Rahul Gandhi: Past, Present and Future (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

Regulation following regulation, law after law, procedure upon procedure got changed for the worse during the UPA decade, to silence from Past Rahul.

 

After several false alarms, is it possible that this time around also, Congress president Sonia Gandhi will allow her longtime retainer-confidants to yet again delay handing over the formal leadership of the party to AICC vice-president Rahul Gandhi? After the 2014 collapse of the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls, it was clearly time for a change in the party leadership. Given that members of the Congress Party are temperamentally unable to coalesce around any individual other than from the Nehru family, it was inevitable that only Rahul could make the cut, given the Vadra factor affecting sister Priyanka. With little more than a year to go before the Lok Sabha polls, Rahul needs to take over before it is too late for him to have a viable chance of setting a course that could enable Congress to challenge and even surprise the BJP. His success as party chief will hinge on whether Future Rahul will be different from Past Rahul. Throughout the ten years of the Manmohan Singh government, in which the remote control was firmly in Sonia Gandhi’s grip, there was little trace of the Present Rahul. If the Congress vice-president had any objections to the many restrictive laws and policies operationalised during 2004-14, he has kept them to himself. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, for instance, increased the powers of his officials to a level that substantially increased chances for the harassment that is the Standard Operating Procedure of corrupt officials . Rahul watched silently even while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh equated through law the bribe giver with the bribe taker, thereby ensuring that nobody, who had been forced to pay a bribe, would ever reveal that transaction. 

In coal, spectrum, petrochemicals and in numerous other fields, official decisions got taken that had no basis in any calculus except that of greed. Favoured businesspersons would buy assets and companies abroad at low prices and later offload them to PSUs at a huge premium. When Pranab Mukherjee was made Finance Minister—possibly because of his world record of imposing a tax rate of 97.25% while serving Indira Gandhi—and expectedly crafted a budget that severely damaged long-term business confidence, Rahul was as silent as when Home Minister Chidambaram introduced the Kafkaesque visa provision that no foreigner could visit India within six months of an earlier visit. Such a prohibition makes as little sense as the present rule for e-visas that only two single entry applications are allowable per person in a single year. Is India so awful that two visits would be the maximum that could be expected?

Regulation following regulation, law after law, procedure upon procedure got changed for the worse during the UPA decade, to silence from Past Rahul, although Present Rahul nowadays condemns similar genuflections to bureaucratic excess, most recently in the matter of how GST has been conceived and implemented. A senior official was fully justified in pointing out that “the present GST is neither good nor simple”. But this is what comes of a process of governance in which only the civil service, and not civil society, is seriously involved in conceiving policies and processes. 

Together with the RBI’s total failure to ensure adequate liquidity when demonetisation was introduced, and the fact that compliance is a nightmare for small and medium GST taxpayers, the possibility of a further erosion in the economy is what opens the possibility of Lok Sabha 2019 repeating 2004.

Once his party was humiliated at the polls and driven out of office, Present Rahul emerged, and this has been a welcome improvement over the past. Present Rahul joined hands with Subramanian Swamy (who is not among Sonia Gandhi’s more ardent admirers) in seeking to do away with another of the many archaic provisions in the law, “Criminal” Defamation. Post-2014, Rahul has talked in favour of lower curbs on the internet, a huge departure from his acquiescence in earlier Chidambaram-Sibal monstrosities such as the revised Information Technology Act, whose provisions have unexpectedly found favour with the present government as well. As indeed have a plethora of other pre-Modi regulations and laws that need to be eliminated if efficiency and growth, not to mention the rights of citizens in a democracy, are to be a part of the Indian experience. Even on matters as toxic to traditionalists as doing away with outdated IPC provisions on same-sex relationship, Present Rahul has taken a stand that reflects the realities of the 21st century and not the 19th clung on to by the UPA. 

On economic policy, Present Rahul has warned against tax terrorism, although he was silent during the period when Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee were handling the Finance portfolio, and raids and prosecutions were common. Not having a direct line to power seems to have made Rahul Gandhi realise that it is India’s hyper-regulated and hyper-expensive governance mechanism that is keeping the people of our country so pathetically poor. But should his party once again get back into the portals of governance, will Present Rahul soon make way for Past Rahul? Will the Chidambarams and the Sibals return to impose their colonial vision on the country, after a hiatus in which both have donned the garb of “minimum government” votaries, or will there be new people chosen? Will Sachin Pilot and Manish Tewari return to their UPA-era aloof mien from their present approachability? Will Rahul Gandhi once more forget that the English language is a boon and not a curse, or that secularism does not mean adherence only to the views of minority fundamentalists and not the moderate majority within the minority? Will he follow Sonia Gandhi in again pushing the majority community back towards second-class status? Or will Future Rahul accept that secularism means equal rights and treatment for all, rather than favoured treatment for some at the expense of the others? What is clear is that if Present Rahul morphs back to Past Rahul in the—still unlikely—eventuality of his party returning to power in 2019, he as Congress president will be attending the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Adityanath in 2024, if not earlier.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11431-rahul-gandhi-past-present-and-future 

Crown Prince seeks to transform KSA (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
THE Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is at the heart of the Arab world, which is why the British Empire worked so hard more than a century ago to wean it away from the control and even the influence of Turkey. That campaign succeeded, in some part because many living inside the vast territory that subsequently formed the modern kingdom regarded the Sufi school favoured by the Turkish Caliphate as being insufficiently religious. Instead, they began to get influenced by the teachings of an 18th century theologian, Abdel Wahab, who condemned the Sufi doctrine and asked for adherence to a much more austere world view and way of life. The Al Sauds formed an alliance with the preacher, thereby gaining legitimacy for themselves as defenders of the true faith throughout the land.
The Al Saud- Abdel Wahab partnership was strongly favoured by the British Empire, which understood the damage that it could do to the hold of Turkey over the Arab peoples that the Caliphate had dominated for so long. After the 1939-45 war between the Axis and the Allies, the US became the dominant power across the globe, overtaking the British Empire, which began its disintegration soon after the South Asian subcontinent broke free of the tutelage of London. This destruction of an empire that earlier had spanned the globe had been predicted by Winston Churchill, who had said that he had not taken over as PM in 1940 in order to “preside over the liquidation of the (British) Empire”. After the defeat of the Conservative Party in the 1945 General Elections in the UK, that task fell to Clement Attlee, who carried out the processes whereby independence was given to India and to the new state of Pakistan.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was named after the ruling family, who ensured that it remained a close ally of both the UK as well as the US so far as foreign relations was concerned. However, within the kingdom, Wahabbism became the norm, and milder versions of theology were not only disfavoured but largely eliminated. So long as followers of Abdel Wahab were convenient for the US and its allies, the policy of the Al Sauds was welcomed and backed in London and Washington. After seeing off Turkish domination, the Al Sauds were at the forefront of the opposition to Arab nationalists such as Ahmed ben Bella and Gamal Abdel Nasser, who were opposed to the policies of the US and the UK the way Mohammad Mossadeq in Iran was before he was removed from power by the CIA. Ultimately, the US-Al Saud alliance prevailed over the Arab nationalists, ensuring that the region remained in alliance with the US and the UK.
Subsequently, Wahabbis were pressed into service against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and assisted by the sclerotic leadership of Leonid Brezhnev, once again the US and its friends prevailed. However, in 2001, a carefully planned attack in New York and Washington was carried out by extremists loyal to Osama bin Laden, and from then onwards, the romance between the Wahabbis and the US-led alliance began to sour in every part of the world except Saudi Arabia and the other Wahabbi-inclined sheikhdom, Qatar. The Arabs are an amazingly talented people, and they saw that the harsh restrictions imposed by Wahabbi doctrine had shrunk domestic science and technology, such that even toothpaste had to be imported from outside. The curricula in schools and colleges within the Gulf Cooperation Council countries placed so much emphasis on theology that the rest of the subjects were touched upon much less than ought to have been the case. Those educated in schools and colleges that followed traditional curricula showed themselves unable to deal with the needs of the modern economy, such that the GCC needs the services of millions of people outside the region in order to run effectively. This has been worrying more than a few thoughtful leaders within the Arab world, and in countries such as Kuwait, several educationists have pressed for changes in curricula and in attitudes that would better fit into the 21st century rather than the 18th. Arab populations are overall as young as those in South Asia, and given the decline in oil prices, it is clear that they need to be equipped to successfully handle the complexities of business, trade and industry within the GCC.
The changes needed to ensure such a transformation have been opposed by the Wahabbi theological establishment in a manner not seen in another theology-heavy country, Iran. Despite the power of the Ayatollahs, especially Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, science and other subjects are taught with substantial finesse in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and other cities in the most consequential Shia-majority country in the world. Enter Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, to whom Iran is the deadliest foe, and to best whom it is needed to modernise Saudi society. But so far as internal policy is concerned, Crown Prince Mohammad has shown himself to be a bold reformer, who for the first time since the kingdom was established, has challenged the Wahabbi establishment and is seeking to ensure that a milder theology more in sync with the needs of modern civilisation becomes norm in Saudi Arabia, the land within which both holy cities of Makkah and Medina are located.
The education of women should be given the same importance in the kingdom as is already the case in Iran. Entering into a war with Iran will prove as self-defeating for Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman as happened when President Saddam Hussein of Iraq entered the battlefield against Grand Ayatollah Khomeini and the country he dominated. Internal reform is a whole-time process, and the external environment needs to be tranquil for Crown Prince Mohammad’s noble vision of moving his country away from the Wahabbi influence that for so long affected its policies and its institutions. Should the youthful reformer succeed, the Crown Prince will earn a place in history on the same level as his grandfather, Abdul Aziz bin Saud, the founder of the House of Saud.

https://pakobserver.net/crown-prince-seeks-transform-ksa/ 

India and the primacy of Xi Jinping (Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations)

Professor Madhav Das Nalapat sits down with Manjeet Kripalani to discuss the ascendance of Xi Jinping into the pages of the Chinese Constitution and what this new status quo means for India and it's strategic interests.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrVxynuDH9U 

Gujarat polls will test Modi’s electoral hold (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

NDA needs to ask how many believe that their days have become better since 2014.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan was recently adjudged guilty of corrupt practices by the judiciary in his country, and immediately stepped down from office. Since then, Sharif, daughter Maryam and husband Safdar have been found guilty in the Panama Papers case. Interestingly, in India, the same Panama revelations appear to have generated only a much lower degree of official attention (although of course the SIT must, as usual, have had sittings on the matter). Have the prominent names from India that were disclosed in the Panama revelations, been given the benefit of the doubt? This is, after all, a country where Coal Minister Manmohan Singh was declared guiltless by the Central government despite a scam involving the allocation of coalfields that resulted in the loss of billions of dollars to the exchequer. The reasons for which the former Prime Minister (in direct charge of Coal at the time) was found innocent of any involvement in the scam have yet to be explained, despite statements. For this is in the face of statements from some of the officials involved that the former PM was fully in the frame when the impugned decisions regarding allotment of coalfields was taken. But Manmohan Singh is not as charitable towards his successor, as witness the allegation of highway robbery made by him with reference to the 8 November 2016 demonetisation of 86% of the currency in the country. Since then, a resurgent Congress Party has persisted in a barrage of allegations of wrongdoing directed against the NDA II government, and this is expected to mount to a crescendo just before the next Lok Sabha polls. And while it is true that both A. Raja as well as Dayanidhi Maran have as Cabinet Ministers been subjected to court proceedings and worse, these were initiated while Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister.

During the 41 months that the NDA has been in charge, neither the CBI nor the ED nor the DRI or even the Income-Tax Department has prosecuted any UPA-era minister, despite the coalition being described by the BJP throughout 2010-14 as being the most corrupt in the world. 

These days, from within the NDA, much is being made of both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul being “out on bail”. What such spokespersons omit to mention is that these proceedings are owed not to anything that the government has done, but to the unconnected actions of Subramanian Swamy. Of course, a different situation prevails where the Ram Janambhoomi is concerned, as both Swamy as well as the Modi government have been working strenuously to ensure that the courts clear the way for a temple to rise on the birthplace of Lord Ram. 

It has been claimed that the election results of the Assembly polls in UP showed that the people of India welcomed demonetisation. So does the poor performance of the NDA in Punjab and Goa show that the reverse is true, or are only UP voters representative of India? Setting aside chatter about EVMs and their vulnerabilities, a more plausible explanation for the BJP’s victory was that the Muslim community got a hyper-optimistic idea of the prospects of the SP-Congress alliance as a consequence of the saturation coverage by the media of Rahul Gandhi teaming up with Akhilesh Yadav, and thereupon switched from the BSP to the SP-Congress alliance. Had they remained with Mayawati, the way it had been predicted before the Rahul-Akhilesh handshake, the outcome of the UP polls would have been very different. Of course, the BJP gained from the perception of UP voters that Narendra Modi would ensure jobs for them, a view that was diluted in its potency in states where there were incumbent governments, as for example Goa and Punjab. Such anti-incumbency being the case, the efficiency with which BJP president Amit Shah has ensured that state after state gets ruled by the BJP, may be a mixed blessing. Should there be “wave” elections, as in the Modi wave of 2014, and simultaneous polls take place to Parliament as well as the state legislatures, it is possible that a single party may dominate the political map of the country during such polls, the way the Congress did until 1967, only to make way for a challenger the next time around. The rate of growth in India during earlier years of all-India domination by a single party was around 2%. Lately, while the number of states and seats controlled by the BJP has been growing, economic growth has slowed down. As for scandals from the past such as Bofors, voters in India are not concerned about the past as much as they are about the present and the future. The question the poll managers of the NDA need to ask is how many voters believe that their days have become better since 2014 or not, for that will decide the 2019 verdict. 

Despite AAP and Congress-led efforts at reducing the esteem voters feel for Prime Minister Modi, he is still far and away the most popular politician in the country. This is the trump card of the BJP, especially in the Gujarat Assembly polls. Should BJP hold on to its majority in that state, it would indicate that voters are still hopeful of the Prime Minister delivering on his promise of more jobs and higher incomes. Had there been double digit growth in the country, Hardik Patel would have got a job through the online job sites that he applied on, and the Patidar stir may have been less consequential for the state. Patel’s arrest made matters worse, with Anandiben Patel doing the young activist the favour of making him a hero. Earlier, Home Minister P. Chidambaram had made Anna Hazare a global celebrity by incarcerating him in 2011. Should Gujarat remain in the BJP column, it would indicate that Modi’s electoral magic is still operative, and that in 2019 as well, the BJP should get the 245-plus seats the party needs to remain in power in an increasingly politically polarised country. Should the Gujarat results prove disappointing for the BJP, it would be a warning by that state’s perceptive voters that in exchange for support, voters expect a very different scale and style of performance from Modi and his ministers during their remaining months in office, than has been the case since 26 May 2014.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11332-gujarat-polls-will-test-modi-s-electoral-hold 

Xi Jinping seeks China as global vanguard (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat
 

EARLIER in these columns, it was predicted that President of the PRC and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping was on course to become the Chairperson of the party by 2022, thereby becoming the only second Chinese leader to hold the post once bestowed on Chairman Mao Zedong. This would enable a successor to take over Xi’s current titles that year, while at the same time allowing Xi to retain the primacy he holds within its decision-making structures. Six years ago and thereafter, analysts and scholars across the globe were predicting either that Xi would not reach the top, or once he did, that he was getting weakened. This columnist maintained that on the contrary, Xi was far and away the dominant force within the CCP, and would remain so.
The 19th CCP Party Congress being held in Beijing indicates the correctness of this latter view, which is these days being held across the board rather than in the relatively few locations that was the case in the initial years of Xi’s ascent to the summit of power. Xi Jinping’s strength comes from the fact that he voices the “Idea of China” that is present in the minds of the Han people in a country where they amount to nearly 95% of the population. This is that the time is nearing when the Han will once again be pre-eminent among the world’s populations.
Of course,” Han” is not so much an ethno-based label as it is a cultural group, given the broad range of ethnicities that have come together in China under this definition. The 5000-year old culture of China was not subjected to the centuries-long breakage from the past that was twice caused in India. First by the takeover of the world’s second most populous country by the Mughals and later on, by the British. Both these conquerors imposed their own cultures and mindsets on the land they ruled over, although even during such times the traditional culture of India survived within a majority of the people. What was clear in India, especially after the events of 1947, was the fusion of Vedic, Mughal and British culture into a composite that got formed into the cultural DNA of every single citizen of the Republic of India. Such an evolution of a composite culture was termed as “Indutva” by this columnist in the Times of India in 1995, in contrast to the concept of “Hindutva”, which posits a culture based exclusively on the recorded practices and attitudes of the Vedic period.
The reality is that such exclusivity of culture no longer exists in India, a country where rituals and practices of the people of all faiths incorporate elements followed in each of the three strands of cultural DNA mentioned earlier viz Vedic, Mughal and British. In the past, efforts were made during the Mughal period to incorporate both Vedic and Mughal strands into a harmonious blend, especially by Emperor Akbar and Prince Dara Shikoh. Given that every human being is a child of the same Almighty, efforts at separation of one from another weakens an entire society. Each strand needs to become a part of a composite that in the process becomes stronger than any of its components. In India, people from the south relish the cooking of the north, and vice versa. And although Lord McCauley believed that educating natives in the English language would cement loyalty to the British Empire, the converse took place. The leaders of the movement to free the subcontinent of the British comprised of individuals who spoke the language of the colonial masters fluently. Indeed, the widespread use of English in India has become an advantage for the country within the global marketplace.
Despite politicians educating their own offspring in English, the effort of politicians in India has been to deny knowledge of the English language to the poor in India, perhaps as a way of keeping them in a state of dependence. The Hindi belt states have been those where knowledge of English is among the lowest, but the new Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, has made its teaching compulsory from primary school onwards. In contrast, the Chief Minister of Karnataka (home of India’s Information Technology industry) is working hard to reduce the number of those learning English in his state, and is seeking to force schools to teach in local language, Kannada. Should he succeed, very soon Bangalore (now renamed as Bengalooru) will cease to be a global hub of knowledge industry.
In China, ever since planning began for the Beijing Olympics, the spread of the English language has been given priority, and the aim is to see that hundreds of millions more Chinese are able to read, speak and write in English by 2027 than in India. The concept of a common Han ancestry has served China well, in that it has unified the country to a substantial degree. The speech made by Xi at the start of the 19th CCP Congress was an exposition of the way in which he is seeking to position China as the vanguard of the international order. It is an objective that is breathtaking in its ambition. Xi’s calls for achieving such leadership by the use of “Win Win” techniques such that other countries would find it in their interest to cooperate with China, while those who decline to do so would be at a disadvantage. Just as Mao’s October 1949 speech heralded the fact that China had once again “stood up” after a century of subjugation, Xi Jinping’s October 2017 speech proclaims that China has not only stood up, but will soon stand the tallest within the comity of nations. The world has been put on notice.

https://pakobserver.net/xi-jinping-seeks-china-global-vanguard/ 

Idea of Islamic State gaining even while territory is lost (UPI)

By M D Nalapat

Despite triumphal assertions from capitals such as Baghdad that the Islamic State has been "defeated" in Iraq and Syria, and that its self-professed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is on the run, the organization has in reality mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including the United States and India.

In fact, these countries have been given priority in recruitment efforts, in view of their large and technologically educated populations. Embracing a "recruitment lite" model that involves minimum contact and assistance from ISIS Center, the terror organization has made attacks directed against the globe's two largest democracies a priority. IS itself is a mutation of al-Qaida that formed in the aftermath of the 2011 "Arab Spring," when the perception took root within Wahhabi extremist clusters that long-dominant traditional rulership structures in Arab countries were disintegrating, and that this was their opportunity to move toward direct control of populations.

Around $13 billion in cash and weaponry flowed during 2011-13 to those who were described by intelligence agencies within NATO and its allies as "freedom fighters." The bulk of this went to groups that subsequently melded and outed themselves as IS. The assistance given to IS elements ensured the takeover of extensive territories in Iraq and Syria, especially during 2014. To date, these advances have not been fully rolled back, and as a consequence, IS has gained in traction and thereby won over several tens of thousands of committed fighters across the globe, with many more acting as auxiliaries and sympathizers.

Among the reasons for its continuing lethality is the fact that to NATO and its allies, in effect the Shiite alliance (and its Russian partner) is regarded as representing a bigger threat than IS. And to the regional partners of the United States, the Kurds are more worthy of military action than IS.

Toxic 'idea of ISIS'

More than exploding across some regions of Iraq, Syria and pockets in North and other parts of Africa, a worrisome factor is that the "idea of ISIS" is not only still strong, but is gaining in potency across the globe. A cousin of Nazi philosophy, the creed inverts cruelty as virtue and exalts the outing of sadistic tendencies within its followers. The theology of the organization is minimal in a scholastic sense, with the emphasis being on the celebration of grotesque killings and the sanctification of acts of terror.

During 2015-16, the self-willed absence of a knockout blow against IS in the Mideast by the Obama administration led to a spread of the belief among impressionable minds worldwide that the organization is the seat of power of a new "caliph," who will lead the war against the "crusaders." The primary method of indoctrination used by IS is the Internet, especially the "deep web." This still remains an attractive, and largely undisrupted, channel. Video and other radical content may have declined in quantity and frequency, as declared by some IS watchers, but more than numbers, what counts for the organization is the fanaticism and confidence of those still signing up, and this is building up with each terror attack

Al-Qaida used as cannon fodder those individuals with only a rudimentary familiarity with theology, such as the 19 who carried out the 9/11 mass terror attacks on the United States in 2001. However, many of those who have been involved in acts traceable to IS have in the past shown almost no interest in organized religion, and have thereby escaped the radar of security agencies until it was too late. Since mid-2016, when cyber interception of IS websites and chats intensified, the deep web has become the platform of choice for key associates and affiliates, as well as the use of extensively accessed websites, including those of a pornographic nature, where chat traffic easily gets disguised in a flood of "adult" commentary, especially when disguised in language that does not reveal the meaning and intent of the chats and messages sent and received. These are by users who operate from public Internet facilities and are therefore difficult to track down.

Winning recruits

An intelligence community estimate is that only about 300 Indians have shown "active interest" in IS and that even fewer have participated in its campaigns. In the United States, the figure quoted is less than a hundred. However, these are underestimates.

Ominously, IS-al-Qaida's social media campaigns have begun acquiring sophistication. The videos are of better quality and are released more frequently and over a broader geographical area than before. Such programs are winning recruits that are seldom from ultra-religious backgrounds. Indeed, many come from moderate family backgrounds, yet get drawn to IS because of the confidence and simplicity of its message. Also, clever use is made of standard religious concepts to change the import. These include frequent references to:

-- Tawhid, which rejects democracy as it is a "man-made"law.

-- Jihad, defined exclusively as an armed struggle.

-- Taqfir, the call to expel and expose unbelievers.

-- Hijrat, migration in the cause of jihad.

IS began its global campaign of terror four years ago by declaring itself the first truly Islamic country since the medieval age. This assertion added to the belief among impressionable individuals bred on a diet of hatred and contempt for non-Wahhabis that the time had come for volunteers to undertake "hijrat," but not necessarily to IS-controlled territories. This has instead come to mean not physical, but "thought migration" to the concepts and commands of the IS leadership. As a consequence, IS is shifting its focus from concentrations in specific territories to small (sometimes a single individual) groups that are dispersed across the globe and get into a mode of readiness to carry out "lone wolf" (or "wolf pack") attacks in target states.

The process of radicalization across the Internet includes:

(a) Online phishing: identifying those who are repeatedly making comments on violent posts or liking such posts, even though 99 percent of attempts to recruit don't work.

(b) Grooming a selected target via encrypted chat and message apps and through direct contact. Once trust is established, instructions are mostly on apps such as WickR, with messages self-destructing in 1 minute. After trust has begun to be established about bona fides, the recruiter asks the target to produce a video or audio so that he can legitimately claim that the potential terrorist is an IS soldier. Thereafter, orders are given to attack in ways that have now been noted as the signature of IS terror strikes. The actual execution of the attack is usually through knife and vehicle attacks where guns are unavailable. While there is sometimes live streaming of terror attacks on Facebook, Periscope, Twitter, etc, this is often dispensed with by fighters for fear of capture, even though the IS top command favors such methods as a means of demonstrating its continuing lethality. It has even claimed control for the recent Las Vegas shootings, but as yet no data has been released by U.S. authorities about the Internet-surfing habits of the perpetrator or whether he had recently been in locations known to host clusters of IS facilitators and motivators

A study of about 900 IS fighters' data from online social media platforms was carried out six months ago by analysts expert in the Middle East. The "likes" and "mentions" on tweets were tabulated in order to understand the influencers. The most influential of such hidden recruiters of IS were from the online world. The most important such recruiter was an Indian, based in Bangalore. The profile Shami Witness was a major cheerleader at the age of only 20. Seventy percdent of those who went to Syria from all over the world relied on what Shami told them, only because he was continuously tweeting about the latest events. The presence of such individuals is why India needs to keep its resources focused on IS and al-Qaeda.

Interestingly, less than 15 percent of jihadists in India, be they of the SIMI, Indian Mujahideen or other ultra-Wahhabi fronts, were educated in Islamic religious institutions. This trend is similar to that in the rest of the world, where numerous criminals and drug dealers, with zero association to religion, joined IS and overnight became practitioners of terror and its plots, more because they were discards in regular European society and had no hope of resurrection.

How to counter the idea

The idea of the self-declared caliphate, even if IS gets subjugated in the territorial war, can be fought only with a better idea, based on tenets revealed in the Holy Koran. Such a move is of immediate relevance in India, where action needs to be taken before the idea of IS gains in acceptance. Theology as preached by IS essentially posits that a Muslim is not a Muslim if he does not follow the organization's ultra-Wahhabi line. A grounding in the moderate practice of Islam can prevent Muslims from straying to Wahhabism and Salafism. The need is to popularize the true religion (rather than its extreme interpretation) in local languages and not just allow the main vehicle for such dissemination to be Arabic.

IS is conducting propaganda in 11 languages, hence the need to disseminate counter-content in multiple world languages. The fact is that the extremists are winning because of the Obama administration's willful failure to eliminate the territory controlled by IS when it had the chance to. Sufi and moderate tendency continues to remain that of the mainstream in India but these are losing ground in Indonesia and seems to have largely lost the battle to Wahhabi extremism in Pakistan, as also in several radicalized patches in the Middle East and elsewhere. Along with guns, what is needed to be deployed are ideas, and on this front, the Trump administration in the United States still seems to be searching for strategies.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/Voices/2017/10/16/Idea-of-Islamic-State-gaining-even-while-territory-is-lost/7001508157253/ 

India at centre of ISIS recruitment drive (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

ISIS has mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including India.

Despite triumphal assertions from capitals such as Baghdad that ISIS has been “defeated” in Iraq and Syria, and that its self-professed Caliph, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, is on the run, the organisation has, in reality, mutated into a form that is on the cusp of creating severe security challenges to the major powers, including India. In fact, this country has been given priority in recruitment efforts, in view of its (a) history, and (b) its large and technologically educated population. ISIS is a mutation of Al Qaeda and was formed in the aftermath of the 2011 “Arab Spring”, when the perception took root within the Wahhabi extremists that the traditional rulership structures in Arab countries were disintegrating, and that this was their opportunity to move to a higher stage of deadliness. Around $13 billion in cash and weaponry flowed during 2011-13 to those who were described by intelligence agencies within NATO and its allies as “freedom fighters”. The bulk of this went to groups that subsequently melded and outed themselves as ISIS. The assistance given to ISIS elements ensured the takeover of extensive territories in Iraq and Syria, especially during 2014. To date, these advances have not been fully rolled back, and as a consequence, ISIS has gained in traction and thereby won over several tens of thousands of committed fighters across the globe, with many more acting as auxiliaries and sympathisers. Among the reasons for its continuing lethality is the fact that to NATO and its allies, the Shia alliance (and its Russian partner) represents a bigger threat than ISIS, while to the regional partners of the United States, the Kurds are more deserving of attention by local militaries than ISIS. Turkey in particular has routinely assisted Wahhabi terror groups that are battling with US-backed Kurdish militias, thus far to no blowback from Washington.

IDEA OF ISIS

More than exploding across some regions of Iraq, Syria and pockets in North and other parts of Africa, a worrisome factor is that the “Idea of ISIS” is not only still strong, but is gaining in potency across the globe. The theology of the organisation is minimal in a scholastic sense, with the emphasis being on the celebration of cruelty and the sanctification of acts of sadism and terror. During 2015-16, the absence of a knockout blow against ISIS by the Obama administration led to a spread of the belief among impressionable minds worldwide that the organisation is the seat of power of the “Caliph”, who will lead the war against the “Crusaders”. As effective is the fact that the primary method of indoctrination and spread used by ISIS is the internet, especially the “Deep Web”. This still remains an attractive, and largely undisrupted, channel. Video and other radical content may have declined in quantity and frequency, as declared by some ISIS-watchers, but more than numbers, what counts for the organisation is the fanaticism of those still signing up, and this is building up. Al Qaeda used as cannon fodder individuals with some familiarity with theology, such as those who carried out the 9/11 mass terror attacks on the US. However, many of those involved in acts traceable to ISIS have in the past shown almost no interest in organised religion, and have thereby escaped the radar of security agencies until it was too late. Since mid-2016, when cyber interception of ISIS websites and chats intensified, the Deep Web has become the platform of choice for key associates and affiliates, as well as the use of extensively accessed websites, including those of a pornographic nature, where chat traffic could get lost in the flood of “adult” commentary, especially when disguised in language that does not reveal the meaning and intent of the chats and messages sent and received, usually by users who are operating from public internet facilities and are therefore difficult to track down.

MEANWHILE, IN INDIA

Some analysts have been quick to declare that the Idea of ISIS has not really found a platform in India due to the syncretic nature of Indian Islam and the centuries of Sufism that has fashioned the religion in India as an assimilated and subcontinent-centric faith. It has even picked up the concept of caste from Hinduism, with the “Brahmins” being the Syeds and the “Vaishya” being the Ansaris. However, terrorism is never about large numbers, except of victims. It is always the minority amongst the minority that drives recruitment. Since Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister in 2014, there has been a drive to portray not just him, but the entire country as being intolerant and disrespectful of its minorities. In view of the steady expansion of the minority population in India, as compared to its near-elimination in Pakistan, as well as the travails experienced by Hindus in Bangladesh, it is ironic that Dhaka and Islamabad are the two centres from where online rants about “Intolerant India” are most frequent. The expectation is that the spread of such beliefs will facilitate recruitment of gullible individuals into the ISIS network, especially those with a background in technology. ISIS is looking to improve the sophistication of its surveillance, control and destructive methods, and needs high-quality and highly committed brainpower to ensure this, which is again why India has been made a priority. In this country, the continued onslaught of ISI-sponsored (but Hindu-named) elements, inspired acts of violence such as “beef lynchings” etc., continue to feed into the global Hate India campaign of the ISI and its fellow travellers. This campaign is geared towards a widening of sectarian tensions and to instil fear in the minority community. The calculation of such elements is that even if 0.001% of 170 million Muslims in India radicalise to ISIS-Al Qaeda levels, India will have 1,700 recruits to extreme militancy. Given the small size of most of global ISIS cells, this number (once dispersed and organised) would be sufficient to cause more than a hundred thousand deaths through mass terror attacks.

WINNING RECRUITS

An intelligence community estimate is that only about 300 Indians have as yet shown “active interest” in ISIS, and that even fewer have participated in their campaigns. However, this is an underestimate. Ominously, ISIS-Al Qaeda’s social media campaigns have begun acquiring sophistication. The videos are of better quality and are released more frequently and over a broader geographical area than before. Such programs are winning recruits that are seldom from ultra-religious backgrounds. Indeed, many come from moderate family backgrounds, yet get drawn to ISIS because of the confidence and simplicity of its message. Also, clever use is made of standard religious concepts to change the import. These include:

Tawhid: which rejects democracy as it is a “man made” law.

Jihad: defined exclusively as an armed struggle.

Taqfir: the call to expel and expose unbelievers

Hijrat: Migration in the cause of jihad.

ISIS began its global campaign of terror four years ago by declaring itself as the first truly Islamic country since the medieval age. This assertion added to the belief among impressionable individuals bred on a diet of hatred and contempt for non-Wahhabis that the time had come for volunteers to undertake “Hijrat”, but not necessarily to ISIS-controlled territories. This has instead come to mean not physical, but “thought migration” to the concepts and commands of the ISIS leadership. As a consequence, ISIS is shifting its focus from concentrations in specific territories to small (sometimes a single individual) groups that are dispersed across the globe and get into a mode of readiness to carry out “Lone Wolf” (or “Wolf Pack”) attacks in target states.

The process of radicalisation across the internet includes:

(a) Online phishing: identifying those who are repeatedly making comments on violent posts or liking such posts, even though 99% attempts to recruit don’t work.

(b) Grooming a selected target via Telegram and through direct contact. Once trust is established, instructions are mostly on WickR, with messages self-destructing in one minute. Then the recruiter asks the target to produce a video or audio so that he can legitimately claim that the potential terrorist is an ISIS soldier. Thereafter, orders are given to attack in ways that have now been noted as the signature of ISIS terror strikes. The actual execution of the attack is usually through knife and vehicle attacks where guns are unavailable. While there is sometimes live streaming of terror attacks on Facebook, Periscope, Twitter etc., this is often dispensed with by fighters for fear of capture, even though the ISIS top command favours such methods as a means of demonstrating its continuing lethality. It has even claimed control for the recent Las Vegas shootings, but as yet no data has been released by US authorities about the internet surfing habits of the perpetrator or whether he had recently been in locations known to host clusters of ISIS facilitators and motivators.

A study of about 900 ISIS fighters’ data from online social media platforms was carried out six months ago by analysts based in the Middle East. The “likes” and “mentions” on tweets were tabulated in order to understand the influencers. The most influential of such hidden recruiters of ISIS were from the online world. The most important such recruiter was an Indian, based in Bangalore. The profile Shami Witness, was a major cheerleader at the age of only 20 years. 70% of those who went to Syria from all over the world relied on what Shami told them, only because he was continuously tweeting about the latest events. The presence of such individuals is why India needs to keep its resources focused on ISIS and Al Qaeda. Interestingly, less than 15% of jihadists in India, be they of the SIMI, Indian Mujahideen or other ultra-Wahhabi fronts, were educated in Islamic religious institutions. This trend is similar to that in the rest of the world, where numerous criminals and drug dealers, with zero association to religion joined ISIS and overnight became practitioners of terror and its plots, more because they were discards in regular European society and had no hope of resurrection.

HOW TO COUNTER THE IDEA

The idea of the self-declared Caliphate, even if ISIS gets subjugated in the territorial war, can be fought only with a better idea, based on tenets revealed in the Holy Quran. Such a move is of immediate relevance in India, where action needs to be taken before the Idea of ISIS gains in acceptance. Theology as preached by ISIS essentially posits that a Muslim is not a Muslim if he does not follow the organisation’s ultra-Wahhabi line. A grounding in the Indian practice of Islam can prevent Indian Muslims from straying to Wahhabism and Salafism. The need is to popularise the true religion in local languages, including Urdu, and not just allow the main vehicle for such dissemination to be Arabic. ISIS is conducting propaganda in 11 languages, hence the need to disseminate counter-content in Indian languages, so that the Sufi and moderate tendency continues to remain that of the mainstream in India, even while it is losing ground in Indonesia and seems to have largely lost the battle to Wahhabism in Pakistan.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/11275-india-centre-isis-recruitment-drive 

Economy roadblock hits Modi Juggernaut, midlife crisis for Modi government? (NewsX)

It has been little over three years since Modi government came to power and initially it did seem as if the government could do no wrong. But just when it seemed that they hit their high point, things suddenly started to go wrong for them. So, in this episode of The Roundtable, we are discussing has the government hit a roadblock? or to say has government started losing its sheen? Well to discuss this we are joined by an eminent panel including Manish Tewari, National Spokesperson of Congress; Pavan Varma, Leader of JDU; Narendra Taneja, National Spokesperson of BJP and Dr Madhav Nalapat, Editorial Director of The Sunday Guardian in conversation with our Senior Executive Editor, Priya Sahgal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zjd9eCJIcg 

India’s fake secularists and phoney liberals (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

The fact that a Dalit youth has been appointed as Head Priest of the Manappuram Shiva Temple in Kerala has been entirely ignored by the phoney liberals.

A dictionary would show that secularism mandates equal treatment for people of all faiths. Ancient India welcomed people of faiths entirely different from what was then practised within the subcontinent. Conversely, it would be difficult to argue that all faiths were treated the same during the six centuries when the Mughals ruled much of India, or during the three centuries when it was the turn of the British to be the masters. While there was probably discrimination against Dalits and some “backward castes” during what may be called the Vedic (i.e. pre-Mughal) period, it was the Hindus who were at the receiving end of discrimination during Mughal rule. The mistreatment continued into the British period. The new colonial masters ensured that much of the Hindu temples and their lands and properties that were left after the Mughal period were taken over by the state, while prime plots of land in the cities were gifted for the construction of churches. Hence, while there existed historical grounds for post-1947 affirmative action in support of the Dalits, as also some “backward castes”, the continuation by Jawaharlal Nehru and his successors of Mughal and British-era policies that discriminated against the Hindu community was uncalled for. Nehru seems to have been taken aback during 1935-46 by the growing support of Muslims in the subcontinent to the concept of Pakistan. He apparently came to the conclusion that the best way of preventing a re-igniting of separatist sentiments among the Muslims who remained in India after Partition was to give them additional privileges. The post-1947 provisions relating to minorities in the laws and practices of the country have instead had the predictable effect of increasing rather than reducing feelings of separation between “minority” and “majority”.

Unexpectedly for a BJP Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee retained in full the practices initiated by Nehru, rather than ensure a transition to genuine secularism through doing away with differential treatment by the Central, state and local governments to people of different faiths. Narendra Modi appears to have decided to put off to his second term such a rectification of colonial practice through phasing out the Nehruvian distortions of the secular ideal. The PM has instead been focusing his efforts on creating a cashless economy and a zero-tax evasion society during his first term. It speaks for the self-confidence of Modi that such feats are being attempted through the same colonial model of administration and law that the country has been choking under throughout its seven decades of “Independence”. Thus far, the Prime Minister has not accepted the counsel of those who have called for a complete break from the past in matters of both personnel as well as policy, and has decided instead on a policy of a more gradual incremental change.

Moving in lockstep with fake secularists are India’s phoney liberals. These look to cues from CNN and BBC while fashioning responses to events. Which is probably why they have almost entirely ignored such events as a Dalit youth being appointed as the Head Priest of the Manappuram Shiva Temple in Kerala. The concept of caste as a consequence of birth belongs in the same lunatic asylum as Adolf Hitler’s racial theories, and yet to the “liberals”, the temple appointment is not even a hundredth as important as demanding that the Rohingyas get resettled from Myanmar to India. The 22-year-old Yadukrishna represents the spirit of his faith before its calcification began through the adoption of “caste by birth”. The “liberal” media seems to be almost ignoring the new Manappuram Shiva Temple Head Priest and his guru, Aniruddhan Tantri, who is quoted as having correctly pointed out that the Vedic concept is that “one becomes a Brahmin by his or her deeds and not by birth”. If India had more genuine and less fake liberals, by now there would have been hundreds of Yadukrishnas conducting rituals in traditional style at Hindu temples across the land.

Another sign of the distance our country needs to traverse before it can earn the tag of being “liberal” is the shoddy example of the Indian Navy. Another of the numerous institutions in India still loyal to the hypocrisies and misperceptions of the Victorian era (at a time when the UK itself has moved far beyond such tommyrot), the Navy has dismissed simply for having undergone a sex change operation at her own cost, and that too while on leave. Both the Army as well as the Air Force have shown the absurd prejudice against the induction of women in combat wings to be wrong, and so should the Navy. Prime Minister Modi has often spoken about the need to ensure justice for women, and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should therefore step in to ensure justice for Sabi.

India is ranked even below North Korea in health and nutrition. The primary reason for this is a hypocritical and self-obsessed ruling class. “Liberals” in India such as Palaniappan Chidambaram oversaw the passing of laws that would have raised eyebrows even in North Korea or Saudi Arabia. 21st century India has become the easiest country in the world to get arrested in. Genuine secularism and liberalism is needed to cleanse the nation of the havoc caused by toxic policies. India has millions of truly liberal heroes and heroines such as Sabi. We have millions of genuinely secular citizens such as Yadukrishna. They need to be celebrated and empowered so that India evolves into the genuinely secular and liberal state that it needs to be, in order to thrive and even to survive.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11244-india-s-fake-secularists-and-phoney-liberals 

Russia pays price for Snowden (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
When Empress of the Beltway, Hillary Rodham Clinton, was Secretary of State and during the nearly two years of Obama’s second term when her writ among most of the senior denizens of Foggy Bottom was still absolute, more than two hundred employees of that globally consequential department were tasked with using (a) the internet (b) NGOs (c) the media, especially the more prestigious outlets within the Atlantic Alliance and (d) political parties and leaders. The purpose was to ensure the removal of a regime or a politician regarded as inconvenient (ie not responsive to “advice”) and his or her replacement with a substitute who was malleable. Hillary Clinton’s greatest success was the downfall of Hosni Mubarak.
Later, in pursuance of her longstanding view that Wahabbism was the natural order of things within most Muslim-majority countries, especially in the Arab world, Clinton backed Mohammad Morsi over his opponent. The victory of that individual was not the only success that the State Department’s regime change enthusiasts celebrated, there were more, and across the world. However, a geopolitical red line was crossed by the orchestrated overthrow of Viktor Yanukyovich, the Russian-speaking elected President of Ukraine. Eager to ensure the entry of Ukraine into both NATO as well as the EU, considerable effort was lavished on fomenting a Ukrainian version of the Oust Mubarak episode, including through NGOs and other organisations run by billionaires, such as the Omidyar and Soros networks.
Hillary Clinton also signed off on plans to ensure a blackening of the reputation of Vladimir Putin, who was unlike Gorbachev and Yeltsin, in that he believed that Russia was big enough to merit a foreign policy of its own, rather than follow the US line in the manner of Japan and (barring a few instances of contrary behaviour) the Philippines. The Clinton-led Putin-phobic network very soon came into the attention of the Federal Security Bureau (FSB) in Moscow, which inflltrated its own agents into the US State Department’s “Discredit Putin” campaign and thereby was able to fathom the range and depth of the operation. Given the ruthlessness and unforgiving nature of the 65-year old President of the Russian Republic, it is likely that he would not have wished Hillary Clinton to prevail over Donald Trump.
Indeed, Putin himself is being characterised in the largest media outlets in the country as so powerful that some of those elected to office in the US are in effect his puppets, a charge explicitly levelled by Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump during the Presidential campaign. Naturally, the proof for such assertions is shaky and scant. There must have been Russian intelligence intrusion into the 2016 campaign, but probably no more than that of countries that have for decades had substantial networks in Washington and other key cities, countries which include the UK and Israel. For the latter, the US is not just be best but the only external guarantor of its continued existence, an important factor, given the history of genocide of the Jewish people, especially in Europe during the third and fourth decades of the last century.
Given that some very large states still publicly call for the destruction of Israel, there is some basis for the sometimes disproportionate reflexes of the Jewish homeland to some global and regional events and personalities. Since January 20, the day Trump was sworn in, the avalanche of “anonymous but authoritative” abuse has been constant, so much so that the campaign (and not its target, Donald Trump) is hollowing out the ability of Washington to nudge and influence events worldwide, including in the manner favoured by the Beltway establishment, several of whose members and most of whose policies have been embraced by the US President, who has been battered by the constant threat of impeachment and removal, but who still gives evidence of fighting back at his detractors (and sometimes his friends).
What is the explanation for such an intelligence agency driven cannibalisation of the power of diplomatic intervention of Washington? Part of the cause vests in the fact that more than 900 names for consequential positions were selected by the Clinton machine even before the votes were counted, so sure were they of victory. These include several who are still in significant posts, and others with reach into the media and think-tanks, each out to revenge the disappearance of their chances because of the election of Donald Trump. Partly, it is because of the rage felt by hundreds of Republican faithfuls who have been excluded from consideration for top jobs because of their history of bad-mouthing Trump, including sometimes in fora directed by the Clinton machine. These want Vice-President Mike Pence to take over, as he would be unlikely to be as unforgiving of past insults to Trump as the current Head of State is.
However, the most important factor behind the demonization of Russia within the US establishment (including the vast swathes of media comfortably embedded in that entity) is the desire for revenge on the part of the CIA and other intelligence agencies, especially the National Security Agency (NSA). They seek to exact a considerable price on Russia (and especially Vladimir Putin) for having given asylum to Edward Snowden, the idealist who took seriously those who claimed that the US was always on the side of freedom and democracy. More than the gifting of Ukraine to the influence of the Atlantic Alliance, it is the return of Snowden to the US that would calm tempers in that city, and lead to the sputtering away of the infowar (or disinfowar) against the Russia led by Putin. The campaigner for freedoms has to be made an example of, something not possible as long as he has the protection of Moscow. Hence the campaign of calumny against Russia, in which President Trump is collateral damage.

https://pakobserver.net/russia-pays-price-snowden/ 

Is Rahul right in defending the dynasty debate? (NewsX)

This week in Cover Story we take a look at the dynastic debate that has been flagged off by a dynastic scion fed up of being apologetic about his succession plan. He didn't bother to defend dynasty but just claimed that this is the way India is run. Cleary, dynasty is a sore topic whether in Bollywood or politics. It has also permeated the corporate world - whether it's the Ambanis of Reliance, the Burmans of Dabur, the Goenkas of RPG, the Chauhans of Parle, or the Singhs of DLF Group. So is Rahul Gandhi right when he says so?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_2oE95Y9sc 

Avoid mistakes of Punjab and Kashmir with ISIS (Sunday Guardian)

By M D Nalapat

Largely unreported in the media, Indian nationals who joined ISIS continue to be killed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and even the Philippines.

In the United States, those without medical insurance have to wait until an illness turns critical for them to be admitted to a hospital, despite healthcare in such cases being several times more expensive than when an ailment is battled at an early stage. Similarly in India, very often a security threat develops in a climate of official denial, often for decades, before erupting. Take Kashmir, where the Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Abdullah accord facilitated the entry of Wahhabi groups into the Valley beginning in the 1970s. Several hundred religious schools mentored by religious radicals were set up, even as hundreds were allowed to return from the Pakistan-controlled side to those parts still left in India. These were largely left alone by security agencies as being merely “pious youth”, yet it was these individuals who participated in the genocide of Pandits in Kashmir. For close to two decades ending in 1989, the steady indoctrination of Kashmiri youth by Wahhabi groups, intent on duplicating the Afghanistan strategy in India, was underplayed by security agencies. In Punjab as well, J.S. Bhindranwale was sponsored by no less than a Union Home Minister, because he opposed the political and personal rivals of Zail Singh within both the Congress as well as the Akali Dal. Those active in the ISI-sponsored Khalistan movement in Canada, the US and the UK were allowed free entry into the Punjab to spread their toxic message. Foreign financiers and publicists for Khalistan should have their visas cancelled. Those recruited by ISIS across India should not be indulged as “pious” or “misguided” youth, but as vectors of terror needing to be sanitised before causing mass casualties.

ISIS represents a more potent threat to the stability of India because of the boundary-less appeal of the core doctrine of the movement, which is that its leadership alone has the knowledge and the will to prevail over its foes and to provide a governance system that it claims would approximate that of the golden age of Islam. The takeover this year of Marawi in the Philippines by ISIS may inspire clusters elsewhere to attempt similar land grabs in locations where they confront inadequate or incompetent security forces. Takeovers of towns even for a few weeks would create a destabilising dynamic and spread of the movement within several countries where unemployment and misgovernance are rife. Add to that the potential for small groups of recruits anywhere in the world to commit localised acts of mass terror. These include the 80-plus attacks—with close to 700 casualties—carried out in Europe and North America since 2015. The region around India has already been systematically infiltrated by ISIS through groups such as the Jundul Khalifa Bilal al Hind and the Wilayat Khorasan. Security agencies need to keep pace with such an expansion. While two dozen modules in India have been discovered and destroyed, it could be that ISIS is still in the process of building up its network in India, before it begins launching attacks on the scale seen in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Security agencies need to work out counteroffensives that multiply the use of cyber and psywar before ISIS graduates from the stage of building up its capabilities to joining in the ISI’s existing non-conventional war against India.

Conservative (official) estimates are that around 400 Indian nationals have been confirmed as having been recruited into different cells of ISIS, but the number is almost certainly much more.

ISIS, the latest avatar of global Wahhabi terror, is distinguished by the sophistication of its social media usage and reach. Given the determined use of encrypted methods of communication by extremists, it is certain that a large proportion of new recruits to ISIS in India are as yet unknown to the security agencies. Conservative (official) estimates are that around 400 Indian nationals have been confirmed as having been recruited into different cells of ISIS, but the number is almost certainly much more. Worse, more than 4,700 radicals from Malaysia, Indonesia, Maldives, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been confirmed as having joined ISIS battle groups in Syria, Iraq and Libya. For them, India is a tempting alternative target, now that the organisation is being pushed back from the territory it has controlled since 2014. 

Among the reasons against taking in Rohingyas is the fact that the terror hubs in Bangladesh are as enthusiastic as their counterparts in Afghanistan and Pakistan in planning for “bringing back through jihad the glory of the past” to India. Largely unreported in the media, Indian nationals who joined ISIS continue to be killed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and even the Philippines. A recent casualty was a youth from Kasargod in Kerala, Mohammad Marwan. Over the past two years, estimates by global security agencies compute the number of Indian citizens killed during confrontations with ISIS as being in excess of thirty.

The earlier history of downplaying threats in Punjab and Kashmir until it was too late to save hundreds of lives should not be repeated in the case of ISIS. The virus needs to be eliminated while still in its initial stages of progression, as otherwise it could mutate into forms that may take decades to overcome.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/11157-avoid-mistakes-punjab-and-kashmir-isis 

EU ignores Catalan & Kurdish Human Rights (Pakistan Observer)

Geopolitical Notes From India | M D Nalapat

 
THE European Union is lavish with its advice to countries, especially those that in the past were colonies of one or the other European power. Human rights is a subject brought up again and again, for example in the case of the Rohingyas, for whom Oxford University has sought to erase Aung San Suu Kyi’s decades of battle against military dictatorship for not taking in Rohingya refugees. The university removed even a portrait of the leader who set aside family and friends to serve years of house arrest and harassment rather than compromise by escaping to the UK, the country that was home to her husband and children. Churlish behaviour, especially in the context of so many from that university holding important positions in the same UK Govt that refuses to take in any Rohingyas, while demanding that countries much poorer open their doors.
Nor is there any rush to admit at least a few tens of thousands of the 600,000 Rohingyas who over the past year have been forced to relocate from their earlier homes as a result of strife. There seems no intent to even admit a few hundred of these unfortunate people, despite the reality that their lives would be spent in some squalid slum were they to be settled in South Asia, in contrast to the high-quality council houses that they would be entitled to in the UK. Indeed, it must be said that a rising proportion of such housing is now being allocated to those who have migrated to the country from trouble spots, even though the numbers are still far below those in, for example, Jordan or Turkey Given that the European Union has free movement between its internal borders, it ought to make little difference whether Catalonia were a separate EU member or remains part of Spain. It is clear that the government in Madrid does not have the sensitivity or the will needed to ensure justice for the disaffected Catalan minority in Spain.
After the disgraceful resort to force by the Spanish police over what remained an entirely peaceful vote for freedom, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of the Catalan people wish to be separated from Spain. The only reason why Madrid does not agree is that the rest of Spain wishes to continue using the wealth of Catalonia for itself, whereas an independent state would retain such revenues, except that share which would go to the EU. It is solely for the sake of the extra cash that it gets from Catalonia that the Mariano Rajoy government is willing to use force to subdue the Catalans. For national boundaries have very little significance vis-a-vis other member-states in a “boundaryless” EU.
Catalonia has the resources both human and financial to be a viable economy, and given the overwhelming support for self-rule expressed in the independence referendum, the EU needs to ensure that the wishes of this talented people needs to be granted. Spain itself may find that such a separation would do it little harm, and that it may become a more cohesive country as a result, with a political structure free of any ambivalence towards Spanish nationalism. Generalissimo Francisco Franco ensured that his DNA entered that of the Royal Family of Spain. While the King of Spain appears to be a perfect gentleman, the same cannot be said of his excitable Prime Minister, especially after his ego was puffed up because of the degree of warmth and praise shown by the individual holding the most consequential job in the world. Donald John Trump.
What took place in Catalonia reinforces the complaint of its people that they are being treated as second-class semi-citizens by the Spanish-speaking majority. Catalonia wishes to be free, and if the EU’s protestations of respect for human rights and democracy are worth anything, Brussels would ensure such a transfer of authority from Madrid to Barcelona. The Catalans should not be treated as shabbily as the Kurds have been. That nationality has been the strongest bulwark of NATO and its members for decades, and yet badly treated. Neither the US nor the EU wish to anger the GCC and other Arab states by supporting the call for an independent Kurdistan out of Iraq. The reality is that both Iraq as well as Syria are broken, and a partition is the only way out of the present civil war.
This conflict is overt in Syria and latent in Iraq, where the Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions have mentally separated from each other. In Syria, the Kurdish region, the locations where Wahabbis are in command and the rest of the country (which remains under the control of Bashar Assad) are separate enclaves in all but name, and a formal partition is called for there as well. As for Turkey and Iran, the Kurdish regions in both need to be given a high degree of autonomy, else separatist movements may gather steam. Unfortunately, at present it seems that neither Tehran nor Ankara appreciate the need to ensure that Kurdish people who are their citizens should be given rights and freedoms rather than repression.
Given the assistance offered by the Kurds, including in the fight against IS (where only they are an effective force against Daesh), it is an even bigger disgrace than the stony face shown to Catalonia by the EU that Brussels is doing nothing to prevent the Kurds from remaining victims of discrimination. Baghdad and Damascus will need to accept the inevitable and give the Kurds in the two countries the freedom that this ancient race has earned through its moderate ethos and its fighting prowess against Wahabbi extremists. The EU needs to look at itself and its moral imperfections before lecturing others about such matters.

https://pakobserver.net/eu-ignores-catalan-kurdish-human-rights/