The purpose of the Quad is not to cause a war but to prevent a conflict by demonstrating even to the military-minded Xi Jinping that such a war will end badly for the PLA and its army of soldiers who have never seen battle except recently across the Himalayas.
New Delhi: Despite a lobbying effort that began in 2019 after the first
meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the four Quad partners, the combination of
the PRC, Russian and Wahhabi lobbies have failed to prevent the first ever
meeting of the Heads of State (or Government) of the US, Japan, Australia and
India. It took three meetings at the Foreign Minister level (the last a short
while ago) before the 46th President of the United States Joe Biden came
forward with a proposal that a virtual summit be held of the four Quad leaders
(himself, Morrison, Suga and Modi) even before a physical meeting of the four
at the G-10 summit. It would appear that the ill-advised resistance of Prime
Ministers Trudeau and Suga to the expansion of the G-7 to the G-10 by the
addition of Australia, South Korea and India has been dropped. A G-10 makes
much more sense in today’s geopolitical environment than the G-7, while it is a
fact that the re-inclusion of Russia (thereby making the group a G-8) would
make little sense now that Moscow has signed on as the junior partner to
Beijing in the latter’s geopolitical adventures. The holding of the summit,
plus the first-ever joint statement by the four leaders, has upset the
calculations of Beijing and its associates, principally Moscow, that such a
meeting could be postponed to an indefinite future. The Pakistan lobby in the US
and the Russian lobby in India worked overtime to de-legitimize the Quad but
failed in the face of the determination of President Biden and PM Modi to
deepen the comprehensive collaboration between Washington and Delhi. It is
instructive that Vice-President Kamala Harris was present at the summit,
as her affinity for India (the country that her beloved mother was born in) is
known to her family and friends, which is why her visit to the country will
further strengthen the friendship between the two biggest democracies in the
world. The purpose of such an alliance, and indeed the Quad, is not to cause a
war but to prevent a conflict by demonstrating even to the military-minded CPC
General Secretary that such a war will end badly for the PLA and its army of soldiers
who have never seen battle except recently across the Himalayas.
KINETIC
CONFLICT POSSIBLE
Wars are not
caused by calculations as by miscalculations. Judged in this light, the rants
by Global Times, the English language companion of the Communist Party of China
(CPC) flagship, People’s Daily is a signal that the law of unintended
consequences could be leading the present leadership in the CPC to actions as
would inevitably lead to a kinetic conflict. Once launched, apart from the safe
forecast that neither side will want to risk the destruction of the human race
by igniting a nuclear conflict, it is difficult to predict the point where a
war involving the two superpowers and their respective partners will end. Given
the balance of forces, such a conflict will terminate in the overthrow of the
existing leadership of the “losing” entities, whether it be the leaderships in
Moscow and Beijing or that in Washington, Delhi, Tokyo and Canberra. Just as
the self-inflicted defeat of the Indian side in the 1962 conflict with the PRC
marked the close of the ascendant phase of the prime ministership of Jawaharlal
Nehru, whichever side gets the worse of the armed encounter (which is certain
to be carried out in multiple theatres, given the advantage of escalation dominance
held by the Quad) will see a rapid erosion in trust in the leadership and
consequent moves by either the ruling party or the people or both to depose the
individuals responsible for the situation. There are those on the outside who
regard the outpourings of the Global Times as being merely the propaganda part
of Agitprop of the CPC, but this seems unlikely. The comments and conclusions
are such as would cause amusement (or in some cases, bemusement) rather than
fear, so out of touch with facts on the ground are the stated conclusions of
the GT editorial writers.
BUBBLE
REMOVES REALITY
It is
precisely such an obvious (at least to those outside the bubble occupied by the
CPC leadership) disconnect from reality that is cause for steps designed to prepare
for the inevitability of armed conflict while talking about—and hoping
for—peace. Given that the Global Times reflects the view of the world as seen
by the leadership core of the Communist Party of China, it is clear that the
leadership of the world’s most domestically powerful political party is
completely out of touch with ground reality, and is living within the
“leadership bubble” in a world populated by Alternate Reality, much as the 45th
President of the United States, Donald John Trump, was. In his case, even the
defeat on 3 November 2020 did not shake him loose from that Alternate Reality
universe inhabited by him and his close cohorts, who still maintain that they
won the 2020 presidential polls and only foul play by the Democrats, cowardliness
by the courts and treachery by Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) caused the
swearing in of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr on 20 January 2021, rather than Trump
himself for a triumphant second term. It was the disconnect from reality that
caused the downfall of Trump, a disconnect mirrored in the feverish reports of
Trumpian media about what was going on within the US. These days, the same
quality of a separation of reportage from reality is evident in the columns of
what must be regarded as the reflector of the views of the PRC leadership, the
Global Times. In recent days, it has spoken of moves to bring Delhi and
Washington together as the equivalent of teaming up with mafiosi, forgetting
that the country that has spent more on building good relations with the US
than the next nine countries engaged in a similar effort combined is the
Peoples Republic of China. If building better ties with the US is such an
odious activity, why does the Chinese Communist Party seek to improve ties with
the world’s most powerful country on a persistent basis? Or in the Alternate
Reality that holds sway inside the Zhongnanhai bubble, are such moves good only
for the PRC and bad for other countries, who presumably should show their
wisdom and decency by signing on to the efforts being made by Beijing to
replace Washington at the top of the global pyramid? According to the Alternate
Reality revealed by Global Times, India is engaged in forming a “cabal” aimed
at the PRC, a country that enjoys a trade surplus of over $60 billion annually
(all import flows licit and illicit considered) from one of the world’s poorest
albeit biggest countries. Neither the US nor India has ever sought to degrade
the security of the PRC in the transparent manner that GHQ Rawalpindi has been
over seven decades and counting, with assistance from the PLA. Is the
combination of Pakistan and China that has been immeasurably strengthened under
General Secretary Xi Jinping not a destructive cabal targeting India? No,
according to the Alternate Reality accepted as truth in the CPC leadership and
revealed by Global Times, it is a saintly combination that ought jointly to be
awarded the next Nobel Peace Prize. It is this disconnect from reality that is
worrisome, as such lack of an anchor—any anchor—to facts on the ground were
what led some powers in the 1930s to plunge the world into a global conflict.
The 1941 attack by Germany on the Soviet Union, followed by the immediate
alliance of the UK and the US with the USSR sealed the fate of the regime in
Berlin, although their own bubble of Alternate Reality kept them from
understanding this almost till the final days of their existence. The rants of
Global Times is why the Quad is at the core a defence and security alliance,
and which is what it needs to be to enable the Indo-Pacific to overcome efforts
at converting its waters into a private lake. While their own role in such a
development seems not to have penetrated the Alternate Reality bubble, what
seems to have embedded itself in the thinking there is similar to that seen in
the Reichkanzlerei in Berlin in June 1941, which was that the Red Army would be
a pushover rather than the instrument of death it turned out to be for the
Germans. The Alternate Reality bubble in the PRC leadership appears to regard
India much as Berlin saw Moscow in an earlier era, as inconsequential. They
forget that this time around, India under Prime Minister Modi is working
towards crafting a global alliance that would ensure that a kinetic encounter
with the PLA would end only in a single direction that would be less than
welcome to the Global Times.
In the bubble world that events in recent years have revealed that the
CPC leadership core is living—and believing—in, the disconnect between ground
reality and the filtered perceptions fed by courtiers upwards to the top has
ensured that a succession of mistakes have taken relating to countries across
the present frontiers of the PRC. President Duterte is known to have a soft
corner for General Secretary Xi Jinping, and there are several tycoons in that
country who have made immense profits by tying up with Chinese businesses.
Despite their influence, the manner in which the claim (upheld by an
international tribunal) of the Philippines to the Spratly Islands was rubbished
by Beijing has cooled much of the goodwill towards that country. Given the way
in which Manila is being treated, it is only a matter of time before “money
ceases to speak”, and even Duterte will need to establish close links with the
Quad, something the armed forces have been seeking for two years. Now that it
is clear that the US under President Biden is committed to the protection of a
free and open Indo-Pacific against efforts to convert much of its waters into a
PRC lake, it is expected that Hanoi will also establish an increasing number of
linkages with the Quad, with Indonesia certain to follow. Just as the UK and
France are natural members from Europe of the Quad Plus format, so are the Philippines,
Indonesia and Vietnam within ASEAN. Indeed, a strong case can be made for
renaming the South China Sea the ASEAN Sea, as the latter designation would
more closely fit the ground reality of littoral rights over the waters. The PRC
claim is based on ahistorical accounts and maps deliberately drawn for the
purpose. Just as the time has come for the G-7 to morph to the G-10 (with the
addition of Australia, South Korea and India) as suggested by Prime Minister
Boris Johnson, the time is approaching for the Quad Plus format that includes
the five additional countries mentioned, two from Europe and three from ASEAN.
Both Laos and Cambodia will be outside the grouping, as they have joined
Pakistan in becoming a state that has adopted a position of subservience to the
dictates of Beijing.
OLYMPIC BOYCOTT GAINS SUPPORT
Once again, thanks to Global Times accurately reflecting the thinking of
the CPC leadership core about the situation in BRICS and the SCO, it is clear
that Beijing seeks to ensure that both groups bend to the dictates of the PRC.
Any country that dares to assert its independence from PRC dictates is to be
thrown out. India should never fall into the trap of leaving on its own, but
should participate fully in BRICS and SCO meetings. In each, its views need to
be presented forcefully, even as Beijing and Islamabad join together in
presenting an India-phobic viewpoint. Should General Secretary Xi Jinping not
come to India for the BRICS summit, that unfriendly gesture could be
reciprocated by PM Modi declining to travel to China for the next future
conference held there. Serious thought needs to be given of a boycott of the
2022 Winter Olympics, as public opinion in several countries is leaning towards
a boycott as comprehensive as that seen during the 1980 boycott of the Games at
Moscow. India erred in not joining ASEAN and in allowing Pakistan back into the
Commonwealth. Neither SCO nor BRICS are the personal property of any of the
member countries for them to discard those who refuse to bend to their
dictates. It is astonishing, given the pride of the Russian people, how
completely under the tutelage of Beijing that Moscow appears to have become,
and by extension a facilitator for the Pakistan military in its operations
against certain countries.
PRC, RUSSIA, PAK LOBBIED AGAINST QUAD
Enormous lobbying had been resorted to by the PRC-Russia-Pakistan lobby
in the US, the Pakistan and PRC lobby in India and the PRC lobby in Australia
and Japan to prevent the Quad summit that took place on 12 March. This has
happened despite the billions of dollars that have been spent on such efforts,
especially in the US. Both President Biden as well as Vice-President Harris
have shown that they are aware of the reality of Cold War 2.0, including that
this may switch to a kinetic form, especially given the assertive and
aggressive moves being made by the PRC across the southern and eastern arc of
its borders. In this, they are joined by Prime Ministers Modi, Suga and
Morrison.
Now that the Sino-Russian lobby together with
Pakistan have failed to block the first ever Quad Summit, the next focus is to
mobilise the well-paid assets that the PRC in particular has in Washington to
lobby for the same de-coupling of commerce from security-related tensions
between China and the US. It will be remembered that until 2020, profits from
the operations of PRC-controlled entities in India financed the PLA in its
offensives across the Himalayas as well as the finances needed for the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In effect, thanks to the de-hyphenation of the
Sino-Indian boundary dispute, tensions and conflict with trade and commerce,
India remained the second biggest contributor to the balance of payments
surplus of the PRC, after the US. The effort will be to ensure that a
collective of voices rise to a crescendo in the US demanding that “tensions
with China not stand in the way of business”. In other words, an India-style
de-coupling of commerce from security that ended only when PM Modi announced
the apps ban that stunned the Chinese side.
QUAD TO QUAD PLUS
The outbursts of the Global Times about the Quad, specifically the
increasing role of India in the group, underline the frustration felt in
Zhongnanhai at the progress being made towards a matrix of cooperation that
covers several issues, including health and technology. In an age of
bio-terrorism health too is security-related, as is technology. It cannot be
forgotten that General Secretary Xi has made no secret of his plan to equip the
military with high-tech weapons. These are not just meant for parades but for
use against countries that need to be “taught a lesson”. Once the architecture
of the Quad reaches a certain threshold of effectiveness, it is not India that
will be taught a lesson but its adversaries. A future Quad must evolve into a
Quad Plus, with only the four original members having the veto power.
Ultimately, the Quad will overshadow a UNSC that has become dysfunctional as a
consequence of Cold War 2.0 in much the same way as was the case during Cold
War 1.0. The next steps are a small secretariat as well as air, land and sea
bases where the militaries of the four countries can train together. The Daulat
Beg Oldi airfield would be a good location to have joint air exercises, while
the waters around the Senkaku islands would be the perfect location for naval
exercises. War is inevitable if those at the top fear war. This is the lesson
of the 1930s and needs to be remembered while dealing with another revisionist,
expansionist power that is threatening peace, prosperity and stability across
the Indo-Pacific.
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