religious zealots, thus weakening among the  
Iranian people the only counterjforce to theocracy, the bazaaris. 
Another country where sanctions "have lasted beyond a reasonable 
stage is Iraq, which unlike Saudi Arabia or Pakistan has attempted 
to craft a secular (though repressive) polity. While India has 
refused to follow the U.S. lead on Iran, in the case of Iraq too this
country needs to be more assertive within the international 
community in calling for an end to sanctions. A generation 
should not be allowed to form in Iran and Iraq that sees major 
democracies as tyrannies out to strangle their national existence,
or else future terrorist organisations may find rich pickings 
within these states. 

To predicate New Delhi's policy on the dictates of a country 
that has repeatedly shown extreme myopia in its dealings with
Asia is folly. Should India neglect to create defences against the 
fundamentalism being propagated by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan 
and others, this may prove fatal to its existence. Policy has to be 
formulated not to meet the political demands of those in 
Washington but to answer the security needs of the region in
which this country is situated.  




Saturday, 22 May 1999

From Mahatma Gandhi to Madam Gandhi (Rediff)

Twenty-four years ago, at the Kochi headquarters of the Kerala Pradesh Congress committee, a telegram came to the state chief, the venerable Arecaparambil Kurien Antony. 'Organise spontaneous demonstrations across the state to protest against Sinha judgment', it read. In less than two hours, Antony himself was at the head of a 'spontaneous' demonstration on Kochi's MG Road attacking the verdict of Justice Sinha of the Allahabad high court, which held Indira Gandhi guilty of corrupt practices in her 1971 election. Thanks to orders sent on the phone to units across the state, similar marches took place in all district headquarters. Across the country, an orchestrated protest was spontaneously organized.

Today, almost nothing has changed. Both Vincent George and the (aptly named) Makhan Lal Fotedar have been at work creating the resignations, protests and cacophony of abuse against Sharad Pawar, Purno Sangma and Tariq Anwar. Just as she did when Indira Gandhi was alive -- when any refusal to oblige an Italian friend would be followed by the quick exit of Rajiv, Sonia and the two kids of Europe -- Sonia Gandhi has staged a theatrical walkout, to return only when her whims get fulfilled.

India is supposed to be a democracy. However, as in the Fascist Party that was so dear to her father Stefano, the slightest deviation from II Duce's wishes is treated as high treason. Instead of heeding the message, Sonia is getting the messengers shot.

However, let us assume that she is genuine about wanting to lavish every drop of her blood on the country that every month spends over a million US dollars on her upkeep. In that case, she should lower the financial burden on we taxpayers by moving out of 10 Janpath to the lavish Mehrauli farmhouse owned by her. Care should also be taken to avoid all those expensive phone calls -- all at taxpayer expense -- to Europe and North America. As for her frequent foreign trips, hopefully Sonia will stop the practice of taking along an army of security personnel on each such jaunt.

As Atal Bihari Vajpayee is a chivalrous individual, there is almost no chance that the citizens of India will be told how much is being spent on Sonia Gandhi's travel, telephones, maintenance and other expenses. Like Narasimha Rao, it is only when he is out of office, and at the receiving end of the PILs and cases filed by her minions, that Vajpayee will realize the extent of his error.

The Western press that lionises Sonia needs to subject her to the same inquisition that their own politicians face. In the United States, even the food eaten by the President and the First Lady is public knowledge. In India, few are aware that Sonia and her children love 'boloni', an Italian sausage filled with delicious beef and ham. Back in 1982, George Fernandes talked about Rajiv Gandhi's love for beef and ham. Swiftly, Indira Gandhi made her eldest son visit every second temple in the country, to deflect attention away from such charges. How could a devout temple visitor eat pork or beef? It must be a mistake!

In this writer's view, there is absolutely nothing wrong in eating ham or beef, and it is strange that Sonia Gandhi is taking such pains to keep the food habits of herself and her two children secret. Many Hindus eat ham, and some even consume beef. To admit this openly would reveal character, to conceal it would show a sly personality. In like vein, there is absolutely no crime in the fact that Sonia Gandhi and her two children are practising Catholics. After all, Christianity is one of the great religions of the world, and in India Christians have done much, much more than other faiths to spread health and education.

The present writer is himself the product of Christian schools, and is proud of it, just as he is for winning the Scripture Prizes at an all-India competition. Just as the message of the Gita is universal, so is that of the Bible, and all citizens of India should taught both. Thus, it is strange that Sonia Gandhi acts as though she were ashamed to be a Christian, and pretends to be a Hindu by visiting Tirupati as a 'believer'.

Similarly, there is nothing objectionable in the fact that the language of discourse in the Rajiv Gandhi household was and is Italian. Sonia speaks to her children in that language when they are alone, rather than in two languages that she is not familiar with, Hindi and English. It is because Italian is the language of choice for her and the children that Sonia still has a pronounced Italian accent, thirty years after marrying an Indian. It is the accent of the class that she belonged to, and again there is nothing to be ashamed of in the fact that her father could not afford to complete even the school education of his three daughters. However, in his last years he died an affluent man. Indeed, the tax records (again hidden from the citizens of India, by obliging Italian governments that protect Sonia as fiercely as President Flavio Cotti of Switzerland does) of the Maino family show the rapid ascent into wealth after 1983. It would be churlish to link this to Ottavio Quatrocchi and Snam Progetti.

Rather than behave as though India were Afghanistan and hide behind a purdah, Sonia Gandhi needs to actualise the good in her European heritage, by transparency on her educational qualifications the wealth of her family her lifestyle and the expenses incurred on the upkeep of herself and her children and relatives.

As most of the publishers of Indian publications are drooling for invitations to 10 Janpath, they are not going to allow their editors to investigate such issues. Not, of course, that most editors wish to. They have an eye on jobs in the numerous foundations effectively owned by Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka. Hopefully, one of them is financing a crash course in Italian for Robert Vadra, for unless he speaks the language fluently, his mother-in-law will never save the exchequer crores of rupees by permitting the young couple to live under the same roof as the rest of the Mainos.

It is a commentary on the secrecy surrounding Sonia that thus far her preferences in food and drink, plus the language that she uses to communicate with her loved ones, has not been made public. In the United States, there are thousands of families where Malayalam or Bengali are spoken at home by citizens of the United States. It is an insult to the people of India to believe that they would be turned off it Sonia were to reveal details about her personal life.

Indeed, now that she is trying desperately to become prime minister, she has an obligation to make all this public and not to lie. India is maturing as a democracy, and lies will quickly get found out. No longer can the Nehru family own India, even though it still controls the Congress party.

The candour of Digvijay Singh, Ashok Gehlot, Giridhar Gamang and Shiela Dixit has to be admired. All four have admitted that they owe their loyalty not to the Republic or to the voters of their states, but to the Maino family. Should that clan tell them to do anything, those words would supercede any other. Shiela Dixit in particular was articulate that for her, only Sonia mattered, which was presumably why she worked so hard to defeat the Congress party in 1996.

The four are reminiscent of Ramrao Gundu Rao, who cheerfully said he would auction the Vidhana Soudha if asked to do so by Indira Gandhi. Mercifully for admirers of that superb structure, this request was never made. Rao was explicit that his constituency was Indira Gandhi and her two sons. Not the MLAs, whom he treated with contempt. Not the people of his state, who rejected him with the same contempt in 1983.

Today, watching the tearful performance of the four Maino chief ministers (they have made it clear that to them Maino is more important than the Congress) shows that the spirit of Gundu Rao lives on, and indeed has got further strengthened by the entry of Sonia Maino into the prime ministerial sweepstakes.

However, what of those who are foolish enough to cherish democratic ideals? Who believe that India should remain a society where authoritarian impulses get curbed, and where pluralism reigns? Who believes that a mere expression of (legitimate) concern should not lead to a political execution? Clearly, such individuals have no role in the Congress, just as those who attacked II Duce had very little future in the Italian blackshirts.

The irony is that it is the Left parties who are today supporting such undemocratic tendencies. In 1942, the Communist movement went against the forces of nationalism. It is still paying the price of that decision. Today, once again, by their support to NATO's favourite, Sonia Maino, they are again ranging themselves against the forces of national dignity in India. Hopefully, they will realise their error before it damages them permanently.

In both Kerala and Bengal, the BJP is poised to make huge gains, thanks to both the Congress and the Left being Maino followers. Both the Forward Bloc and the RSP realised this. The CPM and The CPI have -- thus far - not.

The battle of Pawar and his two friends is a fight to restore inner-party democracy in the Congress party. By fighting them, Congresspersons are sealing their own fate. Soon it will be the turn of the Jitendra Prasadas, the Rajesh Pilots, the Kamal Naths and the R K Dhawans... A little over six decades ago, a similar process took place in Germany, and made total the grip of that other admirer of Mussolini, Adolf Hitler.


Saturday, 15 May 1999

India First (Rediff)

As predicted, President Kocheril Raman Narayanan gave sanction to the Vajpayee government to prosecute Madhavsinh Solanki, one of the many involved in ensuring that the guilty escape the Bofors net. Rather than blame the President of India for a seven-week delay in approving the prosecution, a finger needs to be pointed at a government that waited eleven months before asking for sanction. Indeed, even today the Vajpayee government is not taking steps against Gopi Arora and Sarla Grewal, two others deeply involved in the decisions associated with Bofors. The case of Gopi Arora is inexplicable unless one factors in the fact of his having numerous friends in diplomatic and official circles.

Should the Vajpayee government prosecute Gopi Arora, it is to be hoped that both he as well as former defence secretary S K Bhatnagar will not hesitate to reveal the truth. Should both come clean, they should be treated with leniency, as the goal should be to ascertain who were the actual beneficiaries of Bofors, rather than just the minions who rubber-stamped whatever was put in front of them. Both Arora and Bhatnagar will redeem themselves if they were to tell the whole truth about the decision to switch from the French gun to the Swedish. That is, if the Vajpayee government actually files chargesheets against them, and gets them arrested. Both in Delhi as well as in London, there are powerful individuals against such a course.

A list of the journalists and officials who have been given jobs, assignments and scholarship -- for themselves and their family members -- by the many government-funded trusts controlled by the Maino family will be instructive. This will indicate the depth of the reach of the family into the core of the decision-taking apparatus in India, and why newspaper editors (to the satisfaction of their proprietors) are so hesitant to uncover the facts about India's most powerful family: Predebon Maino, her three daughters and her two grandchildren from the Indian son-in-law. Not their assets around the world, nor details about their lifestyles or their travels.

To take just one example, Priyanka Vadra is much more often seen at 'watering holes' of the elite Delhi circuit than she is in orphanages. Many are the editors who have bumped into the young lady at such places, and yet such sightings are NEVER written about. Just as the "free" press in India has not mentioned the whereabouts of Rahul, Indian citizens can be pardoned for not being aware that he spends more time in Europe and the United States than in India. At whose cost, no one is told. Unlike Priyanka, who for example was given a handsome fee by a Japanese association in exchange for her 'expertise' on the Nehru family, Rahul has not so far been occupied as an authority on his father's branch. As he seldom talks to his Indian relatives, preferring to spend time with the Italian ones, this is no surprise.

In a truly democratic country, much would have been written about the Sunday brunches at Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's official residence, how the guests at these intimate affairs were drawn from diplomats and visitors, with Indians largely excluded. The phone bills of Sonia Maino would have been made public. However, thanks to an indulgent government, the lady goes undisturbed even in the various state-funded organisations that she and her family control. The Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, for example, has yet to submit properly audited accounts for several expenditures to the Government of India.

However as (in effect) a No Objection Certificate is needed from Sonia before any Indian official gets appointed to an international organisation, any number of obliging officials are quietly working to ensure that the institutions remain covered in secrecy. India is the one country where an individual often sells the national interest in order to get a job at the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund. Those seconded to these and other UN-affiliated bodies usually defend alien interests rather than New Delhi's. Indeed, they appear every now and then in India as spokesmen for such interests.

Not that they can be blamed. From the choice of Louis Mountbatten as India's first Governor-General, the Nehru culture has been to subtly denigrate Indian culture and traditions, and make a selection only from European alternatives. These were seldom mainstream options, as Jawaharlal preferred esoteric versions such as Fabian socialism or Leninism. He ensured that advice from both stunted Indian industry and spawned a huge army of babus on the USSR model. Today, it is in the fitness of things that the CPI and the CPM are working hard to ensure that the Nehru heir, Sonia Maino, becomes prime minister of India. Only Sonia can revert India to the Nehru days, away from the freedoms introduced in the Narasimha Rao period.

Any visitor to 10 Janpath will be able to grasp the nuances of Sonia's style of governance. For hours each day, Arjun Singh waits outside her room, in the anteroom occupied by V George. On some days, the curtains get parted and Singh can actually behold the object of his adoration, seated on a sofa inside. Very rarely, she speaks a few words to him, either scolding him for some plot gone wrong, or patting him on the back for a success. On those days, Arjun Singh is ten feet tall. He strides into the AICC and barks out orders, with the glow of Sonia speak surrounding him.

The entire episode that saw the fall of the Vajpayee government and the sabotage of an alternative Sonia regime was marked by the absence of consultation with the Congress Parliamentary Board and the Working Committee. In this, Sonia was following the Nehru model, of seeing subordinates as kitchen staff, to be given orders to rather than consulted. In 1984, after the death of Indira Gandhi, President Zail Singh was ordered to fly back to India and install Rajiv as the new prime minister. These orders were transmitted by Arun Nehru and R K Dhawan to the President, who merely nodded in assent without giving any verbal reactions. Service staff are meant to be seen and not heard. Thus a pilot with zero governmental experience was made the head of the government.

Of course, he claimed credit for the 1984 sympathy wave, overlooking the fact that even Pranab Mukherjee would have got 400 seats in the fevered Lok Sabha polls that followed the killing of Indira Gandhi, just as a rudderless Congress got the full benefit of the (weaker) wave that followed the Rajiv assassination in 1991.

Had Sonia Gandhi called a Working Committee meeting, she would have faced no problem. In the meetings of this august body, it is not very long before Arjun Singh shouts out "Let's leave it to Madam". At this, there is pandemonium as the others scramble to say "Yes, Yes," to this brilliant idea. After the "Empower Sonia" resolution gets passed, the tension eases. Members of the CWC crack jokes about P V Narasimha Rao and Sitaram Kesri. Some may even say a few uncomplimentary things about the BJP. Others speak about how Sonia is just like the other Madam, Indira Gandhi. At this, someone may protest: "No, our Soniaji is even better", at which cries of approval will rend the air and the new Madam smile at her "advisers".

Had President Narayanan sworn in a Sonia government, it would have been one dominated by the Maino family. No existing Indian leader in the Congress dares to even look in her direction these days. In towns across Italy, the expectation is that the 600 million voters of India will soon make the Right Choice and install Sonia as prime minister of India. If the Congress tally crosses 180, this will become a near-certainty. If 220, then a certainty.

In this age of tribal loyalties, one cannot fault the Western media for ignoring Sonia's lack of formal education or the fact that her only 'qualification' is that she married Rajiv Gandhi three decades ago. Few write about the total absence of unrehearsed appearances, or the frightening fact that the Indian (and international) public do not know what her views on major issues are. That is, if she has any. No one mentions the dictatorial grip of the Maino family on what was once a political party. That would be letting down the tribe, and as the Western reporting on Kosovo has shown, the Western media are as "patriotic" as the Stalin press during 1929-52.

Clearly, standards for India have been pegged a wee bit lower than for Europe or North America, where any attempt to make an individual prime minister on the basis of marriage would have been rejected. Ask Dimitra Liani, the air hostess who married Andreas Papandreou of Greece, and who has now vanished into obscurity.

The ironic fact is that the private Sonia is actually a likeable person, warm and friendly to those she trusts. Had she remained out of public life, there would have been no reason to comment on her. But a prospective prime minister of India needs to come not just under the magnifying glass, but an electron microscope. This is what happens in mature democracies, and what would have taken place here, had there been a free press in India.

Unless the Congress party sheds its dynastic baggage, it will not survive. It is pathetic to watch the Ghulams (so aptly named) wail for Priyanka to stop her other activities and enter into the electoral fray. It is disconcerting to watch senior Congress leaders wait in the 10 Janpath anteroom for hours in the hope of catching Sonia (or Priyanka's) attention. Unless internal democracy returns in that party, it will atrophy.

Both Manmohan Singh and Sharad Pawar have the capacity to lead India. Their boss does not, as even they know. However, if the Congress gets enough seats, it is only Sonia who will come as prime minister, with Laloo holding one side of the apron and the CPI-CPM the other. The BJP is showing its capacity to respond to the future, by casting off its hardline agenda and by openly accepting the reality of coalitions. The Congress will need to cast away Dynasty if it is to survive. Those who point this out are not the enemies of the Congress. That position is reserved for those who wait in the 10 Janpath anteroom in the hope that the wind may shift the curtains enough for them to scurry out shouting, "I've seen Sonia!"


Monday, 10 May 1999

Changing to Conquer-Adjusting the BJP to Indian Reality

(Originally appeared in the 1990s in the Times of India, as published in M. D. Nalapat's book "Indutva", Har-Anand Publications, 1999)


Despite the electronic help he gets both onboard and from the
control tower, the pilot of a large aircraft has to make several
course and engine pitch corrections before he finds the right
approach for a safe landing. Similarly B]P leaders, who today ,
appear to be at loss over how to deal with being the party of
governance rather than a permanent opposition, need to identify
and actualise the course corrections required for their party to
replace the Congress as the natural beneficiary of the public
trust. What served the party well during its ascent may prove
less effective now that it has become the largest national party.

The reaction to the destruction of the Babri masjid on
December 6, 1992, is an illustration of how different India is from
countries like Pakistan and pre-Hasina Bangladesh. In both of
India’s neighbours, numerous temples have been destroyed over
the past 50 years, yet there was no national outcry. In India, the
destruction of a disused mosque generated a national uproar.
Six years after the event, the antics of the kar sevaks are still
highlighted by the international media, though neither CNN nor
BBC has yet got around to a news story on the destruction of
temples in Bangladesh or Pakistan. This is not owing to double
standards, rather it is a recognition of the belief in India as a
secular state.

Strong Centre
By behaving like Pakistani fanatics, the vandals who
lowered the prestige of 970 million people on December 6, 1992,
have gone against the very heritage that they claim to project.
Another example of such behaviour among the self—proclaimed
‘Hindutva’ fold was the ransacking of Maqbool Fida Husain's 
home in Mumbai. Any Indian citizen has a
right to the history of the subcontinent, including the mythology.
Indeed, the concept of a unified ’Hindu' society is a relatively
recent phenomenon. Logically, all those who believe in
moderation and respect for different perspectives that characterise
the philosophy of Hinduism should be accepted as being within
the fold of 'Indutva', or Indian culture.

The Congress party, which is trapped in the Nehruvian
strait-jacket, keeps harping on about the need for a ’strong
centre'. By this, it means a Nehru—style government that forces
state governments to accept its diktat on most aspects of policy.
However, rather than an all—powerful central government, what
will preserve the unity of India is the acceptance of a strong social
centre that avoids extremes and works towards a synthesis
of different trends. With Punjabis learning Bharatanatyam and
relishing dosas, and Malayalis taking to tandoori food and Daler
Mehndi, this is already happening. Jugalbandhis of north and
south, east and west, have by now become so common that they
are hardly noticed.

'Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai’
Thus, rather than return to a political centralisation that was the
economic ruin of India, our major national parties need to focus
on social and cultural ecosystems, linking them together across
regions and communities. For example, the BJP will never realise
its goal of getting a parliamentary majority on its own unless it
can attract a significant part (at least 25 per cent) of the Muslim
vote. The Bajrang Dal rhetoric which scares away Muslims will
also keep away the moderate Hindus who this time, especially
in the south and east, have increasingly preferred the BJP to the
Congress which today has adopted an unrealistic position on
both domestic and foreign policy.

An example is China. Beijing repaid Jawaharlal Nehru’s trust
in its good intentions by stealthily expropriating Indian territory,
launching a war in 1962 and repeated incursions since then.
Today, China covertly arms Pakistan with strategic weapons
against India, using so-called private companies and countries
controlled by the People's Liberation Army. It also encourages
insurgency, especially in the north-east, and is the primary
strategic partner of the ISI in its drug—financed terrorism. Despite
such a record, the Congress party has joined the CPM in
supporting Beijing in a confrontation with Indian interests.
While the Marxists have been consistent in their support for
China, it is disquieting to see the former party of Indian
nationalism in its corner.

Conspiracy theorists see a link between the muscular China
lobby in New Delhi and the flood of journalists, academics and
others visiting Beijing as state guests. However, this would be an
unfair allegation. As for reports that the Chinese regime is
covertly funding political and other groups in India through
fronts, this has not yet been conclusively proved. Unlike in the
United States, where funds originating from the Chinese
Communist Party have become a live issue, in India the activities
of the China lobby have so far escaped attention.

Strangely enough, one reason for this is the fact that the
dominant strand in strategic thinking in the United States is still
very positive about China. Those influenced by such thinking
have also absorbed the pro-China message implicit in such
scholarship. Thus, even in the political and NGO sphere, pro-US
and pro-China groups have entered into a tacit alliance. The
difference, however, is that the United States, being a moderate
democracy, is a long-term strategic partner of India, whereas the
present Chinese regime cannot be. Until the Han people enjoy
the full benefits of democracy, it will not be possible to actualise
the 'Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai’ that Nehru talked about.

Foreign Capital
The rejection by the Congress party of the nationalist centre has
given the BJP an opportunity, provided it does not subscribe to
the Nehru—style romanticism about China and Pakistan. Within
the BJP government, L. K. Advani appears to have the clearest
perspective on foreign affairs. A combination of the Advani line
of external relations and the Vajpayee thinking in domestic
policy would serve the country well. However, elements in the
BJP appear to want to reverse the order, putting into play a soft
external approach with a more exclusivist domestic approach.

What India needs urgently is to concentrate on economic
development, which includes welcoming foreign capital fuelled
not by speculative but by investment motives. Clear signals have
to be sent to Pakistan and China that India will no longer play 
possum when confronted with their covert war. Above all, we
must preserve the moderate traditions that have nurtured Indian
culture for millennia. These are among the stands that the BJP
needs to knit together for its future survival.


Friday, 30 April 1999

The enemy within (Rediff)

The silver lining in the fiasco that saw the country being pushed into yet another general election is that politicians in the 13th Lok Sabha are likely to be supercautious rather than frisky. The post-defeat inability of the anti-BJP parties to form an alternative government shows up the dangers of adventurism. This, plus the 'Narayanan Precedent' of asking for written evidence of a majority before swearing in an alternative team, is likely to prevent a short life for the next Lok Sabha.

President K R Narayanan is now the subject of an intensive whispering campaign, centred around his and his wife's friendship with the Nehru family. It is being claimed that Mrs Narayanan -- allegedly because she follows the Christian faith -- wanted Sonia Gandhi to succeed in her Operation Topple, and therefore used her (considerable) influence on the President to rig decisions against the BJP.

As evidence, these critics point to the President's immediate order to the prime minister to prove his majority; his indulgence in giving Sonia Gandhi several days to win over recalcitrants; and his refusal to give the Vajpayee government a second chance to prove its majority after the Congress's bid for a Sonia ministry collapsed.

Such comments are unfair to a deeply sincere and straightforward individual. Usha Narayanan's faith is not relevant to the political discourse. Even if she were Christian, the fact remains that the Christian community in India has done wonders in the fields of health and education. The faith is an Asian one, even though these days most believers come from Europe and the Americas. One of the unfortunate side-effects of Sonia Gandhi's pell-mell rush to become prime minister (a process she began in 1995, with the attack on Narasimha Rao) is a backlash against the innocent Christian community in India. These individuals have nothing to do with the Maino family's shenanigans, and should not be made political pawns. To target them is as unfair as it was to target the deeply patriotic Sikh community for the murder of Indira Gandhi, or to blame the Hindus for the killing of Gandhiji.

President Narayanan has one way of showing to the nation that he is not bound to the apron-strings of 10 Janpath. This is by speedily allowing the prosecution of Madhavsinh Solanki in the Bofors matter. By sitting on the file for nearly two months, the President has generated avoidable controversy over his motives, just as a similar tardiness over the Shiela Kaul file did some months ago. True, the President knows both Solanki and Gopi Arora personally -- the latter more than the first -- but such personal considerations will never come in the way of national interest where Kocheril Raman Narayanan is concerned. Clearly, the President was waiting for the political weather to clear before giving his assent, lest he be accused of partisanship. Now that stage one of the storm is over, it is likely that he will soon give assent to the prosecution of Solanki.

It is a national disgrace that several countries have got back huge amounts of kickbacks from Swiss banks, even though India has (deliberately) failed to make much headway on Bofors. Part of the reason is the open linkage between the Swiss authorities and 10 Janpath. Recently, the President of Switzerland made it a point to call on Sonia Gandhi at her government-provided residence, thus giving a clear signal of the Swiss government's determination to protect her. In the same way, the Malaysian government under Mahathir Mohammed is protecting Ottavio Quattrocchi from extradition. Clearly, both Switzerland and Malaysia can be expected to put the personal interests of 10 Janpath above the need for justice.

In this, they are joined by several bureaucrats in the HRD, home and finance ministries in India who have secretly been working overtime to protect Sonia Gandhi. Thanks to the influence of an NRI business family, the Prime Minister's Office too has thus far served as the highly effective office of Sonia's defence team. Vajpayee has paid with his job for listening to this NRI family and following the footsteps of Narasimha Rao in protecting Sonia, even to the extent of pulling up Human Resources Development Minister M M Joshi for looking into the various government-funded Nehru trusts, all of which are illegally controlled by Sonia and her children.

Hopefully, at least now Prime Minister Vajpayee will not block ongoing probes into the Nehru trusts and into the armaments and pipeline deals that made a family in Italy super rich. During the 1980s, both the brothers-in-law of Sonia Gandhi -- Walter Vinci and Jose Valdemoro -- became affluent, by means that numerous identifiable public officials in India are anxious to keep secret. Sadly for Sonia's sisters Nadia and Annouscka, both their husbands divorced them as soon as they became rich. As a result, they moved to Delhi to live in 10 Janpath, along with their mother Predebon. India being a rich country and Italy a poor one, New Delhi can certainly afford to pay for the telephone, transportation and housing charges of the Maino family, as it has been doing for years, without complaint.

Indeed, a host of visitors from Italy descended on Delhi a fortnight ago, eager to watch as their relative formally took possession of the family inheritance, the Government of India. Hopefully when the results of the next election get announced, these friends can return to watch Orbassano's first-ever prime minister get sworn in. After that, Sonia can more openly reward her friends and punish her critics, all out of taxpayer's money.

It is noteworthy that the country to which the Hope of the Nation still looks for inspiration -- and airline and telephone bills, as well as the roster of mealtime guests will confirm this -- is among the 19 pounding Yugoslavia to dust. If there should be a conflict between NATO and Indian interests, where will Sonia's preference lie? Will she be able to order missile strikes that can hit targets in Italy? More to the point, why has she so far not uttered a word of condemnation of the barbaric bombing of an independent country from bases in Italy? These are questions that should interest strategic planners in India as much as the dog that did not bark caught the attention of Sherlock Holmes.

However, it is not only in Europe that Sonia has backers. One of the worst-kept secrets in Delhi has been the interest of the Communist Chinese in a Sonia-led government. Natwar Singh needs to reply to suggestions that he indicated a willingness to implement a freeze on Agni and on nuclear tactical warheads when he spoke to Chinese officials in Beijing. All Natwar needs to do is take a lie detector test to disprove such charges, spoken by unhappy left cadres who secretly say their comrades in China forced them to back Sonia Gandhi as prime minister. It is perhaps not entirely coincidental that a CPI delegation was in Beijing at about the same time as Natwar was.

The Chinese need to realise that they should not interfere in domestic politics. The hotheads in the PLA have already done much future harm to China's long-term interests by helping Pakistan develop strategic muscle. They should not convert a future ally -- India -- into an enemy by their reckless adventurism. India and China must work together, but this is not possible so long as China gives nuclear and missile secrets to Pakistan and dabbles in Indian politics.

NATO's new doctrine of the 'divine right' of the (European-race) alliance to intervene militarily anywhere in the world means that India needs to expand the range of Agni to intercontinental levels, and to refine weaponry. This is the only deterrent to some idiot in London or Washington who may seek to duplicate a Kosovo in Kashmir.

The East Timor agitation is being fuelled by NATO in order to set up a protectorate in a volatile region. Both India and China have to concert to block these efforts, by supporting Indonesia in protecting its territorial integrity. Here too, Sonia Gandhi is silent. Perhaps she, like NATO, favours an 'independent' East Timor that will serve as a NATO base

Kashmir in India, Tibet in China, East Timor in Indonesia and Chechnya in Russia are all examples of how NATO seeks to use ethnic differences to weaken states that are likely to emerge as superpowers. The NATO-subservient regimes of Yeltsin and Habibie have thus far not been able to oblige their patrons, only because of strong public opinion. The friends of Indonesia and Russia need to convey forcefully to Moscow and Jakarta to retain the multi-religious nature of their states, and not succumb to NATO pressure.

Hopefully, instead of being a dupe of NATO, China's leaders will join with India in creating a multi-polar world order. The worst enemies of India have always come from within. The Mughals and the British could never have subjugated the land without the support of hundreds of traitors. Even today, the loudest voices against India framing sensible economic policies or creating a minimum credible deterrent come from within. In the Jawaharlal Nehru University, for example, the joke is that there are professors to spout the Chinese, the German or the American line, but none who support the Indian one. The trouble is that this is no joke. As the fawning supplication before Sonia Gandhi (and by implication her backers) has shown, we have a long way to go before being free.